Calls
29
#863
Alpha Score 14.7
Lawrence McDonald
Founder, Bear Traps Report
Win Rate
35.7%
return
-5.2%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Jun 11
$155.65
-12.3%
Gold miners have undergone a hot money flush as weak hands exited on rate hike fears, emerging market central bank gold sales, and higher front-end yields. Agnico Eagle (AEM) is trading at 40% off with 5.9x EV/EBITDA, $6-7B free cash flow, and buying back $2B in stock. Once the Fed is unable to hike and gold rises to $6,500, AEM could double.
Metals & Mining
Long
Jun 11
$413.51
-16.3%
Intuitive Surgical possesses the best proprietary surgical data, positioning it as a future AI profit beast analogous to Tesla's data advantage in autonomous driving. The stock is unloved, underowned, and trading on its 200-week moving average, presenting a screaming buy.
MedTech
Long
Jun 11
$55.23
-14.9%
Oil services are cheap, underowned value names levered to hard assets. Schlumberger (SLB) in particular has an artificial intelligence angle that makes it one of the most exciting trades in the market as AI benefits spread beyond chips.
Oil & Gas
Long
Mar 20
$60.12
-3.7%
The speaker stated "the coal names are absolutely exploding higher every day" and "natural gas equities destroyed the Mag-7." A major capital rotation is moving from crowded tech/AI trades into the energy sector. LONG due to explicit commentary on strong, current outperformance and a shift in market focus. A swift geopolitical de-escalation that crushes energy prices and reverses the rotation trade.
The speaker stated "the coal names are absolutely exploding higher every day" and "natural gas equities destroyed the Mag-7." A major capital rotation is moving from crowded tech/AI trades into the energy sector. LONG due to explicit commentary on strong, current outperformance and a shift in market focus. A swift geopolitical de-escalation that crushes energy prices and reverses the rotation trade.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Jun 11
$17.64
-1.6%
The 2s30s yield curve has flattened aggressively due to market muscle memory expecting Fed hikes, but the Fed cannot hike significantly with $1.1T in annual interest costs. This flattening is a mirage; the curve will steepen substantially over the next year. IVOL ETF is a battered vehicle that captures this steepener.
Volatility
Long
Jun 11
$287.74
+2.1%
Excessive IPO supply and capital raises are forcing investors to sell liquid mega-cap tech stocks to make room, driving a rotation out of the S&P 500 into the Russell 2000. Chart shows a breakout from a down wedge, signaling a multi-year move into small caps and value.
Equity Indexes
Long
Jun 11
$63.32
-1.3%
Trapped natural gas in Canada and Texas will be harnessed to power data centers that face political pushback elsewhere. Tourmaline Oil is in discussions with hyperscalers and benefits from a friendlier Canadian political backdrop and the Strait of Hormuz disruption making North American gas more valuable. Downside 15-20%, upside 200%.
Oil & Gas
Long
Jun 11
$154.37
+4.3%
Healthcare is the most underowned and unloved sector, primed for a rotation from crowded growth and momentum stocks. XLV shares are owned outright with a low-cost collar (buy Aug 145 put, sell Aug 165 call) to define near-term downside while retaining upside participation in a sector breakout.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Mar 31
$67452.50
-4.1%
Made a first-ever Bitcoin purchase, citing a Bitcoin-to-gold ratio in the mid-to-low teens (from high 30s). The ratio suggests relative value. ETFs have democratized ownership, reducing concentration risk. The long-term thesis aligns with currency debasement and hard asset scarcity. Recommends taking advantage of the Bitcoin drawdown as part of the broader portfolio migration into scarce, non-sovereign assets. A major credit event could force liquidations from large holders, crushing the price despite improved ETF liquidity.
Made a first-ever Bitcoin purchase, citing a Bitcoin-to-gold ratio in the mid-to-low teens (from high 30s). The ratio suggests relative value. ETFs have democratized ownership, reducing concentration risk. The long-term thesis aligns with currency debasement and hard asset scarcity. Recommends taking advantage of the Bitcoin drawdown as part of the broader portfolio migration into scarce, non-sovereign assets. A major credit event could force liquidations from large holders, crushing the price despite improved ETF liquidity.
Crypto Assets
Long
Mar 31
$32.61
-13.8%
Bullish on natural gas equities like FCG and TER due to "trapped gas" in Canada/Texas and the need to power/relocate data centers. High energy and memory costs are forcing a reevaluation of data center locations. Natural gas in areas with trapped supply is a cheap, strategic solution for this multi-year buildout. Natural gas equities are breaking out versus the S&P, have great valuations, and are poised for a "real great bull market" over the next five years. A severe economic slowdown reduces energy demand broadly.
Bullish on natural gas equities like FCG and TER due to "trapped gas" in Canada/Texas and the need to power/relocate data centers. High energy and memory costs are forcing a reevaluation of data center locations. Natural gas in areas with trapped supply is a cheap, strategic solution for this multi-year buildout. Natural gas equities are breaking out versus the S&P, have great valuations, and are poised for a "real great bull market" over the next five years. A severe economic slowdown reduces energy demand broadly.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Mar 31
$89.76
-20.5%
Sold gold/silver miner ETFs (GDX, SLV, SIL) in January and is now buying them back after a significant drawdown. The pullback flushed out "tourists" and weak hands. In a new bull market, buying near the 100-day moving average is a sound strategy, especially when ownership is still low historically. Miners have been hit by diesel costs, but underlying metal prices (gold/silver) remain profitable. The secular migration into hard assets supports higher prices. A sharp rise in real interest rates or a deflationary shock could pressure precious metals.
Sold gold/silver miner ETFs (GDX, SLV, SIL) in January and is now buying them back after a significant drawdown. The pullback flushed out "tourists" and weak hands. In a new bull market, buying near the 100-day moving average is a sound strategy, especially when ownership is still low historically. Miners have been hit by diesel costs, but underlying metal prices (gold/silver) remain profitable. The secular migration into hard assets supports higher prices. A sharp rise in real interest rates or a deflationary shock could pressure precious metals.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Mar 31
$66.66
-24.1%
Sold gold/silver miner ETFs (GDX, SLV, SIL) in January and is now buying them back after a significant drawdown. The pullback flushed out "tourists" and weak hands. In a new bull market, buying near the 100-day moving average is a sound strategy, especially when ownership is still low historically. Miners have been hit by diesel costs, but underlying metal prices (gold/silver) remain profitable. The secular migration into hard assets supports higher prices. A sharp rise in real interest rates or a deflationary shock could pressure precious metals.
Sold gold/silver miner ETFs (GDX, SLV, SIL) in January and is now buying them back after a significant drawdown. The pullback flushed out "tourists" and weak hands. In a new bull market, buying near the 100-day moving average is a sound strategy, especially when ownership is still low historically. Miners have been hit by diesel costs, but underlying metal prices (gold/silver) remain profitable. The secular migration into hard assets supports higher prices. A sharp rise in real interest rates or a deflationary shock could pressure precious metals.
Commodities
Long
Jul 14
$49.66
-11.4%
Alcoa (AA) is a direct play on the $2 trillion rebuild of the aging U.S. power grid, which is 30-50 years old in many places. The grid rebuild is a multi-year theme tied to data center expansion and infrastructure spending.
Metals & Mining
Long
Jul 14
$21.47
+5.2%
Healthcare is set to dramatically outperform. The sector has fallen from 16-17% of the S&P 500 to just 8%, and a rotation is underway as midterm election dynamics favor Democrats and fiscal hawks. The firm has gone long healthcare, highlighting Intuitive Surgical and Baxter.
MedTech
Long
Jul 14
$182.06
+3.1%
Energy stocks are screaming buys relative to the S&P 500, with extremely attractive free cash flow yields and heavy stock buybacks. Names mentioned: Occidental Petroleum (below Buffett's buy price), Chevron, Schlumberger (new AI play for the ocean floor), and the XLE ETF.
Oil & Gas
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Lawrence McDonald has 29 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 29 tickers since January 2026. Win rate 36% across 28 evaluated calls, average return -5.2%. Ranked #863 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: SLB, AEM, XLE.
