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MacroVoices #541 Dr. Anas Alhajji: Bab el-Mandeb: The Next Oil Chokepoint Nobody's Watching

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 16, 2026 at 19:44  |  1:56:21  |  Macro Voices
Speakers
Anas Alhajji — Managing Partner, Energy Outlook Advisors
Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Missile — Co-host, MacroVoices Trading Desk

Summary

Dr. Anas Alhajji explains why the US intentionally closed the Strait of Hormuz to demonstrate energy and AI dominance over China, and how IRGC hardliners now prevent its reopening. He warns that Bab el-Mandeb is a fresh chokepoint that could spike oil above $100. Investment implications favor US LNG and coal. Patrick Ceresna adds a technical trade on Cheniere Energy (LNG), and the trading desk highlights coffee, crude, gold, dollar, and S&P 500 setups.

  • Iran conflict: US closed Hormuz to signal energy dominance; reopening blocked by IRGC extremists.
  • Bab el-Mandeb: Houthi attacks could close the Red Sea entrance, threatening 4+ mb/d of Saudi crude and spiking oil.
  • Energy winners: US LNG and coal benefit from national security framing and AI/data center power demand.
  • Trade of the week: Long Cheniere Energy (LNG) on breakout with a protective $240 put.
  • Coffee: Short-covering rally may become a durable bull market on supply risks and uncrowded positioning.
  • Markets: S&P 500 watch 7,400 for CTA selling; dollar constructive above 101.50; gold distribution may give way to rally; crude eyes $85–90.
Ideas
Anas Alhajji Managing Partner, Energy Outlook Advisors 7:08
Bab el-Mandeb risk could spike oil.
Bab el-Mandeb is the next major chokepoint; Houthi attacks could cancel insurance and block 4+ mb/d of Saudi crude, pushing oil above $100. Although the closure may be short-lived, the risk is elevated and insurance costs will stay high.
WTI MED
Anas Alhajji Managing Partner, Energy Outlook Advisors 95:52
US LNG wins from energy security, AI.
The Hermuz crisis has made energy security a national priority, and combined with AI/data center power demand and Qatar's LNG expansion disruption, natural gas and LNG are the biggest winners. Investing in US LNG companies is a major long-term opportunity.
UNL HIGH
Anas Alhajji Managing Partner, Energy Outlook Advisors 96:38
Coal stocks benefit from national security priority.
Coal becomes attractive as a cheap, domestic energy source for many countries affected by Hormuz, now linked to national security; coal companies will perform extremely well as governments prioritize secure energy.
KOL MED
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 100:39
Buy Cheniere Energy on technical breakout.
Cheniere Energy (LNG) breaks out above its 50-day moving average and descending trendline, offering a clean expression of the US LNG energy security and AI power demand thesis. A protective put at $240 hedges early breakout risk.
LNG HIGH
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 104:16
S&P 500: watch for breakdown below 7,400.
The S&P 500 is in an uptrend but lacking momentum. A technical level to watch is just below 7,400, where CTA sell triggers are clustered; a break below could add systematic selling and threaten the bull trend.
SPY MED
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 106:19
Dollar bullish if above 101.50.
The US Dollar Index is consolidating above a 15-month breakout and testing the 50-day moving average. A bullish advance reclaiming 101.50 could reopen an upside move targeting 103.
DXY MED
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 108:45
Gold: wait for distribution to end.
Gold remains in a distributive downtrend, with potential for a washout to $3,800 or $3,600. However, asymmetry is shifting toward bulls, and the summer will be about recognizing when the technical backdrop turns constructive for a new rally.
GLD LOW
Missile Co-host, MacroVoices Trading Desk 111:04
Coffee poised for durable bull move.
Coffee futures are a watch: severe weather, harvest delays, thin inventories, and uncrowded positioning create a possible bullish setup, but the call is conditional and not an explicit buy/own/hold/current-position long.
Coffee futures MED
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This Macro Voices video, published July 16, 2026, features Anas Alhajji, Patrick Ceresna, Missile discussing WTI, UNL, KOL, LNG, SPY, DXY, GLD, Coffee futures. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Anas Alhajji, Patrick Ceresna, Missile  · Tickers: WTI, UNL, KOL, LNG, SPY, DXY, GLD, Coffee futures