KOL VanEck Coal ETF : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

War boosts energy and critical minerals prices.

Points to coal names being up 20-30% this year. Notes Dave Einhorn's Greenlight Capital has a top position in coal (e.g., Core Natural Resources). Demand is boosted by data center power needs and Middle East disruptions to LNG supply, making coal a more attractive global power source. The fundamental demand shift, combined with existing supply constraints, is driving outperformance. Accelerated global policy shifts away from fossil fuels, or a rapid resolution in the Middle East restoring LNG flow.

Long coal stocks/ETF (KOL) as a crisis in Gulf LNG supply is expected to increase demand and prices for coal.

Ziemba states, "in the short-term, we will see that shift" to less clean energy like coal, especially in Asia and Europe, and expects emissions standards may be relaxed. High oil and gas prices, supply disruptions, and the need for readily available local energy sources will incentivize a shift back to coal. Increased demand for coal as a substitute fuel makes the asset attractive. A rapid de-escalation collapses energy prices, or environmental policy remains rigid despite the crisis.

Coal is positioned to benefit from multiple structural tailwinds, including the AI capex power boom and geopolitical energy shortages.

China is massively expanding its coal power capacity to ensure cheap and reliable electricity, suggesting a structural, long-term demand driver for coal.

The administration is reversing the EPA "endangerment finding" on CO2 emissions. This regulatory rollback allows coal plants to remain open to provide baseload power for the AI arms race. "Energy Addition, not Subtraction." LONG Coal / Utilities with coal assets. Legal challenges from environmental groups delaying the regulatory rollback.