Javier Blas

Global oil inventories are being drawn down rapidly, and once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, everyone will need to buy extra oil to replenish commercial and strategic reserves, creating sustained demand that supports higher crude prices. Production from Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar has already collapsed due to storage constraints, tightening supply further.

We have swarm of drones heading to Saudi oil fields. It doesn't take a lot to create an explosion and to lose that significant chunk of infrastructure. Middle Eastern oil infrastructure is under direct kinetic threat, putting massive volumes of global supply at risk of permanent destruction. Western oil majors with heavy domestic (Permian) and non-Middle Eastern production will capture massive margin expansion from spiking global crude prices, while remaining insulated from the physical geopolitical risks threatening assets in the Persian Gulf. LONG US-based oil majors to benefit from higher commodity prices and a geopolitical flight to safety in energy production. A sudden diplomatic resolution reopens the Strait of Hormuz, flooding the market with the trapped 20 million barrels a day and compressing energy equity margins.

Buy Brent crude exposure as Iran geopolitical risk provides upward pressure toward $80+, but structural differences from 1970s/1990/2022 shock episodes cap the upside, making this a bounded bullish setup rather than a tail-risk event.