BurggrabenH 5.0 154 ideas
After 1 day
46%winrate
-0.7% avg
45W / 53L · 98/142 ideas
After 1 week
58%winrate
+1.6% avg
57W / 42L · 99/143 ideas
After 1 month
69%winrate
+3.6% avg
55W / 25L · 80/143 ideas
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
By sector
ETF
93 ideas
+2.9%
Commodity
38 ideas
+4.9%
Stock
15 ideas
+0.6%
sector
5 ideas
index
1 ideas
currency
1 ideas
private
1 ideas
Top tickers (by frequency)
USO
48 ideas
70% W
+7.2%
WTI
23 ideas
68% W
+3.2%
SPY
8 ideas
100% W
+2.5%
GOLD
6 ideas
100% W
+8.2%
SILVER
5 ideas
67% W
+17.2%
Best and worst calls
Best calls
USO LONG
+52.9%
The complete halt of crude tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint, signals an immedia...
Mar 03
SILVER LONG
+50.5%
1. THE FACT: Silver in Shanghai is at USD 84 per ounce.
2. THE BRIDGE: This is a specific, high price point for silver, ...
Dec 28
WTI LONG
+44.3%
If we get a bifurcated transit at Hormuz - Chinese vs OECD destinations - we likely enter a worst case scenario for oil ...
Mar 05
Worst calls
USO SHORT
-58.4%
The author is skeptical of a sustained oil price rally, arguing that any geopolitical risk premium will fade due to a so...
Feb 27
KOLD LONG
-55.0%
1. THE FACT: European household gas demand tracks temperature exponentially, especially in sub-zero territory. January i...
Jan 07
WTI SHORT
-44.3%
A LOT of damage has already been done to oil markets, and I’m afraid it gets worse before it gets better.
Ground zero r...
Mar 05
Position for a medium-term rise in oil prices (USO) as the supply impact from Middle East disruptions works through the global refined products market, with the current skepticism creating an entry opportunity.
USO
MED
Apr 14, 18:06
Short oil (USO) because the return of ballast tankers to the Persian Gulf indicates fleet managers are confident in restoring supply flows, reducing the risk premium from regional conflict.
USO
MED
Apr 11, 22:25
The author asserts a near-certain, forward-looking global fuel supply crisis, specifically in jet fuel, which implies higher refined product and crude oil prices due to unstoppable physical shortages.
USO
HIGH
Apr 10, 11:48
The market is mispricing the recent drop in oil because the Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed, meaning supply disruptions will persist and conditions will likely worsen before resolving.
USO
HIGH
Apr 07, 23:28
Long oil because geopolitical stalemate between Saudi Arabia/UAE and Iran is constraining supply by 5 million barrels per day, eroding spare capacity and supporting higher prices.
USO
HIGH
Apr 06, 22:59
Record Saudi Official Selling Prices are being used to incentivize a longer VLCC routing (around Africa) instead of via Suez, which physically constrains export volumes and is a bullish logistical signal for crude oil.
USO
HIGH
Apr 06, 22:22
Broad equity markets are ignoring an escalating petroleum supply crisis, setting up for a sudden drop ("air pocket") that warrants a defensive or short position.
SPY
HIGH
Apr 06, 00:47
The author argues that recent positive headlines regarding Iraq and Pakistan are irrelevant distractions ("fog of war"), and a sustained bullish move for oil/tanker assets requires a risk assessment shift by major commercial players, which has not yet occurred.
USO
HIGH
Apr 04, 22:50
Short the airline sector due to expected severe operational disruption and cost inflation from widespread jet fuel shortages caused by the Iran War.
JETS
HIGH
Apr 04, 21:43
Expect jet fuel shortages due to the Iran War to cause significant operational disruptions and financial stress for airlines.
JETS
HIGH
Apr 04, 21:25
The author advocates a defensive posture with cash initially, but explicitly identifies gold miners (GDX) as a primary long opportunity once the market adjusts to the unfolding crisis.
GDX
MED
Apr 03, 19:57
Persistent geopolitical maritime disruptions will constrain oil supply flows for years, requiring new infrastructure and supporting higher long-term oil prices.
USO
MED
Apr 03, 18:34
Short oil (USO) because the TACO agreement will not lead to a swift, full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, instead entrenching disruption and leading to only a messy, partial resumption of flows.
USO
MED
Apr 01, 17:28
The author asserts nuclear energy will significantly benefit from an unspecified catalyst, implying a long position in nuclear-related assets.
URA
MED
Mar 30, 23:12
The world faces a structural crude and products shortage driven by supply constraints and ineffective SPR releases, which will pressure oil prices higher.
USO
HIGH
Mar 30, 09:39