Lawrence McDonald 5.0 24 ideas
Founder, Bear Traps Report
After 1 day
68%winrate
+1.1% avg
13W / 6L · 19/21 ideas
After 1 week
63%winrate
+1.5% avg
12W / 7L · 19/21 ideas
After 1 month
N/A
8/15 min ideas
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
By sector
Stock
13 ideas
+5.8%
ETF
10 ideas
-9.5%
Crypto
1 ideas
Top tickers (by frequency)
BHP
2 ideas
100% W
+5.9%
XLF
2 ideas
—
—
CRM
1 ideas
100% W
+13.8%
ADBE
1 ideas
100% W
+18.9%
NVDA
1 ideas
—
—
Best and worst calls
Best calls
ADBE SHORT
+18.9%
"There's the under the valley disruption period first. And that's the job losses that you're going to see from the Adobe...
Mar 10
CRM SHORT
+13.8%
"There's the under the valley disruption period first. And that's the job losses that you're going to see from the Adobe...
Mar 10
VALE LONG
+8.1%
"You're much better off in say a lot of global equities are value plays that own assets. Look at your BHPs, your Rio Tin...
Mar 10
Worst calls
BAC SHORT
-10.5%
"The business development companies, the KKKRS, we're talking like 30 40% draw downs... Bank of America down 13% off the...
Mar 10
SMH SHORT
-9.5%
"I think the semis are going to break sometime in the next 6 months because of this whole artificial intelligence capex ...
Mar 10
KKR SHORT
-2.6%
"The business development companies, the KKKRS, we're talking like 30 40% draw downs... Bank of America down 13% off the...
Mar 10
YouTube
Larry McDonald: Private Credit Is This Cycle's Subprime — And Retail Investors Are Holding the Bag
Bullish on natural gas equities like FCG and TER due to "trapped gas" in Canada/Texas and the need to power/relocate data centers. High energy and memory costs are forcing a reevaluation of data center locations. Natural gas in areas with trapped supply is a cheap, strategic solution for this multi-year buildout. Natural gas equities are breaking out versus the S&P, have great valuations, and are poised for a "real great bull market" over the next five years. A severe economic slowdown reduces energy demand broadly.
Founder of the Bear Traps...
YouTube
Larry McDonald: Private Credit Is This Cycle's Subprime — And Retail Investors Are Holding the Bag
States insurers (e.g., Met Life) are the "ultimate bag holders" of private credit, having been hoodwinked by rating agencies and sell-side research. Mentions clients have been shorting them. Insurers reached for yield in opaque private credit, which is now revealing significant credit risk. This mirrors the 2008 dynamic where insurers held toxic rated securities. As private credit marks worsen and gates trap capital, insurers holding these assets will face severe losses and balance sheet stress. A government-backed bailout or facility stabilizes the private credit market before widespread insurer insolvency.
KIE
Julia LaRoche Show
Mar 31, 14:00
Founder of the Bear Traps...
YouTube
Larry McDonald: Private Credit Is This Cycle's Subprime — And Retail Investors Are Holding the Bag
Points to coal names being up 20-30% this year. Notes Dave Einhorn's Greenlight Capital has a top position in coal (e.g., Core Natural Resources). Demand is boosted by data center power needs and Middle East disruptions to LNG supply, making coal a more attractive global power source. The fundamental demand shift, combined with existing supply constraints, is driving outperformance. Accelerated global policy shifts away from fossil fuels, or a rapid resolution in the Middle East restoring LNG flow.
KOL
Julia LaRoche Show
Mar 31, 14:00
Founder of the Bear Traps...
YouTube
Larry McDonald: Private Credit Is This Cycle's Subprime — And Retail Investors Are Holding the Bag
Cites these companies as examples of those that own "lots of assets" and will benefit from the "Great Migration." In a stagflationary world, companies controlling hard assets (industrial, material, energy) historically outperform financial assets. Portfolio construction is shifting from the Mag 7 to these groups. These are direct plays on the multi-year rotation into hard assets, which is still in its early innings. A deep global recession crushes commodity demand despite sticky inflation.
Founder of the Bear Traps...
YouTube
Larry McDonald: Private Credit Is This Cycle's Subprime — And Retail Investors Are Holding the Bag
Made a first-ever Bitcoin purchase, citing a Bitcoin-to-gold ratio in the mid-to-low teens (from high 30s). The ratio suggests relative value. ETFs have democratized ownership, reducing concentration risk. The long-term thesis aligns with currency debasement and hard asset scarcity. Recommends taking advantage of the Bitcoin drawdown as part of the broader portfolio migration into scarce, non-sovereign assets. A major credit event could force liquidations from large holders, crushing the price despite improved ETF liquidity.
BTC
Julia LaRoche Show
Mar 31, 14:00
Founder of the Bear Traps...
YouTube
Larry McDonald: Private Credit Is This Cycle's Subprime — And Retail Investors Are Holding the Bag
Sold gold/silver miner ETFs (GDX, SLV, SIL) in January and is now buying them back after a significant drawdown. The pullback flushed out "tourists" and weak hands. In a new bull market, buying near the 100-day moving average is a sound strategy, especially when ownership is still low historically. Miners have been hit by diesel costs, but underlying metal prices (gold/silver) remain profitable. The secular migration into hard assets supports higher prices. A sharp rise in real interest rates or a deflationary shock could pressure precious metals.
Founder of the Bear Traps...
YouTube
Larry McDonald: Private Credit Is This Cycle's Subprime — And Retail Investors Are Holding the Bag
Recommended a short on financials (XLF) due to exposure to private credit and disruption from AI/software companies, a "double whammy." Private credit is a brewing crisis with bad marks and liquidity gates. Financials hold this risk and are simultaneously facing disruptive tech pressures. Financials are underperforming the S&P by the most since the financial crisis, indicating the thesis is playing out. The sector is currently oversold, suggesting a potential tactical bounce.
XLF
Julia LaRoche Show
Mar 31, 14:00
Founder of the Bear Traps...
The speaker warned to "watch the financials underperforming the S&P by the most probably since 2008," linking this to a spreading credit crisis. Credit risk is migrating from private loans into high-yield bonds (Triple C's), increasing systemic stress and recession risk, which directly harms financial sector performance. AVOID due to an explicit forecast for severe relative underperformance driven by deteriorating credit conditions. A rapid resolution to geopolitical tensions and a subsequent drop in energy prices, alleviating inflation and recession fears before credit stress intensifies.
XLF
CNBC
Mar 20, 15:33
Founder of the Bear Traps...
The speaker stated "the coal names are absolutely exploding higher every day" and "natural gas equities destroyed the Mag-7." A major capital rotation is moving from crowded tech/AI trades into the energy sector. LONG due to explicit commentary on strong, current outperformance and a shift in market focus. A swift geopolitical de-escalation that crushes energy prices and reverses the rotation trade.
XLE
CNBC
Mar 20, 15:33
Founder of the Bear Traps...
The speaker criticized NVIDIA's stock for going "nowhere since July" and accused its CEO of using PR tactics to "pump up investors on artificial intelligence." The AI narrative is overhyped and crowded, with capital now rotating out of such names. AVOID due to explicit bearish sentiment on the stock's performance and the sustainability of the AI investment theme driving it. A new, fundamental AI product catalyst that reignites investor enthusiasm and breaks the current price stagnation.
NVDA
CNBC
Mar 20, 15:33
Founder of the Bear Traps...
"You're much better off in say a lot of global equities are value plays that own assets. Look at your BHPs, your Rio Tintos, your valet." In a stagflationary environment characterized by sticky inflation and higher interest rates, capital will rotate out of overvalued, passive tech indexes. Investors will seek safety in hard asset producers with physical assets in the ground, as these companies inherently hedge against currency debasement and inflation. LONG as a structural inflation hedge and a beneficiary of the value rotation away from passive tech concentration. A severe global recession could destroy industrial demand for base metals, causing commodity prices and miner revenues to collapse despite inflation.
VALE
The David Lin Report
Mar 10, 00:34
Founder of the Bear Traps...