Name: MacroVoices #541 Dr. Anas Alhajji: Bab el-Mandeb: The Next Oil Chokepoint Nobody's Watching
Uploaded: 2026-07-16T20:40:46+00:00
Duration: 6981 s

Speakers

Anas Alhajji — Managing Partner, Energy Outlook Advisors

Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices

Silvan

Summary

Dr. Anas Alhajji argues the US engineered the Strait of Hormuz closure as part of an energy and AI dominance strategy toward China, but the plan backfired when hardline IRGC factions resisted reopening. He analyzes oil markets, demand destruction, and outlines investment winners including US LNG and coal. The MacroVoices trading desk translates the LNG thesis into a Cheniere Energy trade and highlights a coffee positioning opportunity.

Hormuz closure seen as a US strategic move to assert energy dominance, not solely an Iran conflict.
Oil price spikes and demand destruction already occurred, leaving crude balanced and limiting further upside.
Real market stress shifted to refined products (diesel, gasoline) due to refining capacity losses and panic restrictions.
Anas identifies US LNG and coal as top post-crisis beneficiaries from national security-driven energy policies.
Patrick Ceresna executes the LNG theme via a Cheniere Energy (LNG) long with protective put, citing a technical breakout.
Silvan presents a bullish coffee thesis based on positioning washout, weather supply shocks, and low inventories.
Equities, dollar, gold, and crude oil technicals are reviewed, with gold showing asymmetry but no trend change yet.

Ideas

Anas Alhajji Managing Partner, Energy Outlook Advisors 95:55

US LNG wins from energy security and AI.

Natural gas and LNG are the biggest winners from the Hormuz crisis because countries will prioritize energy security under national security arguments, linking domestic energy to policy. Meanwhile, AI and data center power demand will massively boost electricity needs, creating a structural demand surge for US LNG exports and infrastructure. US LNG names are especially attractive.

Anas Alhajji Managing Partner, Energy Outlook Advisors 96:38

Coal benefits from post-crisis energy security push.

Coal becomes very attractive post-Hormuz because it is cheap and is a domestic energy source in most major consuming countries affected by the crisis. As governments link energy sources to national security, coal companies will benefit significantly from policy support and renewed demand, reversing their prior decline.

Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 100:37

Buy Cheniere Energy on LNG infrastructure breakout.

The structural case for US LNG infrastructure is expressed via Cheniere Energy (LNG). Technically, the stock has corrected 25% from March highs, reclaimed the 50-day moving average, and broken a descending trendline. The entry is shares with a short-term protective put at 240 strike to limit downside while the breakout confirms.

Silvan 111:05

Coffee positioning points to a durable bull market.

Coffee has transitioned from a brutal bear market to a recovery driven by severe weather, harvest delays, thin global inventories, and El Niño risks. Positioning data shows speculators covering shorts and commercials rebuilding hedges, with large specs still far from historical peak net long. If price makes new highs with expanding open interest and large spec buying, coffee may enter a durable bull market.

MacroVoices #541 Dr. Anas Alhajji: Bab el-Mandeb: The Next Oil Chokepoint Nobody's Watching

Summary

Ideas

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