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20:48
Aug 20
Aug 20
Macro Voices
2d
BTC
TLT
SPY 1ST
IBIT
USD/JPY
▾
HIGH
Fiscal dominance and money printing boost assets.
Fourth-turning dynamics, massive structural deficits, and a geopolitically driven supply-demand imbalance in the Treasury market will force the government to implement yield curve control and print money, debasing the dollar and driving up scarce assets like gold, Bitcoin, and stocks.
BTC LONG
SPY LONG
GLD LONG
Deficits and capital competition drive yields higher.
The supply of global savings is deteriorating while the US runs massive structural deficits and competes with AI capex for capital, meaning Treasury yields must rise significantly (targeting 5.75-6% on the 10-year and 6.5% on the 30-year) before the Fed implements full yield curve control.
TLT SHORT
Use deep ITM calls for Bitcoin exposure.
Fiscal dominance and financial repression benefit scarce assets like Bitcoin; using deep in-the-money call options (like the Jan 2027 $32 call on IBIT) offers a capital-efficient way to get high delta exposure with defined risk and downside convexity.
IBIT LONG
Treasury intervention has neutralized the dollar rally.
Treasury Secretary Bessent's intervention in the bond market has triggered US dollar selling and neutralized the prior dollar bull market, making USD/JPY a key pair to watch for a meaningful new trend of yen strength.
USD/JPY SHORT
USD SHORT
Nvidia earnings will dictate semiconductor sector direction.
The semiconductor sector has been lagging the broader market, and Nvidia's upcoming earnings will be the critical catalyst to determine if the sector can catch up and provide a bullish tailwind or if it will act as a wet blanket on the market.
NVDA WATCH
SMH WATCH
Ethan demand and Indian imports boost sugar.
Higher energy prices are incentivizing Brazilian mills to produce ethanol instead of sugar, while India may become a net importer, creating a double whammy for the sugar supply-demand curve that could drive prices significantly higher as large speculators begin to unwind bearish bets.
CANE LONG
Uranium stocks show signs of new accumulation.
The mining space is seeing a substantial pivot in flows, with uranium names and the URA ETF starting to participate; quick dips are being bought, indicating signs of new accumulation after a challenging three-month correction.
URA LONG
Tight supply and geopolitics support higher oil.
Deteriorating geopolitical circumstances and an incredibly tight global marketplace suggest that crude oil can maintain its elevated levels and potentially rally into the mid-90s, despite a lack of aggressive chasing by large funds.
WTI LONG
HIGH
20:13
Aug 20
Aug 20
Macro Voices
2d
IBIT
US30Y
US10Y
TLT
QQQ
▾
HIGH
Buy IBIT calls for efficient Bitcoin exposure.
Fiscal dominance and financial repression benefit scarce assets like Bitcoin. Using a deep-in-the-money Jan 2027 $32 call option on IBIT provides a capital-efficient, defined-risk way to get high-delta Bitcoin exposure with positive convexity.
IBIT LONG
BTC LONG
Treasury debt buying forces bond short covering.
Big funds are heavily positioned short on 10-year and 30-year bonds at a multi-year extreme. The US Treasury's decision to double its debt buying program will force these short sellers to buy back their positions, strengthening the bond price rebound.
US30Y LONG
US10Y LONG
Treasury intervention aims to cap bond yields.
The Treasury is effectively executing an operation twist by buying longer-dated bonds and issuing short-term bonds to manage excess supply and cap yields. Watching to see if this intervention successfully stabilizes the 30-year Treasury yield around 5.30%.
TLT WATCH
Big money hedges against the NASDAQ rally.
Large trend-following funds are holding their lowest positioning score in five years on the NASDAQ, indicating they do not fully trust the ongoing rally and are hedging their exposure.
QQQ WATCH
Dollar bull market neutralized; watching yen strength.
Treasury interventions have triggered US dollar selling that broke key support lines and neutralized the prior bull market. Watching USD/JPY closely to see if a meaningful new trend of dollar weakness and yen strength resumes.
USD/JPY SHORT
Buy the dip on S&P 500 pullbacks.
The S&P 500 is taking a breather after an August burst higher, but remains in a bullish trend with support around 7600. Giving bulls the benefit of the doubt that buy-on-dip traders will maintain the upper trend unless it breaks below 7500.
SPY LONG
Semiconductor direction hinges on upcoming Nvidia earnings.
Semiconductors have lagged since Q2 and failed to participate in the recent upside. The sector's direction now hinges entirely on Nvidia's upcoming earnings, which will determine if semis can catch up or if they will act as a wet blanket on the broader market.
NVDA WATCH
SMH WATCH
Buy gold dips targeting return to highs.
Gold has made a legitimate attempt to break out of a six-month correction, supported by bullish tailwinds from a breaking US dollar and interest rate interventions. Buying dips on $150 retracements to target a return to April highs near 4800.
GLD LONG
Intervention forces unwinding of long dollar bets.
Large speculators are crowded into long dollar positions across major cross currencies. Recent US government interventions in the yen and bond markets mean big money will likely unwind these longs, creating room for further dollar weakness.
USD SHORT
Ethanol demand and Indian imports squeeze sugar.
Higher energy prices are incentivizing Brazilian mills to divert sugarcane to ethanol, while India may become a net importer. This double whammy to supply and demand, combined with large speculators just starting to turn bullish, could drive sugar prices much higher.
CANE LONG
Uranium stocks show signs of new accumulation.
The mining space is seeing a pivot in flows, with uranium and the URA ETF starting to participate and showing signs of new accumulation after a challenging three-month correction.
URA LONG
Tight supply and geopolitics support higher oil.
Crude oil has recovered without large funds aggressively chasing it, leaving speculative positioning at the 19th percentile. This supports a rangebound story but also leaves plenty of sidelined capital to fuel a breakout if prices climb higher.
WTI LONG
HIGH
18:52
Aug 20
Aug 20
Macro Voices
2d
STOCKS
TLT
BTC
10-Year US Treasury
GLD
▾
HIGH
Money printing will boost scarce assets.
The US is in a 'fourth turning' characterized by massive debt and fiscal dominance. To manage this debt disease, policymakers will resort to booming the economy and printing money, leading to substantial dollar debasement against scarce assets like gold, Bitcoin, and stocks.
STOCKS LONG
BTC LONG
GLD LONG
Debt supply and capital competition raise yields.
A geopolitically driven supply-demand imbalance in the Treasury market, massive AI capex competing for capital, and a structural decline in global savings will force long-term yields significantly higher, with fair value for the 10-year around 5.75% and the 30-year near 6.50%.
TLT SHORT
10-Year US Treasury SHORT
Deep ITM calls offer efficient Bitcoin exposure.
Fiscal dominance and financial repression benefit scarce assets like Bitcoin. Buying deep in-the-money call options (e.g., Jan 2027 $32 calls) on IBIT provides a capital-efficient, high-delta alternative to owning the stock, with defined risk and positive convexity.
IBIT LONG
Nvidia earnings dictate the semiconductor sector's direction.
The semiconductor sector has lagged the broader market recently. Nvidia's upcoming earnings will be the critical catalyst to determine if the sector can catch up and provide a bullish tailwind for the market, or if it will act as a wet blanket.
SMH WATCH
NVDA WATCH
Treasury intervention neutralized the dollar's bullish trend.
The Treasury's intervention to manage long bond yields has triggered US dollar selling and neutralized the prior dollar bull market. The key pair to watch is USD/JPY to see if a new trend of dollar weakness and yen strength emerges following the initial intervention.
USD/JPY WATCH
USD WATCH
The broader bullish trend remains intact.
Despite a recent breather, the S&P 500 has not suffered significant technical damage. Previous highs and moving averages around 7600 should act as strong support, and buy-the-dip traders are expected to maintain the broader bullish trend.
SPY LONG
Uranium stocks show new accumulation after correction.
There has been a substantial pivot in flows toward the mining space, and uranium names are starting to participate. After a challenging 3-month correction, the sector is showing signs of new accumulation and a potential new bull trend.
URA LONG
Ethanol demand and Indian imports squeeze sugar.
Higher energy prices are incentivizing Brazilian mills to divert sugarcane toward ethanol production instead of sugar. Combined with India potentially becoming a net importer, this creates a significant supply-demand imbalance that could drive sugar prices much higher, especially as large speculators are just starting to turn bullish.
CANE LONG
Tight supply and geopolitical risks support oil.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly the diminished probability of the Strait of Hormuz opening, have created an incredibly tight global market. Despite a lack of aggressive long positioning by large funds, oil has the potential to push into the mid-$90s.
WTI LONG
HIGH
20:40
Aug 13
Aug 13
Macro Voices
9d
SPY
SHY FLIP
IEF
SILVER
WTI
▾
HIGH
Liquidity downswing; reduce equity beta risk.
The advanced-economy global liquidity cycle peaked at the end of 2025 and its growth rate is now rolling over because strong real economies are draining liquidity from financial markets. This is the phase where central-bank tightening is still ahead, risk assets are vulnerable, and investors should scale back equity beta and move more defensively; he cites the 2021-2022 analog when the S&P 500 dropped 25%.
SPY AVOID
Rates must rise; short Treasury notes.
Central banks do not control interest rates; markets do. Rising bond yields are a global phenomenon driven by strong nominal GDP, and the 2-year Treasury note has broken above SOFR and predicts higher policy rates. He expects the Fed to hike, not cut, and sees the 10-year Treasury yield potentially testing 6%.
SHY SHORT
IEF SHORT
Precious metals turn; gold and silver rally.
Gold's correction is over because China is turning on the PBOC liquidity taps again. China needs to devalue its debt domestically, and that internal yuan devaluation is expressed through a much higher gold price. The yuan gold price bottomed at its 27,000 trend line, Shanghai is now the marginal gold pricer, and silver is starting to outperform as high-beta confirmation.
SILVER LONG
GLD LONG
Gold-oil ratio implies much higher oil.
The gold-oil ratio is strongly mean-reverting and has spiked again, implying oil must catch up. If gold is anchored near $4,000 and the long-run gold-oil ratio is 20-30x, oil could reach $135-$200. Energy is late in the commodity cycle, and he is very invested in energy stocks and expects oil prices to rise significantly.
WTI LONG
XLE LONG
Crypto under cloud as Fed liquidity fades.
Crypto is much more attuned to global and Fed liquidity than to PBOC liquidity. With global liquidity fading and the Federal Reserve under pressure to tighten, crypto is under a cloud and gold has been outperforming; he expects that relative dynamic to continue over the near term.
BTC AVOID
Commodities up on strong economy and China.
Strong western growth and a likely further Chinese stimulus are fueling commodity demand. The liquidity-cycle phase between the peak in liquidity and the peak in the real economy historically supports commodity markets, with industrial metals already outperforming gold and more room to go.
DBC LONG
DBB LONG
Yen selloff persists until BOJ tightens.
Japan is reluctant to raise short-term rates even though the 10-year JGB is catching up to nominal GDP growth above 4%. That short-end funding and monetization causes a yen sell-off, and the sell-off is likely to continue until Japanese authorities genuinely tighten monetary conditions.
FXY SHORT
Wheat short-covering risk on Russian supply.
Large speculators built fresh wheat shorts just before the latest Black Sea escalation. Russia controls 22% of global wheat exports, and attacks on Russian grain infrastructure raise physical supply risk; if the situation worsens, those new shorts may be forced to cover, supporting wheat prices.
WEAT WATCH
Front-end funding may weaken dollar.
If the US Treasury is pushed to fund more at the front end and the bill share of federal debt approaches 30%, that would be significant and very bad for the US dollar, while also causing gold to shoot up. This is a conditional funding-policy setup to monitor.
USD WATCH
Uranium producers may be turning higher.
Uranium futures had been dead for three months, flatlining around $85-$87, but are now upticking. URA, the uranium producers basket, rallied about 25% trough to peak in two weeks and reclaimed its 50-day moving average, potentially marking the first turn toward a new accumulation cycle.
URA WATCH
USD/JPY at inflection after intervention.
The US dollar is structurally in a bull trend but has been mean reverting after large yen intervention. USD/JPY fell from 164 to 155 and has now retraced about 50%, creating an inflection point: if the dollar continues to weaken, the yen should rally; if not, the dip is bought.
USD/JPY WATCH
HIGH
20:30
Aug 13
Aug 13
Macro Voices
9d
GLD
USD/JPY
EUR/USD
SPY FLIP
QQQ
▾
HIGH
Bullish gold via GLD bull call spread.
Patrick sees Michael Howell's structurally bullish gold view as setting up a tactical inflection and constructs a defined-risk GLD bull call spread because gold has a steep right tail skew that makes far upside calls expensive; by buying the October 16, 2026 $410 GLD call and selling the $450 call he risks about $10 to make about $30 if GLD reaches the April high near $450 within about two months.
GLD LONG
Dollar at key inflection versus yen/euro.
Patrick says the US dollar has mean-reverted from its prior uptrend after the big yen intervention, and USD/JPY has retraced about 50% of the intervention drop; the next week or two should reveal whether the dollar is meaningfully reversing lower, which would correspond to renewed yen strength and EUR/USD upside, or whether this is just a buy-the-dip in the dollar.
USD/JPY WATCH
EUR/USD WATCH
S&P 500 bull trend likely continues.
Mile argues the S&P 500's latest breakout to all-time highs is being accepted rather than mean-reverting; the market is bouncing along 52-week highs with bulls in control, and a short-term catalyst breaking the one-week range could quickly send the index toward 8,000, while a 200-point dip would likely be bought.
SPY LONG
Watch Nasdaq/semis for rally participation.
Patrick notes Nasdaq positioning is extremely light/net short while S&P and Dow positioning are stretched, and suspects the Nasdaq shorts may be hedges against crowded semiconductor and MAG 7 longs; with semiconductors notably absent from the rally, S&P 8,000 likely requires MAG 7 participation, making it important to watch whether tech and semis get bought on dips.
QQQ WATCH
SMH WATCH
Oil has room to stay elevated.
Mile sees crude oil quietly consolidating near its 50-day moving average but the Middle East situation remains fragile and oil markets stressed; fair value has room to stay elevated, with a reasonable chance to hold above $80 and headline risk that sends it back toward $90, while a return to the June low near $65 looks unlikely.
WTI LONG
Silver extremely underowned, first inning.
Mile points out gold positioning moved only to neutral while silver remains extremely underowned, with large speculator positioning near the zero percentile over the past 12 months; if precious metals are turning higher, this is still the first inning, making silver a notable laggard with catch-up potential.
SILVER LONG
Uranium miners may be turning higher.
Patrick notes uranium had been dead for three to four months with futures flatlining between $85 and $87, but it is now upticking and uranium mining stocks via URA have rallied nearly 25% trough-to-peak over two weeks and reclaimed the 50-day moving average; one week does not confirm a new trend, but this is the first positive price action since early Q2 and a potential turn toward a new accumulation cycle.
URA WATCH
Front/back Treasury positioning extremely divergent.
Patrick explains the Treasury curve shows opposite positioning stories: 2-year positioning is at the 100th percentile while 10-year positioning is at the zero percentile, driven by short covering at the front as traders price the Fed closer to the end of its hawkish cycle, while the long bond remains in a vicious downtrend with shorts piling in and 30-year yields near 5.25%; this sets up a potential bull steepening.
SHY WATCH
IEF WATCH
TLT WATCH
Wheat short-covering risk on Black Sea escalation.
Mile is watching wheat because large speculators went from flat to roughly 15,000 contracts net short in one week with about 11,000 fresh new shorts, and this bearish positioning was established before the latest Black Sea escalation; with attacks on Russian grain infrastructure and Russia controlling 22% of global wheat exports, further supply disruption could force those new shorts to buy back, especially after wheat held its 50-day moving average and fib zone.
WEAT WATCH
Soybeans and corn may rally too.
Patrick adds that the same bullish chart pattern seen in wheat is also present in soybeans and corn, suggesting the whole agricultural complex is setting up for potential food shortage concerns and bullish price action, which he wants to keep watching.
SOYB WATCH
CORN WATCH
HIGH
17:05
Aug 13
Aug 13
Macro Voices
9d
GLD
BTC
WTI
XLE
FXY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Chinese liquidity expansion drives gold prices higher.
China's PBOC is expanding liquidity to devalue domestic debt, which directly drives gold higher, while Western debt monetization provides additional long-term tailwinds for the precious metal.
GLD LONG
Fading global liquidity pressures crypto asset prices.
Cryptocurrencies are highly sensitive to global and Federal Reserve liquidity, which is currently fading, putting the asset class under a cloud compared to gold.
BTC AVOID
Mean-reverting gold-oil ratio implies higher oil.
Oil prices are set to rise significantly as the gold-to-oil ratio mean-reverts; if gold remains elevated, historical ratios imply oil could reach $135 to $200 per barrel.
WTI LONG
XLE LONG
Reluctance to raise rates weakens the yen.
The Bank of Japan's reluctance to raise short-term rates while long-end yields rise leads to effective debt monetization, which will cause the yen to continue selling off.
FXY SHORT
Underowned silver has significant room to run.
Silver remains heavily underowned by large speculators, indicating that the precious metals rally is still in its early stages with significant room to run.
SILVER LONG
Uranium stocks may begin new accumulation cycle.
Uranium mining stocks have come to life, rallying 25% and reclaiming their 50-day moving average, potentially signaling a new accumulation cycle.
URRA WATCH
URA WATCH
Supply risks could trigger agricultural short squeezes.
Speculators piled into short positions just before attacks on Russian grain infrastructure escalated supply risks, setting up a potential short-squeeze and bullish price action across the agricultural space.
CORN LONG
SOYB LONG
WEAT LONG
Falling liquidity favors defensive equity market positioning.
As the global liquidity cycle falls and the real economy peaks, financial assets face headwinds, making defensive stocks likely to outperform the broader equity market.
XLP LONG
Strong nominal GDP drives bond yields higher.
Strong US nominal GDP growth of 6% to 8%, driven by fiscal spending, AI, and deglobalization, will pull long-term bond yields higher, potentially testing 6%.
IEF SHORT
Strong economic growth boosts global commodity demand.
The real economy remains strong and is draining liquidity from financial markets, which combined with Chinese stimulus will continue to boost global commodity demand.
DBB LONG
DBC LONG
Bullish market structure points to higher equities.
The market structure is surprisingly bullish with price acceptance at all-time highs, making the bull trend the path of least resistance toward 8000.
SPY LONG
HIGH
16:29
Aug 06
Aug 06
Macro Voices
16d
BOTZ
FXY
GLD
UUP
▾
HIGH
Next AI wave targets robotics/automation.
Robotics and automation could be the next destination of the AI rolling bubble after chips and infrastructure have captured most capital; the robotics ETF BOTZ has undergone a 3-month 20% correction, providing an asymmetric entry with protective puts to manage early entry risk.
BOTZ LONG
Yen short-squeeze potential after intervention.
Short yen positioning hit record extremes ahead of coordinated US-Japan intervention; if the yen holds recent gains, short sellers may be forced to cover, triggering stops and systematic trend reversals that could fuel more yen buying, though follow-through is data-dependent.
FXY WATCH
Gold breakout signals hard asset rotation.
Gold broke out decisively from a multi-month range, reclaiming 50-day moving average and descending trendline, with simultaneous strength across silver, platinum, copper, mining stocks, and uranium, signaling a broad intermarket rotation into hard assets; next upside obstacle near 4550.
GLD LONG
Dollar at critical support, breakdown possible.
The US Dollar Index reversed sharply and is testing critical support at 99.12; a clean break below that level would damage the technical structure, pull the dollar back into its 15-month range and open the door for a much deeper correction, while speculative longs are extremely crowded.
UUP WATCH
HIGH
16:16
Aug 06
Aug 06
Macro Voices
16d
GLD
BOTZ
FXY
▾
HIGH
Gold breakout, key resistance at 4550
Gold delivered a decisive 4% breakout from its multi-month range, reclaiming its 50-day moving average and descending trendline. The breakout is reinforced by simultaneous strength across silver, platinum, copper, mining stocks, and uranium equities, suggesting a broad intermarket rotation into hard assets rather than an isolated short squeeze. The first real obstacle is the 4550 Fibonacci resistance zone; a decisive break above that level would confirm genuine bullish follow-through and strengthen the case that a sustainable new trend has begun.
GLD WATCH
Buy BOTZ with protective put for asymmetry
The next AI trade may not be in chip and infrastructure names but in robotics and automation, which have undergone a substantial reset. The Global X Robotics & AI ETF (BOTZ) corrected 20% over 3 months back near year lows, clearing prior excess and creating interesting asymmetry. The trade establishes early exposure before the next momentum wave by buying shares around 37.50, paired with an August 37 protective put (costing ~0.60) as short-term insurance while the trade proves itself. If the ETF turns higher, upside is retained; if it breaks below 37, the put offsets losses and provides an exit strategy. The goal is to capture the next rolling bubble while limiting damage if entry is premature.
BOTZ LONG
Yen intervention could spark short-covering rally
Going into the coordinated US-Japan intervention, the short yen trade was extremely one-sided, with large speculator positioning at the zero percentile on both one-year and three-year scores, record gross shorts of 264,000 contracts, and gross longs at a one-year low. Traders were still adding shorts and cutting longs right before the intervention. The intervention initially drove USD/JPY from 163 to 158, catching the speculative community offside. If the yen holds these gains, short sellers may be forced to cover, triggering stops and systematic trend reversals that produce even more yen buying. The next COT report will show whether large speculators have already materially reduced their shorts or whether substantial short-covering fuel remains.
FXY WATCH
HIGH
16:14
Aug 06
Aug 06
Macro Voices
16d
SMH 1ST
FXI 1ST
BOTZ 1ST
FXY
GLD
▾
HIGH
AI infrastructure still has 2-3 years runway.
AI infrastructure such as chips and data centers has not yet peaked and still has room to run for the next two to three years, even as the rate of investment growth by hyperscalers declines, because other countries like China, Europe and India will increase their own investments.
SMH LONG
Chinese equities poor due to capital misallocation.
Chinese equities are not a good investment because China is misallocating capital at the fastest pace in history, driven by a 45% national saving rate that forces over-investment and over-reliance on exports, while political and ideological constraints prevent a shift toward consumption.
FXI AVOID
Robotics next AI bubble, reset offers asymmetry.
Robotics and automation could be the next destination in the AI rolling bubble, and unlike the market-leading chip and infrastructure names, this group has gone through a substantial reset. The Global X Robotics & AI ETF (BOTZ) just experienced a 20% correction back toward its year lows, clearing prior excess and creating asymmetric entry with a protective put to limit early-entry risk.
BOTZ LONG
Yen short-squeeze possible after intervention.
The Japanese yen is set up for a potential short squeeze after coordinated US-Japan intervention caught an extremely one-sided short position. Large speculator shorts were at record levels just before the intervention. If the yen holds recent gains, forced short covering and systematic trend reversals could produce additional self-reinforcing yen buying, making the next CFTC report critical to watch.
FXY WATCH
Gold breakout supported by broad metals strength.
Gold delivered a decisive 4% breakout from its multi-month range, reclaiming key moving averages and trendlines, with simultaneous strength across silver, platinum, copper, mining stocks, and uranium equities indicating a broad intermarket rotation into hard assets. Large speculator positioning remains heavily net long and supportive, suggesting the breakout has follow-through potential.
GLD LONG
Dollar at inflection; break below 99.12 bearish.
The US Dollar Index is at a critical inflection point with large speculators crowded long at the 91st percentile over three years. The key level is 99.12; a clean break below that would damage the technical structure, pull the dollar back into its prior 15-month range, and open the door for a much deeper correction.
DXY WATCH
HIGH
18:55
Jul 30
Jul 30
Macro Voices
23d
TLT
XLK
BNO
XAU
WTI
▾
HIGH
Yields will rise until Fed panics.
Inflation has been above 2% for over five years and remains sticky around 3-4%. The Fed is not panicking by raising rates, so the bond market is forcing yields higher to compensate for inflation. Long-term rates, particularly the 30-year, will keep rising until either the Fed hikes aggressively or the market pushes yields high enough to snuff out inflation concerns.
TLT SHORT
AI sector bullish, transformative, compute deficit.
AI is the most transformative technology since the railroads. Only 2% of the workforce uses it productively, and we are still in the buildout phase with a compute deficit. The AI sector is not yet in a bubble; there is a massive growth runway as businesses shift software spend toward AI, making the sector bullish with a wild ride ahead.
XLK LONG
Oil risks running higher, low inventories.
Oil is currently the independent variable driving Middle East conflict dynamics. US crude inventories are 6% below seasonal average, demand remains firm, and the Strait of Hormuz risk is unresolved. If oil prices push back toward $100 and physical tightness takes over, oil could flip to a dependent variable and run higher out of control.
BNO LONG
Gold rangebound, watch 4000-4200 breakout.
Gold has been consolidating between roughly 4,000 support and 4,200 resistance. Both bulls and bears lack decisive momentum. A break above 4,200 would suggest the market has absorbed dollar and yield headwinds and is starting a new advance; a breakdown below 4,000 would target 3,600-3,700.
XAU WATCH
Oil has fuel for short-squeeze rally.
Crude oil has rallied 40% without a meaningful reduction in large speculator short positions, which remain near a 5-year extreme. With gross longs not yet rebuilt, oil has fuel to run higher as shorts are forced to cover and longs begin adding exposure.
WTI LONG
Dollar at resistance, next moves critical.
The US dollar pushed against 52-week highs but reversed after the FOMC failed to validate hawkish expectations. The broader bullish structure remains intact; a recovery toward the highs would confirm the move, while continued weakness would open the door for a deeper correction toward lower retracement zones.
US Dollar Index (DXY) WATCH
HIGH
18:53
Jul 30
Jul 30
Macro Voices
23d
BNO
XLK
TLT
30-Year US Treasury Bond
WTI
▾
HIGH
Oil headed higher, risk of $100+
Oil is the independent variable driving geopolitical actions; the Trump administration turns dovish when oil hits $100, but inventories are critically low, demand remains strong, and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively restricted by cheap drone warfare. The risk is high that oil becomes a dependent variable and spirals higher uncontrollably. The market is at the highest point ever of flipping to that dependent variable, with no supply cushion. Brent crude was already pushing $100, and dips are being bought.
BNO LONG
AI sector set for significant upside.
AI is the most transformative technology in 100 years, comparable to the railroads. Adoption is only at 2% of the workforce, compute is in deficit, and the revenue model will come from diverting existing software spending. Jim is 'fairly bullish' on the AI sector, expecting it to rise further, though he warns it will eventually end in a bubble. The buildout is not yet overcapacity, and the upside remains significant.
XLK LONG
Bearish on TLT via put spread.
Based on the outlook for higher long-duration Treasury yields, the cleanest bearish expression is a defined-risk bear put spread on TLT. Using August 21, 2026 expiration, buy the $82 put for $0.80 and sell the $80 put for $0.30, creating a $2 wide spread for a $0.50 net debit with a 3:1 maximum payoff if TLT closes at or below $80. Implied volatility remains relatively inexpensive, offering asymmetric downside exposure with limited capital at risk. The trade also works as a protective overlay for existing long bond positions.
TLT SHORT
Long yields rise until inflation tamed.
Inflation has been above 2% for over 5 years, currently around 3-4%, and the Fed is not raising rates. The bond market is therefore taking over the tightening by pushing long-term yields higher. The 30-year yield already hit a 19-year high of 5.20% and will continue rising until either the Fed panics and hikes rates aggressively, or yields climb high enough to suppress inflation themselves. The dynamic of a dovish Fed in a sticky inflation environment means long yields can keep rising even as the Fed cuts short rates.
30-Year US Treasury Bond SHORT
Oil has further upside from positioning.
WTI crude oil has rallied 40% in a few weeks, but large speculator shorts are near a 5-year extreme and gross longs have not yet aggressively joined the move. This positioning divergence means oil still has fuel for another leg higher as shorts are forced to cover and longs rebuild exposure. The bullish trend remains intact, and dips continue to attract buying.
WTI LONG
Equities face headwinds from higher rates.
The S&P 500 has broken to a fresh one-month low and is now triggering short-term CTA selling triggers near 7455. Goldman Sachs estimates systematic funds could sell roughly $31 billion globally in the next week, rising to $184 billion over the next month if the decline continues. While medium- and long-term signals remain bullish, the bulls now face an additional mechanical headwind, where every move lower risks forced selling that adds fuel to the decline.
SPY AVOID
Gold at key inflection, watch direction.
Gold has been consolidating between $4,000 support and $4,200 resistance. Despite 10-year real yields at their highest since late 2023, gold has held $4,000, showing resilience. A breakout above $4,200 would suggest the metal has absorbed dollar and yield headwinds and is starting a new advance. Conversely, a decisive breakdown below $4,000 would complete a measured move toward $3,600–$3,700. No clear trend yet, but the setup is critical to monitor.
GLD WATCH
HIGH
18:46
Jul 30
Jul 30
Macro Voices
23d
TLT FLIP
GLD
USD
WTI
▾
HIGH
Long yields rise, TLT declines.
Persistent inflation and a hawkish Fed that still hasn't shown enough concern leave long-term yields vulnerable to further tightening by the bond market. The FOMC's hawkish hold and 30-year yield break to 5.24% signal upside pressure on yields. With implied volatility on long-duration Treasuries still relatively cheap, a bearish put spread on TLT provides asymmetric downside exposure as bonds decline, or serves as a low-cost hedge for existing long bond positions.
TLT SHORT
Gold at 4,000, watch breakout or breakdown.
Gold has spent the past month consolidating between roughly 4,000 support and 4,200 resistance, with headwinds from a firm US dollar and rising real yields. Gold shows resilience by defending the 4,000 level despite 10-year real yields at their highest since late 2023. A break above 4,200 would signal that macro pressure has been absorbed and a new advance is starting. A decisive breakdown below 4,000 would complete a downside measured move toward 3,700-3,600. The next directional move is being closely watched.
GLD WATCH
Dollar breakout or reversal watch.
The US dollar pressed against 52-week highs and threatened a bullish breakout, but the Fed's hold triggered a sharp reversal. The dollar has backed away from resistance without invalidating the broader bullish structure. The next few sessions are critical: a recovery toward highs would suggest a mere post-FOMC positioning flush, while continued weakness would interrupt the advance and open the door to a deeper mean reversion below the $100 handle. This is a key technical juncture to monitor.
USD WATCH
Geopolitics, tight supply push oil to $100.
Geopolitical risk from renewed US-Iran attacks and Strait of Hormuz threats, combined with tight US crude inventories (6% below seasonal average) and SPR drawdowns, create an increasingly thin supply buffer. Technically, crude oil recovered from a failed diplomatic correction, resumed its advance, and is back above key moving averages with dips continuing to attract demand. The broader bullish structure remains intact, setting up a potential move toward the psychologically important $100 level.
WTI LONG
HIGH
16:33
Jul 23
Jul 23
Macro Voices
1mo
GLD
US Dollar Index (DXY)
COPPER
SPY
PAVE
▾
HIGH
Gold outperforms oil and bonds.
War is always inflationary and prolonged; China's ability to keep oil prices from spiking buys time for gold to benefit; gold starting to rise with oil and rates this week, signaling a shift; gold is simpler with lower volatility and will outperform oil; ultimately, fiscal and monetary pressures favor gold as a neutral reserve asset.
GLD LONG
US dollar breaking out higher.
US dollar index forming a bull flag above the 50-day moving average after breaking out of its 15-month range; early signs of breakout; EUR weakness, USD/JPY strength, and broad dollar strength across currencies support bullish continuation.
US Dollar Index (DXY) LONG
Copper setup for breakout.
Copper positioning reset through time rather than price crash; physical demand strong with falling Chinese inventories and rising import premiums; speculative positioning now back to normal, room to rebuild; setup for breakout, watch upcoming COT report for confirmation.
COPPER WATCH
S&P 500 vulnerable, watch 7400.
S&P 500 vulnerable as MAG7 earnings not providing bullish tailwind yet; systematic trader flip points are rising; a drop of 150-200 points could trigger sell programs and a correction down to 7000; key level 7400 to watch.
SPY WATCH
US electrical grid buildout benefits.
US has underinvested in power generation for decades; lead times for electrical infrastructure are years long; private equity signals multi-year demand far beyond what public companies admit; bottlenecks in power are huge tailwinds; recommends PAVE ETF and GRID ETF.
PAVE LONG
GRID LONG
Japan industrials benefit from reshoring.
US cannot reshore manufacturing without Japan; Japan is critical for defense and industrial buildout; Japanese industrials are still early in the cycle and will do very well.
Japanese industrial equities LONG
Bitcoin thrives during monetary repression.
If bond markets break and force yield curve control, currencies weaken, and Bitcoin will do really well in that scenario.
BTC LONG
Buy semiconductor dip for upside.
If US AI faces problems, semiconductors will be dragged down, creating a buying opportunity; longer term, semiconductors will end up higher; despite eventual Chinese competition, near-term pullback is a chance to add.
SMH LONG
Sell bonds, rates headed higher.
War is always inflationary; coordinated defense spending borrowing by US, UK, Germany, Japan, and Korea turns creditors into borrowers, pushing bond yields higher; sell bonds until yield curve control is forced.
TLT SHORT
HIGH
16:02
Jul 23
Jul 23
Macro Voices
1mo
GLD FLIP
SPY
US Dollar Index (DXY)
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
▾
HIGH
Long gold hedged after 30% correction
Gold has corrected 30% over 6 months, clearing excess, but the short-term trend has not yet turned bullish. To start leaning into gold positioning, structure a hedged long in GLD at $376 with a short-term risk corridor: buy downside protection from $370 to $350 and cap upside at $415, total cost $1.75 per share, dampening drawdown risk while maintaining exposure to the first 10% upside.
GLD LONG
S&P 500 vulnerable to corrective selloff
S&P 500 has traded sideways while CTA and systematic trader flip points have risen like a trailing stop. A 150-200 point drop could trigger forced selling. The key level to watch is 7,400; a sustained break below could start a feedback loop of systematic selling toward 7,000. Earnings from MAG7 have not yet provided a bullish tailwind, leaving the market vulnerable.
SPY WATCH
Long US Dollar on bullish breakout
The US Dollar Index has formed a flagging formation above its 50-day moving average and has already broken out of a 15-month trading range. Consolidation above that range is technically bullish. A decisive break above 101.50 would confirm a new bull advance, supported by broad-based strength against cross currencies.
US Dollar Index (DXY) LONG
Watch EUR/USD breakdown below 1.14
The euro remains decisively weak against the US dollar. A sustained breakdown below 1.14 on EUR/USD could lead to a rapid move toward the 1.12 or 1.11 level in the next few weeks, aligning with the broader USD strength theme.
EUR/USD WATCH
Long USD/JPY on strong breakout
USD/JPY has broken out of a multi-week trading range to the upside, hitting the 163 handle. The move is described as 'shockingly strong' and signals continued bullish momentum for the pair.
USD/JPY LONG
Long copper on positioning reset
Copper speculative positioning has reset from an extreme through time (sideways price action), not a price breakdown, while physical fundamentals remained strong (falling Chinese inventories, rising import premiums). With the COT signal score back to 75 and room to rebuild positions, copper is entering a breakout attempt with healthy underlying support.
COPPER LONG
HIGH
16:02
Jul 23
Jul 23
Macro Voices
1mo
PAVE
COPPER
Japanese industrial equities
TLT
BTC
▾
HIGH
Power grid investment cycle supports PAVE.
The US has barely added electrical capacity in 20 years, creating a bottleneck. Companies in electrical infrastructure are seeing years of open-field demand with lead times stretching, but public companies understate the outlook. He likes the sector and notes PAVE ETF as an example.
PAVE LONG
Copper positioning reset, watch for breakout.
Copper's speculative positioning has reset from extreme highs to normal through time rather than a price crash, while physical fundamentals remain strong with falling Chinese inventories and rising import premiums. If speculators return gradually while price holds, it signals a healthy breakout.
COPPER WATCH
Japan industrials benefit from reshoring needs.
The US cannot reshore without Japan. Japan's industrial sector is still early in benefiting from this shift, with less hype than AI, and will perform well as the West builds out defense and infrastructure.
Japanese industrial equities LONG
Sell bonds as war drives yields higher.
War is inflationary and will force Western governments to borrow heavily for defense while creditors turn into borrowers. This will push yields higher until some form of yield curve control becomes necessary. Therefore, sell bonds.
TLT SHORT
Bitcoin will rally amid currency debasement.
In a scenario where global currencies weaken together under yield curve control, gold and Bitcoin will do really well. Bitcoin would rally alongside gold as a monetary debasement hedge.
BTC LONG
Buy gold as war and inflation persist.
Gold has corrected 30% over six months, clearing excess. Renewed geopolitical escalation and fiscal spending are bullish, but the short-term trend hasn't turned up yet. He proposes buying GLD shares while using a risk-collar options structure to protect against a possible final leg lower while capping upside at $415.
GLD LONG
S&P 7400 break could trigger sharp selloff.
Equity markets are vulnerable with large and small speculators crowded long. Systematic CTAs have rising flip points; a 150-200 point drop in the S&P 500 could trigger forced selling. The key level to watch is 7,400; a sustained break could lead to a correction toward 7,000.
SPY WATCH
HIGH
20:40
Jul 16
Jul 16
Macro Voices
1mo
KOL
KC
UNL
LNG
▾
HIGH
Coal benefits from post-crisis energy security push.
Coal becomes very attractive post-Hormuz because it is cheap and is a domestic energy source in most major consuming countries affected by the crisis. As governments link energy sources to national security, coal companies will benefit significantly from policy support and renewed demand, reversing their prior decline.
KOL LONG
Coffee positioning points to a durable bull market.
Coffee has transitioned from a brutal bear market to a recovery driven by severe weather, harvest delays, thin global inventories, and El Niño risks. Positioning data shows speculators covering shorts and commercials rebuilding hedges, with large specs still far from historical peak net long. If price makes new highs with expanding open interest and large spec buying, coffee may enter a durable bull market.
KC WATCH
US LNG wins from energy security and AI.
Natural gas and LNG are the biggest winners from the Hormuz crisis because countries will prioritize energy security under national security arguments, linking domestic energy to policy. Meanwhile, AI and data center power demand will massively boost electricity needs, creating a structural demand surge for US LNG exports and infrastructure. US LNG names are especially attractive.
UNL LONG
Buy Cheniere Energy on LNG infrastructure breakout.
The structural case for US LNG infrastructure is expressed via Cheniere Energy (LNG). Technically, the stock has corrected 25% from March highs, reclaimed the 50-day moving average, and broken a descending trendline. The entry is shares with a short-term protective put at 240 strike to limit downside while the breakout confirms.
LNG LONG
HIGH
20:32
Jul 16
Jul 16
Macro Voices
1mo
LNG
GLD
SPY
EWY
SILVER 1ST
▾
HIGH
Breakout signals new bull phase in LNG
US LNG infrastructure stands to benefit as countries prioritize secure energy supply while AI and data centers drive another leg higher in electricity demand. Cheniere Energy (LNG) has corrected 25% and now reclaimed its 50-day moving average and broken above the descending trend line from the March peak, suggesting the correction has run its course and a new bullish phase is starting. To manage early-breakout risk, a protective put at the $240 strike is added, creating a defined floor.
LNG LONG
Gold corrective, but asymmetry favours bulls
Gold's price action remains decisively distributive: all rallies are failing and selling pressure dominates, with a baseline near 4000. A break below 4000 could send gold to 3800 or even 3600 for a final washout. However, the asymmetry is already skewed in favor of bulls after a 1600-point decline from the highs; once the distribution cycle ends and a constructive technical backdrop emerges, gold could begin a new rally—but that transition is not here yet.
GLD WATCH
S&P uptrend losing momentum, watch 7400 breakdown
The S&P 500 remains in a bull trend with higher highs and higher lows, but momentum has been lost in recent weeks, creating a puzzle of whether a topping formation and distribution cycle is taking hold. A key level to watch is roughly 200 points lower around 7400, where systematic CTA sell triggers are slowly crawling up; if the bulls fail to keep price away from those triggers, systematic selling could amplify a summer breakdown.
SPY WATCH
KOSPI breakdown could drag semis and S&P
The KOSPI has been closely correlating with the semiconductor index; while the SMH and semis have held the 50-day moving average, a decisive downside break in the KOSPI could signal a broader breakdown in semiconductors. That would challenge the S&P 500's lead sector, making the KOSPI's behavior a critical early signal for equity market direction.
EWY WATCH
Silver washed out, positioning reset, upside likely
Silver has been far more aggressively washed out than gold, with both speculative groups scoring near the bottom of their one-year ranges and commercials only lightly hedged, indicating little froth left to protect against. In contrast, gold still shows large specs heavily net long at 52% of open interest. Silver has already been through the storm, making it relatively more attractive for an upside recovery.
SILVER LONG
Positioning reset, coffee transitioning to bull market
Coffee fell 44% from its peak over eight months, and speculators had completely abandoned the trade while commercials barely hedged. Severe weather, harvest delays in Brazil, El Niño concerns, and thin global inventories suddenly challenged expectations for a record crop, driving a ~30% surge including a historic 15% one-day move. Positioning data show large specs moved from zero to 51 in a month but remain only 15% net long versus a historical peak of ~40%. If price makes new highs with expanding open interest and large specs adding, coffee may transition from a short-covering rally to a durable bull market.
KC WATCH
Dollar bull breakout consolidation, target 103
The US Dollar Index has spent weeks in a backfilling consolidation after a large bull breakout above a 15-month trade range, now testing the 50-day moving average and previous highs. This setup is a typical buy-on-dip zone; if the dollar advances from here and reclaims 101.50, it could reopen an upside move toward 103. Bulls remain in control with no technical reversal signals.
DXY LONG
Oversold oil bounce targeting $85–90
Crude oil was deeply oversold below $70 two weeks ago and has now retraced the June decline, approaching the 50-day moving average and 50% retracement. If the pattern of buying on dips and accumulation continues, the window is open for oil to trade back to the $85–90 zone, still below the major March-May consolidation but a meaningful recovery.
WTI LONG
HIGH
19:44
Jul 16
Jul 16
Macro Voices
1mo
KOL 1ST
LNG 1ST
KC
WTI
GLD
▾
HIGH
Coal stocks benefit from national security priority.
Coal becomes attractive as a cheap, domestic energy source for many countries affected by Hormuz, now linked to national security; coal companies will perform extremely well as governments prioritize secure energy.
KOL LONG
Buy Cheniere Energy on technical breakout.
Cheniere Energy (LNG) breaks out above its 50-day moving average and descending trendline, offering a clean expression of the US LNG energy security and AI power demand thesis. A protective put at $240 hedges early breakout risk.
LNG LONG
Coffee poised for durable bull move.
Coffee futures are a watch: severe weather, harvest delays, thin inventories, and uncrowded positioning create a possible bullish setup, but the call is conditional and not an explicit buy/own/hold/current-position long.
KC WATCH
Bab el-Mandeb risk could spike oil.
Bab el-Mandeb is the next major chokepoint; Houthi attacks could cancel insurance and block 4+ mb/d of Saudi crude, pushing oil above $100. Although the closure may be short-lived, the risk is elevated and insurance costs will stay high.
WTI WATCH
Gold: wait for distribution to end.
Gold remains in a distributive downtrend, with potential for a washout to $3,800 or $3,600. However, asymmetry is shifting toward bulls, and the summer will be about recognizing when the technical backdrop turns constructive for a new rally.
GLD WATCH
Dollar bullish if above 101.50.
The US Dollar Index is consolidating above a 15-month breakout and testing the 50-day moving average. A bullish advance reclaiming 101.50 could reopen an upside move targeting 103.
DXY WATCH
US LNG wins from energy security, AI.
The Hermuz crisis has made energy security a national priority, and combined with AI/data center power demand and Qatar's LNG expansion disruption, natural gas and LNG are the biggest winners. Investing in US LNG companies is a major long-term opportunity.
UNL LONG
S&P 500: watch for breakdown below 7,400.
The S&P 500 is in an uptrend but lacking momentum. A technical level to watch is just below 7,400, where CTA sell triggers are clustered; a break below could add systematic selling and threaten the bull trend.
SPY WATCH
HIGH
18:47
Jul 09
Jul 09
Macro Voices
1mo
MacroVoices #540 Adam Parker: Beyond the AI Bubble Diversifying Portfolios in Earnings-Driven Market
XLE 1ST
SPY 1ST
XLV 1ST
MU 1ST
XLU 1ST
▾
HIGH
Overweight energy for diversification and achievability.
Energy sector offers the cleanest rotation from crowded tech; using an XLE long position with a 50/65 collar (Aug 2026 expiry) creates an asymmetric risk profile that dampens volatility while retaining upside to the 52-week high.
XLE LONG
Earnings push S&P choppily higher.
Corporate earnings have been strong and likely to support a choppy but upward-trending US equity market for at least the next 6-12 months, even if price-to-earnings multiples contract somewhat.
SPY LONG
Healthcare is mispriced, diversifies from AI.
Healthcare sector is mispriced: market assigns near-zero probability of it being the top-performing sector in the next five years, but aging demographics and political unwillingness to cut spending suggest actual likelihood is 30-40%, plus it has low correlation to AI semis.
XLV LONG
Micron is cheap with earnings upside.
Micron Technology (MU) appears undervalued, trading at 4-5x peak earnings and 10x normalized earnings after extensive simulation analysis, with significant upside to base and peak earnings over the next six months.
MU LONG
AI power demand boosts utilities sector.
Power and utilities are a meaningful part of the AI revenue chain; the market is pricing in 2031 earnings potential, and traditional utilities, gas, oil, and nuclear should benefit from prolonged AI-driven power demand.
XLU LONG
Crude oil rebounds to $90 fair value.
WTI crude oil rebounded sharply; forced liquidation likely overshot to the downside, and with constrained Strait of Hormuz flows and depleted inventories, oil is settling into a sustainable fair value zone around $90, supported by low spec positioning that could fuel a short squeeze.
WTI LONG
US dollar strength breakout holds.
US dollar bullish breakout from its 15-month trade range continues to hold, with consolidation above 100 on DXY and ongoing global funding stresses maintaining upward pressure.
UUP LONG
HIGH
18:46
Jul 09
Jul 09
Macro Voices
1mo
MacroVoices #540 Adam Parker: Beyond the AI Bubble: Diversifying Portfolios in an Earnings-Driven...
HG=F
GBP/USD
WTI
VLO
▾
HIGH
Copper long continuation with positioning room
Copper futures have reclaimed their 50-day moving average, are up more than 2% on the day, and are working back toward the top of the range. Large speculators are heavily long but small speculators are still only in the middle of their one-year range, leaving room for further upside before the trade becomes crowded.
HG=F LONG
Watch GBP for extreme positioning squeeze
The British pound shows an extreme positioning setup: commercial hedgers are at their most net long in a year while large speculators and small specs are at their most net short. This alignment creates significant fuel for a short squeeze if price starts to confirm, though no technical confirmation exists yet, so it belongs on a close watch list.
GBP/USD WATCH
Crude oil bottom near, short squeeze potential
Crude oil is near a bottom. A mini glut from the post-ceasefire surge is largely priced in, while speculator short positioning is near all-time highs, providing strong downside protection. A normalization of positioning alone could add $6-10/bbl upside, with $15-20/bbl possible if combined with a fundamental catalyst such as China re-entering the market.
WTI LONG
Long Valero on strong refining crack spreads
Refining crack spreads remain extremely elevated due to tight product markets (diesel and gasoline) even as crude prices weaken. Valero has broken to a fresh 52-week high, is the strongest name in the refining space, and positioning in gasoline is not yet crowded. A defined-risk bull call spread allows participation in the momentum while limiting risk after the extended move.
VLO LONG
HIGH
18:44
Jul 09
Jul 09
Macro Voices
1mo
DXY
GLD
ZB_F
XLE 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
Dollar breakout above 100 holds.
The US dollar's bullish breakout above a 15-month trading range is holding, with consolidation well above the 100 level on the DXY. Dollar strength and global funding stresses remain in control, and price action continues to confirm the uptrend.
DXY LONG
Gold downtrend, watch 4000 support.
Gold remains in a primary downtrend with distribution characteristics. The psychological 4000 level coincides with a Fibonacci retracement zone where long asymmetry has reset. If 4000 fails, the next key support lies at 3600–3700, representing the bearish target. No evidence of bulls defending the level, so the breakdown scenario is live.
GLD WATCH
Crack in crowded short 30-year bonds.
In the latest COT report, large speculators covered 85,000 contracts of 30-year Treasury bond shorts in one week, moving from near the bottom of the range to the middle. This is the first real crack in the crowded everyone-short-the-long-end trade, suggesting a potential reversal in long-end bonds.
ZB_F LONG
Rotate into energy from crowded tech.
Energy is a clean rotation destination for investors who want to stay constructive on equities without adding to crowded tech. The XLE energy sector ETF offers exposure to the energy leadership theme during a potentially headline-driven summer. A short-term asymmetric collar overlay dampens volatility for concentrated positions.
XLE LONG
Oil recovering from oversold forced flows.
WTI crude oil is recovering from an overshoot driven by forced flows that pushed prices too low. The narrative now discounts a war risk premium, with a 50% retracement of the two-month decline pointing back to $90. Potential short positioning adds squeeze fuel, and the advance is likely to settle into a more sustainable fair value zone.
WTI LONG
HIGH
20:46
Jul 02
Jul 02
Macro Voices
1mo
WTI
GLD
GBP/USD
CORN
VLO
▾
HIGH
Crude oil near bottom, short squeeze likely.
Extreme speculative short positioning in crude oil, combined with expectations that China will eventually return as a buyer and the spot surplus is temporary, suggests crude oil is near a bottom and could see a sharp $6-$10 bounce from position normalization, with potential for $15-$20 if a catalyst spurs momentum.
WTI WATCH
Gold at 4000 support, watch bounce.
Gold is in a primary downtrend but trading at the psychological 4,000 level, which coincides with Fibonacci retracement zones from the two-year bull advance, resetting the asymmetry of being long; a logical place for bulls to hold, though no confirmation yet.
GLD WATCH
Pound positioning extreme, squeeze possible.
The British pound is extremely washed out with commercial hedgers at their most net long and large speculators at their most net short in a year, while the U.S. dollar is crowded long; this creates asymmetric fuel for a squeeze if price begins to confirm, though no technical trigger yet.
GBP/USD WATCH
Corn long continuation, momentum turning up.
Corn futures are setting up a long continuation pattern; large speculators are heavily long but small speculators are not yet all in, momentum is turning up with price reclaiming the 50-day moving average, and positioning still has room before becoming crowded.
CORN LONG
Valero benefits from strong refining margins.
Elevated crack spreads due to tight refined product markets and supply bottlenecks favor refiners; Valero is the strongest name in the space, breaking to a new 52-week high, and presents a defined-risk momentum play via a $270/$300 bull call spread.
VLO LONG
Dollar breakout holding, watch continuation.
The U.S. dollar has broken out of a 15-month range and is holding, suggesting a potential new bullish trend; watching for a successful retest of support and a pattern of dips being bought to confirm the trend.
UUP WATCH
HIGH
20:45
Jul 02
Jul 02
Macro Voices
1mo
EWY
SPY 1ST
GBP
GLD
CORN 1ST
▾
HIGH
KOSPI breaks support, questioning AI trade high
KOSPI has experienced a legitimate breakdown along a key support line, questioning whether it has put in a high. It has been a major international proxy for the AI trade, so this breakdown raises the possibility that semiconductor profit-taking could pressure the broader equity rally and trigger sector rotation.
EWY WATCH
Crowded longs leave no dip-buying support
Large speculators have covered almost 150,000 short S&P 500 contracts in a single week, leaving them the least short all year. Funds and retail are both stacked long the S&P 500 and Dow, so the crowd that would normally buy the dip is already in. If semiconductors begin a profit-taking cycle, there is significantly less positioning support underneath the index than there was even two weeks ago.
SPY AVOID
Pound washed out, squeeze fuel exists
The British pound shows the cleanest positioning signal across currencies, with all three trader groups aligned. Commercial hedgers are at their most net long in a year, while large and small speculators are at the bottom of their one-year ranges, net short. This extreme one-sided positioning does not call the turn on its own, but the fuel for a squeeze is present if price starts to confirm. No technical confirmation yet, so it belongs on a close watch list.
GBP WATCH
Gold at support, waiting for bull confirmation
Gold remains in a primary downtrend with price action exhibiting distribution characteristics, but it is trading right at the psychological round number near $4,000, which coincides with Fibonacci retracement zones of the two-year bull advance. This suggests the asymmetry of being long has been reset, making it a logical place to see if bulls can hold the line, though no evidence of that exists yet. Commercial hedgers are doing little hedging, indicating miners are accepting price risk.
GLD WATCH
Corn momentum up, positioning room to run
Corn futures present an interesting long continuation pattern. Price has reclaimed its 50-day moving average, is up more than 2% on the day, and is working back toward the top of its range. Large speculators are heavily long, but smaller speculators are only in the middle of their range, so the trade is not yet crowded. Momentum is turning up, and there is still room in positioning before the long side becomes dangerous.
CORN LONG
Valero benefits from elevated crack spreads
Crude oil remains sloppy but petroleum products remain tight, keeping crack spreads elevated. Refiners are the part of the value chain directly benefiting, and Valero (VLO) has broken to a fresh 52-week high as one of the strongest names. Instead of buying shares outright after the extended move, a shorter-duration bull call spread (Aug 21, 2026 $270/$300) captures momentum with defined risk. Positioning shows gasoline specs and commercials are light, meaning the crack spread trade is not yet crowded, while crude itself is a coin flip.
VLO LONG
Dollar bullish breakout holds, watch trend
The US dollar has broken out of a 15-month range and is holding the breakout. An inevitable retracement and test of support will be the key test; the question is whether old dips are bought and a primary bull trend becomes well-established into the summer.
DXY WATCH
HIGH
17:58
Jul 02
Jul 02
Macro Voices
1mo
WTI
HG 1ST
British Pound (GBP/USD)
VLO 1ST
▾
HIGH
Crude near bottom, short-squeeze upside.
Crude oil is near a bottom after a sharp sell-off, with speculators holding near-record short positions; normalization of positioning alone could add $6-10 per barrel, and with a fundamental catalyst such as China returning to buy, upside could reach $15-20, creating asymmetric upside risk.
WTI LONG
Copper long continuation, positioning not crowded.
Copper futures are showing a long continuation pattern with price reclaiming the 50-day moving average and momentum turning up; positioning is not yet crowded, leaving room for retail to enter and supporting further upside.
HG LONG
Pound positioning washed, squeeze setup.
British pound is extremely washed out in positioning: commercial hedgers are the most net long in a year while large specs are the most short, setting up potential for a sharp squeeze if price action confirms, though no technical confirmation yet.
British Pound (GBP/USD) WATCH
Long Valero on strong crack spreads.
Refined product markets remain tight with diesel and gasoline crack spreads near all-time highs, supporting refiners; Valero (VLO) is a leader breaking to a 52-week high, and a bull call spread provides defined-risk exposure to the refining theme.
VLO LONG
HIGH
16:50
Jun 25
Jun 25
Macro Voices
1mo
SMH
US Bank Core Software Providers
XLE
UNG
UNL
▾
HIGH
Watch semiconductors for a pullback entry
The AI capex cycle still has legs and semiconductor demand remains strong (e.g., Micron’s breakout earnings). However, valuations are stretched. She would get interested in chip stocks if they pull back meaningfully, making them a watch candidate for entry after a correction.
SMH WATCH
Watch deeply undervalued bank software providers
A handful of core software providers that US banks run on are trading near 6x earnings with flat‑to‑higher earnings growth and strong balance sheets. The AI bear narrative has pushed these stocks into deep value territory, and while they may still fall, the valuation disconnect is becoming extreme. She is building a watch list and looking for stabilization before buying.
US Bank Core Software Providers WATCH
Stay long energy equities and pipelines
She holds long‑term positions in energy stocks and energy pipelines and prefers to stay long without chasing the run‑up. The sector benefits from persistent fiscal deficits, supply‑side constraints, and a structural underinvestment in energy that supports higher nominal prices over time.
XLE LONG
Buy natural gas for AI power demand
The growing power bottleneck from the AI buildout makes natural gas an increasingly important bridge fuel. A clean way to express this thesis is through UNL (laddered futures strip) to avoid front‑month contango drag, while December 2026 futures offer a defined‑risk vehicle for option structures such as bull call spreads.
UNG LONG
UNL LONG
Oil trends higher, replenish reserves now
Crude oil is likely to trend higher over time as strategic and commercial reserves drawn down during the crisis need to be refilled, and structural supply constraints remain. The current post‑crisis selloff brings prices to a near‑term rational level for accumulation.
WTI LONG
HIGH
16:45
Jun 25
Jun 25
Macro Voices
1mo
Natural Gas Dec 2026 Futures
DXY
GLD
UNG 1ST
UNL
▾
HIGH
Natural gas beneficiary of AI power bottleneck
AI buildout is creating a power bottleneck where electricity becomes the next constraint. Natural gas is increasingly important as a bridge fuel that can meet that real-world demand, making it attractive to be long natural gas. For implementation, UNG has structural contango drag from rolling front-month futures, making it less clean for delta-one exposure. UNL holds a laddered exposure across the curve, thus cleaner for simple long exposure. For options, using natural gas futures directly, specifically the December 2026 contract which is basing near yearly lows, allows bull call spreads for convex upside with defined risk while avoiding front-month ETF distortions.
Natural Gas Dec 2026 Futures LONG
UNG LONG
UNL LONG
Dollar breakout above 100, watch resistance
The US dollar index has broken decisively above the 100 level, clearing a 15-month ceiling. Bullish momentum is evident across major crosses (USD/JPY above 160, EUR/USD breaking below 1.14). However, sustainability is uncertain; the next resistance test is at 102-103 where the move may stall or extend. This breakout merits monitoring for a potential sustained dollar bull market.
DXY WATCH
Gold correction trend lower toward 4000
Gold is in a corrective phase with lower highs and lower lows, selling pressure has accelerated post-FOMC, and rallies are consistently met with supply. The key support is at $4,000; a break below would target the 50% retracement of the two-year bull market near $3,600. This short-to-intermediate trend is dominated by profit-taking, making gold unattractive to hold and presenting downside risk.
GLD AVOID
Oversold crude oil may revert to $80
Crude oil has collapsed from $80 to $69 on forced liquidations rather than fundamental deterioration, leaving the market extremely oversold. The intermediate fair value is seen near $80-$85. The key is to first watch where the selling pressure subsides and then look for a reversion rally to that magnet area.
WTI WATCH
HIGH
16:45
Jun 25
Jun 25
Macro Voices
1mo
SMH
US Bank Core Software Providers
NG_F
AMLP 1ST
UNL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Watch semiconductors for pullback entry
AI capex cycle still has legs, chip demand remains strong (e.g., Micron earnings). However, valuations are getting concerning, so she waits for a significant pullback to get interested in chip stocks.
SMH WATCH
Watch bank core software for value
Core banking software companies (the 3-4 providers for US banks) are trading around 6x earnings despite flat to higher earnings growth and fortress balance sheets. Bearish AI narrative has overly punished them, creating a deep value watchlist opportunity.
US Bank Core Software Providers WATCH
Long natural gas for AI power bottleneck
AI buildout creates a power bottleneck where natural gas is the crucial bridge fuel for electricity demand. Recommends being long natural gas via UNL (cleaner ETF with laddered exposure) or using options on Dec 2026 natural gas futures for convex upside with defined risk.
NG_F LONG
UNL LONG
Long energy stocks and pipelines
Holds long-term positions in energy stocks and pipelines, expects oil to trend higher over time as global reserves need refilling and supply constraints persist. Current prices rational near-term but sees upside longer term.
AMLP LONG
XLE LONG
HIGH
12:59
Jun 19
Jun 19
Macro Voices
2mo
DBA
GLD
DB 1ST
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Uranium Stocks
▾
HIGH
Food cascade ahead from disrupted planting inputs.
Supply chain disruptions during the planting season prevented timely deliveries of fertilizers, chemicals, and other crop support inputs. This sets up a potential food cascade later this year or into next year, creating investment opportunities in the food space.
DBA LONG
Gold to rally after Iran dislocation plays out.
Gold is set to rally spectacularly once the Iran oil dislocation and resulting knock-on inflation effects are truly over. Those effects are not over yet; the market is too complacent about a clean resolution.
GLD LONG
DBA bull call spread for agricultural tightening.
Brent Johnson's agricultural tightening theme points to a delayed food supply shock. The cleanest way to express the view is via DBA, using a longer-dated bull call spread (Jan 2027 27/30 call spread) to capture the thesis into late 2026/early 2027 with defined risk.
DB LONG
Dollar stays strong; dedollarization is a myth.
The US Dollar will remain strong and the dedollarization narrative is a myth. Despite reserve diversification, FX turnover, cross-border lending, and trade invoicing remain at historic highs in dollars. The dollar has structural advantages due to the dual carry trade faced by the rest of the world, which keeps it within a manageable band and allows the US to weaponize the currency. The milkshake theory continues as global capital flows into US assets.
US Dollar Index (DXY) LONG
Uranium stocks bullish long-term, summer doldrums temporary.
Uranium stocks remain in a long-term structural bull market driven by clean energy demand from AI data centers and nuclear renaissance. Seasonal weakness in summer is typical; action should pick up in late August ahead of the World Nuclear Association conference, making current levels a long-term accumulation opportunity.
Uranium Stocks LONG
Global rearmament supercycle in defense spending.
National defense will be one of the biggest investment opportunities ever. Every country will need to rearm and money will be spent on defense regardless of affordability, both in the US and globally.
ITA LONG
Oil sell-off premature; full impact yet to come.
Physical oil shortages are severe: US commercial inventories at operational minimums and SPR at its lowest since 1983. The peace deal is fragile and re-escalation is likely. Even if the Strait opens, it will take 6-10 weeks for oil to reach destinations. Oil has overshot to the downside and should fill the gap back to $85, possibly returning above $100, though $150-200 is off the table due to China's SPR buffer.
WTI LONG
HIGH
21:32
Jun 18
Jun 18
Macro Voices
2mo
US Dollar Index (DXY)
ITA 1ST
SPCX 1ST
Uranium Stocks
GLD FLIP
▾
HIGH
Dollar stays strong, de-dollarization myth.
Despite persistent predictions of de-dollarization, the U.S. dollar remains dominant in FX turnover, cross-border lending, and trade invoicing. The dollar's structural advantages, including the dual carry trade system that puts pressure on the rest of the world, will keep the dollar strong relative to foreign currencies. The 'milkshake theory' continues to work, drawing capital into the U.S.
US Dollar Index (DXY) LONG
Massive defense investment opportunity ahead.
Every country will have to rearm, and money will be spent on national defense regardless of affordability. This creates one of the biggest investment opportunities ever, both in the U.S. and abroad, as defense spending becomes a structural priority.
ITA LONG
SpaceX lockup expiry risks heavy selling.
SpaceX IPO has an aggressive lockup schedule; a clause can unlock 10% of restricted shares as early as mid-July if the price stays above the IPO price. With further unlockings coming in December, there is risk that the market struggles to absorb heavy insider selling, making the stock unattractive.
SPCX AVOID
Uranium long-term bull, seasonal bid later.
Uranium remains a strong long-term bull market, and though performance has been lackluster, the market is seasonal. A pickup is expected as the World Nuclear Association conference approaches, with late August/early September likely to bring renewed buying interest in uranium stocks.
Uranium Stocks LONG
Gold rally once oil dislocation ends.
Gold is set for a spectacular rally once the Iran oil dislocation and its associated knock-on inflation effects are fully resolved. Current uncertainty and dislocation are temporary, and gold will surge when those pressures end.
GLD LONG
Disrupted planting sets up food cascade.
The market focused on immediate energy and shipping disruptions, but the bigger opportunity is the delayed agricultural tightening from disrupted fertilizers, chemicals, and crop inputs during planting season. Positioning via an Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) January 2027 27/30 bull call spread offers defined risk with convexity to capture a potential food rally into Q4 and Q1.
DBA LONG
Oil supply effects will emerge later.
The peace-deal selloff in crude oil is overdone given that physical inventories are extremely tight, the SPR is at its lowest since 1983, and it will take months before strait traffic normalizes. As the market realizes the conflict may not be fully resolved and shortages persist, oil should retrace to fill the chart gap up to $85 and could return above $100 by year-end.
WTI LONG
HIGH
21:26
Jun 18
Jun 18
Macro Voices
2mo
XLF
ITA
XLI
USDJPY 1ST
EURUSD
▾
HIGH
Rotation into financials, defense, industrials.
After the Hormuz reopening spurred another leg higher in equities, the market may see a rebalancing rotation out of the strong performers (energy stocks and some semiconductors) into lagging sectors. Flows could broaden into financials, defense contractors, and industrials, and we'll be watching for that broader sector rotation story to emerge.
XLF WATCH
ITA WATCH
XLI WATCH
Dollar strength, yen and euro weakness.
The US dollar remains very well bid with clear strength. The yen may have a whole new leg down after the BoJ rate hike failed to move USDJPY and it is crawling above 160. The euro remains below its 50-day moving average and is breaking to lower lows. Flows into US equities are supporting the dollar, and a breakout above the 100 level on DXY is a key question.
USDJPY LONG
EURUSD SHORT
DXY LONG
Uranium stocks to catch late summer.
Remains uber-bullish long-term on uranium due to clean energy demand from AI data centers, but near-term the sector is in its seasonal summer doldrums. Action usually picks up in late August leading into the World Nuclear Association conference in early September, so that period is when the market may start to catch a bid again. Currently uranium stocks are in a distribution cycle and we are waiting for bottoming formations.
Uranium Stocks WATCH
Yields peak near 4.70%, await bond entry.
Yields on the 10-year Treasury note have been pressuring lower from the peaks a month ago and are now under 4.5%, but have not yet officially broken into a new downtrend. It is very reasonable to assume that yields near 4.70% will be a key high, but that does not make it an immediate opportunity to go long bonds. It will take a good chunk of the summer to see a meaningful turn in inflation expectations and a repricing in yields.
10-Year U.S. Treasury Note WATCH
Oil bounce to $85-$100.
Oil sold off hard on the peace deal, testing the 200-day moving average, but this is likely a local bottom. Physical shortages remain severe with commercial inventories at operational minimums and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest since 1983. The market is underestimating how long it will take to restore traffic and catch up on deliveries. An upside retracement is very likely to fill the glaring chart gap up to at least $85, and prices could be back over $100 before year-end, though the $150-$200 doomsday prediction is withdrawn because China can buffer the crisis.
WTI LONG
Long DBA for delayed agricultural supply stress.
Coming out of Brent Johnson's interview, the bigger opportunity from shipping disruptions will be delayed knock-on effects on fertilizers, chemicals, and other crop inputs, turning this into a food story into Q4 and Q1 2026. The cleanest way to express the thesis is a longer-dated bull call spread on the Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) to position for a rebound and repricing in the agricultural basket over the next seven months with defined risk.
DBA LONG
HIGH
19:53
Jun 11
Jun 11
Macro Voices
2mo
QQQ
URNM
SRUF 1ST
SPY
WTI
▾
HIGH
NASDAQ 100 faces massive drawdown risk.
NASDAQ 100 valuations are at all-time high CAPE and P/E ratios, while massive IPO supply (SpaceX, Google, Anthropic, OpenAI) forces institutions to sell liquid mega-caps to raise capital. Combined with insider/V.C. lock-up expirations and a repeat of the 2021-22 inflation shock regime, a 35-40% drawdown in the NASDAQ 100 is likely, triggering a rotation from overvalued growth into value and hard assets.
QQQ AVOID
Wait to buy uranium miners after washout.
Uranium miners (URNM, NUKZ) are high-beta and susceptible to market shocks that flush out retail tourists. A repeat of the 30-45% drawdowns seen in 2024 and 2025 is likely when broader market turmoil hits. The right strategy is to wait for that capitulation, then rotate from the uranium commodity into the miners at deeply discounted prices.
URNM WATCH
SRUF uranium commodity cheap, buy now.
The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SRUF) is attractively priced after underperforming uranium miners. The uranium market faces a serious supply-demand deficit by 2027-2029 due to overpromised mine production, brain drain, and rising global nuclear demand. Major utility contract buyers are getting nervous and will soon step up purchases. The commodity is a better immediate play than the high-beta miners while market volatility persists.
SRUF LONG
S&P 500 faces bearish 2027 hangover.
The three largest IPOs in history (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) will raise $200-250 billion immediately, but the real danger is $3 trillion in restricted insider shares unlocking by end of 2027. With the Iran conflict unlikely to be resolved and potential political gridlock after the 2026 elections, a panic-driven exodus from equities could create a powerful bear market in the S&P 500.
SPY AVOID
Crude oil set for violent spike.
Speculators have been repeatedly scared out of the crude oil market by presidential jawboning about imminent peace, but no peace deal is close and the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. Once physical storage buffers are exhausted and the market must rebalance via price, speculators will pile in all at once, causing a violent and sudden price spike much higher than would have occurred without the artificial suppression.
WTI LONG
SLB is an AI oil services play.
Schlumberger (SLB) is not only a cheap oil services company with strong free cash flow, but also a direct artificial intelligence beneficiary, controlling valuable assets and data. Oil services are significantly outperforming the S&P 500, and SLB is one of the most exciting investments in the market today.
SLB LONG
Steepener via IVOL, Fed can't hike.
Market fears of Fed rate hikes are a facade because interest on the debt is now $1.1 trillion, making a hiking cycle unsustainable. This will cause the 2s30s curve to steepen significantly. The IVOL ETF, which has been battered, is one way to play the steepener.
IVOL LONG
Intuitive Surgical data AI advantage buy.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) sits on an incredibly valuable proprietary dataset from robotic-assisted surgeries worldwide, positioning it as an AI-driven profit beast over the next 5-10 years. The stock is unloved, underowned, and currently near its 200-day moving average, presenting a screaming buy opportunity.
ISRG LONG
Agnico Eagle cheap, buyback, gold upside.
Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) has been flushed of tourist hot money, is down 40%, trading at one of the cheapest valuations in 20-30 years (5.9x EV/EBITDA), generating $6-7 billion free cash flow, and buying back $2 billion of stock. When the Fed proves unable to hike much and gold rises toward $6,500/oz over the next year, AEM could be up 100%.
AEM LONG
Healthcare sector cheap, rotation into it.
Healthcare has been aggressively sold down as investors raise cash for tech IPOs and as quantitative momentum players short low-momentum sectors. Meanwhile, aging baby boomers provide demographic support, healthcare's weight in the S&P 500 has halved, and it is now extremely cheap relative to technology. A huge rotation from high-momentum semiconductors into healthcare is likely in the second half.
XLV LONG
Tourmaline gas for data centers, cheap.
Tourmaline Oil (TOU) owns massive trapped natural gas in Canada that will become extremely valuable as data centers — facing NIMBY pushback — can be moved near the gas and harness it via private turbines. The company is already in discussions with hyperscalers. Additionally, the Strait of Hormuz conflict increases the value of secure North American gas assets for global LNG buyers.
TOU LONG
Russell 2000 will outperform S&P 500.
A great migration from the S&P 500 into the Russell 2000 is beginning, driven by too many huge IPOs sucking capital out of large-cap growth stocks and into underowned value and small-cap names. The Russell 2000 is breaking a down wedge pattern, signalling powerful rotation ahead.
IWM LONG
Gold may fall further to $3,000.
Gold has broken critical support at the 200-day moving average and the prior low of 4,100. If the Hormuz crisis remains unresolved, higher front-end Treasury yields and a rising dollar will continue to suck money out of gold, with plenty of room to the downside, potentially testing the 3,000 round-number support by year-end.
GLD SHORT
HIGH
19:45
Jun 11
Jun 11
Macro Voices
2mo
S&P 500 Index (SPX)
UUP
URA
XLV 1ST
GOLD
▾
HIGH
Watch S&P 500 at 7,300 support.
The S&P 500 corrected from 7,600 down to test its 50-day moving average near 7,300. This is a very key pullback because if 7,300 breaks, systematic selling (e.g., CTA liquidation) could kick in, potentially sending the index to retest 7,000. For now there is a chance that bulls hold this level and the market remains elevated, but the 7,300 trigger point is a critical technical level to monitor.
S&P 500 Index (SPX) WATCH
Dollar upside to 101.5 on Dixie.
The dollar rally has pushed through 99.5 on the DXY up to resistance at 100. With the Iran conflict likely to escalate further, there is more upside at least to 101.5 on the DXY. The dollar will eventually top out and roll over hard after the conflict truly winds down, but that top is not yet in place.
UUP LONG
Uranium miners face more turbulence near-term.
Uranium miners have felt toppy and a broad market risk event could drive them much lower, similar to the washout from late 2024 into April 2025. Although the long-term fundamental outlook remains extremely bullish, retail-heavy participation and margin-call risk in a broad equity selloff could create a real disaster scenario for the miners. As a result, he is not adding to positions and is bracing for considerable near-term turbulence.
URA AVOID
Long healthcare rotation via XLV with collar.
Healthcare is one of the most underowned and unloved sectors after being aggressively sold down as investors crowded into AI, semiconductors, and mega-cap tech, despite long-term demographic support from aging baby boomers. An emerging rotation out of crowded growth and momentum into value, hard assets, and underowned sectors favors a long position in healthcare. The trade is expressed through XLV with a risk-defined collar: owning shares plus buying an August 145 put and selling an August 165 call to define near-term downside while allowing upside participation.
XLV LONG
Gold has room to fall further.
Gold broke its 200-day moving average support at 4,415, leading to an acceleration lower that already took out the prior 4,100 low. If the Hormuz crisis remains unresolved, there is plenty of room for lower prices still. In a scenario where the crisis extends through year-end, a test of the 3,000 round-number support is possible.
GOLD SHORT
Crude oil violent price spike ahead.
President Trump's repeated jawboning has scared speculators out of the crude oil market, suppressing prices despite a major kinetic escalation and closed straits. The physical market is not forward-looking and must eventually rebalance via price once storage buffers are exhausted. When that moment arrives, specs who are now afraid of being trapped by social media posts will likely pile in all at once, creating a sudden and extremely violent price spike. This thesis rests on the view that a genuine peace deal with Iran is unlikely because the nuclear disagreement is irreconcilable.
WTI LONG
HIGH
17:29
Jun 11
Jun 11
Macro Voices
2mo
XLV 1ST
GLD
URA FLIP
QQQ 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
Healthcare sector deeply underowned; rotate in
Healthcare is the most underowned and unloved sector, primed for a rotation from crowded growth and momentum stocks. XLV shares are owned outright with a low-cost collar (buy Aug 145 put, sell Aug 165 call) to define near-term downside while retaining upside participation in a sector breakout.
XLV LONG
Gold decline to $3,000 possible
Gold is in a distributive breakdown after taking out its 200-day moving average and prior $4,100 low. As long as the Hormuz crisis persists and rate cut expectations evaporate, there is plenty of room for lower prices, with $3,000 a possible target by year-end.
GLD SHORT
Avoid uranium miners; washout risk
Uranium miners are a high-beta, high-retail-participation sector that will get slammed in a broad market risk-off event or AI bubble pop. Though long-term fundamentals are terrific, near-term turbulence and a washout similar to 2024-2025 are likely, so now is not the time to add.
URA AVOID
NASDAQ 100 faces 30-40% drawdown
Markets are in a 4Q 2021 redux with sticky inflation, Hormuz closure, massive AI capex, and a wave of IPOs and insider selling absorbing capital. The NASDAQ 100 has surged from 30T to 41T in under 50 trading days and faces a 30-40% drawdown similar to 2021-22. Convertible bond issuance and CFO equity sales signal smart money is distributing into passive bag holders.
QQQ SHORT
Crude oil set for violent spike
Trump's repeated jawboning has scared speculators out of the crude oil market, keeping a lid on prices despite escalating conflict and no realistic peace deal. When physical storage buffers are exhausted and the market must rebalance through price, speculators will pile in all at once, causing a sudden, violent price spike.
WTI LONG
Agnico Eagle deeply undervalued; long
Gold miners have undergone a hot money flush as weak hands exited on rate hike fears, emerging market central bank gold sales, and higher front-end yields. Agnico Eagle (AEM) is trading at 40% off with 5.9x EV/EBITDA, $6-7B free cash flow, and buying back $2B in stock. Once the Fed is unable to hike and gold rises to $6,500, AEM could double.
AEM LONG
Curve steepener via IVOL ETF
The 2s30s yield curve has flattened aggressively due to market muscle memory expecting Fed hikes, but the Fed cannot hike significantly with $1.1T in annual interest costs. This flattening is a mirage; the curve will steepen substantially over the next year. IVOL ETF is a battered vehicle that captures this steepener.
IVOL LONG
SLB is AI play in oil services
Oil services are cheap, underowned value names levered to hard assets. Schlumberger (SLB) in particular has an artificial intelligence angle that makes it one of the most exciting trades in the market as AI benefits spread beyond chips.
SLB LONG
Energy and materials are cheap winners
Energy and materials equities offer the cheapest free cash flow yields in a market dominated by expensive growth. As money migrates from financial assets to hard assets in the new inflation regime, these sectors will again be big winners like in 2022.
XLB LONG
XLE LONG
Intuitive Surgical AI data play, buy
Intuitive Surgical possesses the best proprietary surgical data, positioning it as a future AI profit beast analogous to Tesla's data advantage in autonomous driving. The stock is unloved, underowned, and trading on its 200-week moving average, presenting a screaming buy.
ISRG LONG
Sprott Uranium Trust long, huge deficit
Uranium faces a massive supply-demand deficit by 2027-29 due to overpromising by miners, brain drain, and rising nuclear demand for energy security. Utility contract buyers are getting nervous and will start panic buying in the next 12-18 months. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SRUUF) is down only 5% YTD and offers one of the most attractive commodity entry points. Rotate into miners after a market washout.
SRUUF LONG
Dollar rally to 101.50 before topping
The US Dollar Index has broken out above 99.50 and is heading for 101.50 as the Iran conflict escalates. Dollar strength will persist until the conflict shows real signs of winding down, at which point a major long-term top and reversal lower is likely.
UUP LONG
Tourmaline Oil powers data centers, long
Trapped natural gas in Canada and Texas will be harnessed to power data centers that face political pushback elsewhere. Tourmaline Oil is in discussions with hyperscalers and benefits from a friendlier Canadian political backdrop and the Strait of Hormuz disruption making North American gas more valuable. Downside 15-20%, upside 200%.
TOU.TO LONG
Russell 2000 outperforms S&P 500
Excessive IPO supply and capital raises are forcing investors to sell liquid mega-cap tech stocks to make room, driving a rotation out of the S&P 500 into the Russell 2000. Chart shows a breakout from a down wedge, signaling a multi-year move into small caps and value.
IWM LONG
HIGH
17:18
Jun 04
Jun 04
Macro Voices
2mo
PAVE
WTI
▾
HIGH
Long PAVE with protective put for industrial rebuild.
The policy regime is shifting from supporting financial assets to rebuilding physical capacity (infrastructure, supply chains, industrial production). To express this industrial rebuild theme, take a long position in the PAVE ETF (PAVE) and pair it with a protective put (July 17, 2026 $55 put) to manage short-term risk from an overbought market. The put provides a floor near the 50-day moving average, limiting downside to ~6% while allowing upside participation.
PAVE LONG
Oil asymmetric long with structural floor.
Oil has a structural floor due to depleted inventories and ongoing Iran tensions. Even without a peace deal, the depletion of hundreds of millions of barrels sets a new elevated floor, making the asymmetric trade attractive: limited downside but significant upside if supply constraints force demand destruction. I am looking for ways to play the oil upside.
WTI LONG
HIGH
17:13
Jun 04
Jun 04
Macro Voices
2mo
WTI
PAVE
▾
HIGH
Oil prices to spike substantially higher
The Strait of Hormuz closure is creating a massive supply deficit of 13-15 million barrels per day that is being drawn down from inventories at the fastest pace on record. China's ability to cushion the market through hidden stockpiles is limited. If the strait remains closed through summer, oil prices will need to spike to $150 or even $200 to temporarily ration demand, as physical market fundamentals will eventually overwhelm any jawboning or speculative positioning.
WTI LONG
Infrastructure rebuild via PAVE ETF
Michael Every's thesis of a policy shift from supporting financial assets to rebuilding the physical economy (infrastructure, supply chains, industrial capacity) makes the PAVE ETF a direct beneficiary. To manage short-term market overbought risk, pair a long PAVE share position with a July 17 $55 put, establishing a long-term exposure with defined downside protection.
PAVE LONG
HIGH
16:43
Jun 04
Jun 04
Macro Voices
2mo
PAVE 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
Long PAVE ETF for industrial rebuild theme
Michael Every's thesis that policy is shifting from supporting financial assets to rebuilding the physical economy (infrastructure, supply chains, strategic manufacturing) can be expressed via the PAVE ETF. The trade is a long position in PAVE shares paired with a near-term protective put to manage short-term market overextension risk.
PAVE LONG
Oil prices destined for sharp spike higher
The Strait of Hormuz blockade is likely to persist at least until Labor Day (September), leading to continued depletion of global oil inventories. This will eventually force a sharp move higher in oil prices, potentially to $150 or more, as physical supply-demand rebalancing overwhelms short-term jawboning efforts by the White House.
WTI LONG
HIGH
17:18
May 28
May 28
Macro Voices
2mo
WTI
URA
▾
HIGH
Buy crude oil on weakness
The selloff in crude oil is overdone due to excessive optimism over a quick resolution of the Strait of Hormuz closure. Inventories will need to be replenished even after a deal, and oil is likely to trade back toward $100+. Therefore, buying dips on weakness is a favorable risk/reward.
WTI LONG
Long URA bull call spread
The energy crisis from the Strait of Hormuz closure will accelerate the global shift away from vulnerable hydrocarbon supply chains toward nuclear power and the uranium fuel cycle. A bull call spread on the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) offers a defined-risk, asymmetric way to express this longer-term energy security theme.
URA LONG
HIGH
17:12
May 28
May 28
Macro Voices
2mo
URA
WTI
▾
HIGH
Uranium bull call spread for transition.
Long-term energy security transition toward nuclear power and the uranium fuel cycle will gain traction. A bull call spread on URA (Global X Uranium ETF) provides asymmetric risk-reward with defined downside risk and 3.5:1 upside if the theme continues to reprice.
URA LONG
Buy oil dips for tight market.
Oil markets will remain tight due to the Strait of Hormuz closure and the need for inventory replenishment. The recent weakness driven by optimism on a resolution is a buying opportunity, with crude likely to trade back toward $100+.
WTI LONG
HIGH
14:41
May 28
May 28
Macro Voices
2mo
WTI
URA
▾
HIGH
Buy crude oil on dips
Despite the recent selloff on optimism over an Iran deal, the Strait of Hormuz closure is unlikely to resolve soon. Inventories are being drawn down and demand destruction will require higher oil prices. Patrick recommends buying dips in crude oil, targeting a return to $100+.
WTI LONG
Buy URA bull call spread
The energy crisis from the Strait of Hormuz closure may accelerate a shift from hydrocarbon dependence toward nuclear power and small modular reactors. The URA ETF provides exposure to uranium miners and the nuclear fuel cycle. Using a bull call spread with Jan 2027 options offers asymmetric risk/reward with a net debit of $2.20 and max profit of $7.80.
URA LONG
HIGH
18:11
May 21
May 21
Macro Voices
3mo
XES
GLD
US Dollar Index (DXY)
WTI
XLE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long XES call for energy rebuild.
Position for the energy resilience rebuild via oil field services. The XES ETF has already rallied 72% YTD but remains a way to play the long-term aftermath. Use a Dec 18 2026 $135 call option to define risk while maintaining upside exposure, with flexibility to roll down if a peace headline causes a correction.
XES LONG
Avoid gold short-term, wait for bottom.
Gold is in a corrective phase pressured by rising oil prices and yields. It is time to exit gold longs and wait for a much lower price. Further downside to at least 4400 and possibly much lower is expected. Once oil tops out, a major buying opportunity will emerge.
GLD AVOID
Short dollar after Strait reopens.
The US dollar index will head much lower after the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Short the dollar after a potential bounce to the top of the current trading range, as the crisis resolution will remove safe-haven support and the Fed is likely to ease.
US Dollar Index (DXY) SHORT
Oil to $150-$200 if closure continues.
All buffers and safety margins are exhausted. If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for another month, oil prices must rise to $150-$200 to force 10 million barrels per day of demand destruction. The restart process after any peace deal will take months, keeping prices elevated. There is a more than 50% probability of $150-$200 oil within the next 30 days.
WTI LONG
US oil producers benefit from high prices.
US oil and gas producers will have a very good summer because higher oil prices make them highly profitable, and their stocks look cheap today relative to the potential for $150-$200 oil.
XLE LONG
HIGH
18:04
May 21
May 21
Macro Voices
3mo
DXY 1ST
GLD
XES
WTI
▾
HIGH
Short dollar after retest to 101
The dollar index closed the gap at 99.39 and will likely retest the top of the trading range around 101. After that retest, given the eventual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a longer-term decline in the dollar, it makes sense to short the dollar. The trade is to give it room to run up to the top of the range, then short.
DXY SHORT
Avoid gold near-term due to oil
Gold is inversely correlated with oil. If oil continues to spike (to $150+ as Morgan predicts), gold will fall further. The next support is 4400 (200-day moving average), but if the oil crisis deepens that level will not hold. Therefore it is time to exit gold longs and wait for much lower prices. Eventually when oil tops, gold will be a big buying opportunity, but not yet.
GLD AVOID
Oil field services for energy rebuild
Market is too focused on short-term oil headlines and missing that global energy infrastructure has been exposed as fragile. Even if a peace deal is reached, restarting flows, rebuilding confidence, and hardening the system will take months to years. Oil field services will benefit from this resilience rebuild. However, the XES ETF has already rallied 72% YTD, so a longer-dated call option is used to define risk while maintaining upside participation. The Dec 2026 $135 call at $14.25 premium provides upside above $135 with limited downside to the premium paid, and flexibility to roll down strikes if a pullback occurs.
XES LONG
Long crude oil for spike risk
The market underappreciates the risk of a prolonged Hormuz crisis. If a peace deal fails, crude oil could spike well above $130, possibly to $150+. I have a long position via bull call spreads and recently covered short calls on the September contract to leave upside open. I intend to keep buying dips on peace-deal headlines. When the Strait eventually reopens, the initial relief selloff will be a buying opportunity as recovery takes months.
WTI LONG
HIGH
17:24
May 21
May 21
Macro Voices
3mo
XOP 1ST
GLD
USO
XES 1ST
WTI 1ST
▾
HIGH
US Permian producers thrive at $100 oil.
At $100 oil, US Permian basin producers are highly profitable and having a great time. They benefit directly from elevated prices and have no ESG headwinds currently. The sector will generate strong cash flows as long as oil stays above $70-$80.
XOP LONG
Avoid gold until oil crisis peaks.
Gold has been falling inversely to oil. If oil goes to $150+, gold will break below the 200-day moving average (4400) and fall further. It is time to exit longs and wait for a lower entry. When oil peaks, gold will become a major buying opportunity.
GLD AVOID
Buy crude oil dips for upside to $150+.
Given Morgan Downey's view that oil will spike to $150+, I am buying dips in crude oil by covering short calls on my bull call spread to leave upside open. I will continue to buy peace-deal dips. The eventual reopening will create a huge buy-the-dip opportunity as restart delays push prices back up.
USO LONG
Oil field services benefit from resilience rebuild.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis exposes energy infrastructure fragility. Even if the shooting stops, hardening pipelines, restarting wells, and rebuilding confidence will take months to years. This creates a multi-year investment cycle in oil field services. The XES ETF has already rallied but using long-dated calls captures upside while limiting downside risk from peace headlines.
XES LONG
Oil to $150-$200 if crisis continues.
The Strait of Hormuz closure has exhausted all temporary buffers (SPR releases, floating storage, inventory efficiency gains) and the market is complacent. To balance the 10 million bpd supply loss, oil prices must rise enough to cause demand destruction. If the crisis continues another month, prices will reach $150-$200. Even if a peace deal is reached today, restarting shut-in production and tanker traffic will take months, keeping oil above $100 for a year or two.
WTI LONG
HIGH
17:26
May 14
May 14
Macro Voices
3mo
COPPER
WTI 1ST
GLD FLIP
SOFR 1ST
▾
HIGH
Copper bullish breakout to 7
Copper has broken out to all-time new highs and the technical setup suggests continuation. Pullbacks are shallow and well-contained, and the measured move target is $7. The bullish trend is intact with no immediate reversal catalysts, so copper should trade higher.
COPPER LONG
Oil prices to reach all-time highs
The Hormuz closure has shut in ~13 million barrels per day of oil, inventories are drawing down globally, and demand destruction has not yet occurred. Despite near-term price patience, continued stock draws will force oil prices to all-time highs if the strait remains closed. The back of the curve is already rising, signaling an inevitable price surge.
WTI LONG
Gold rally if China resolves crisis
If China successfully intervenes to resolve the Hormuz crisis, the bottom for gold is likely already in. The prior negative correlation with oil is abating, and gold is set for a substantial rally from current levels. This is a conditional bullish setup depending on a diplomatic resolution.
GLD LONG
Fed will cut more than priced
Based on Mike Green's view that the economy is weakening faster than headline data suggests, with deteriorating labor conditions, overstated payrolls, and demand destruction from the energy shock rather than persistent inflation, the market is underpricing the probability of aggressive Fed easing. The trade is a bull call spread on December 2027 SOFR futures to capture a reversal in the future policy rate path, targeting a move to higher prices as rates are cut more than expected.
SOFR LONG
HIGH
17:21
May 14
May 14
Macro Voices
3mo
URA
GLD FLIP
SOFR futures (December 2027)
SPY
COPPER 1ST
▾
HIGH
Uranium buying opportunity after correction
Long-term super bullish on uranium and nuclear, but the miners have not participated in the broad rally and may correct if semiconductors blow off. A near-term correction would be a buying opportunity, as the bullish thesis remains intact.
URA WATCH
Gold to break out in H2
Gold is showing signs of a recovery and oversold indicators suggest the bottom may be in or near. However, if the Hormuz crisis is not resolved by China, gold could still see another leg down. If China resolves the crisis, the bottom is likely in and gold could rally strongly.
GLD LONG
Bull call spread on SOFR futures
The market has repriced Fed rate expectations to a more restrictive path, but weaker labor data, demand destruction from the energy shock, and slowing growth will force the Fed to ease more aggressively. A bull call spread on the December 2027 SOFR futures allows a defined-risk bet on this reversal, with a 3.5-to-1 risk-reward if the contract settles at or above 97.
SOFR futures (December 2027) LONG
Hedge with S&P 500 put spread
Despite the strong uptrend, the Hormuz crisis is certain and imminent and could cause an economic shock. I maintain put spread hedges on the S&P 500 as insurance, even though they may expire worthless, because the downside risk is significant if the energy shock transmits to equities.
SPY SHORT
Copper bullish to new highs
Copper has broken out to all-time highs and the bull impulse should continue, with pullbacks contained to 25-50 cents. The next target is $7.00, and the copper market remains decisively bullish.
COPPER LONG
Watch for crude oil breakout
Oil has been respecting its 50-day moving average and pullbacks are being bought. With the Strait continuing to be closed and inventories drawing, there is potential for a bull impulse if WTI can clear the $100 level. Waiting for a confirmed breakout.
WTI WATCH
HIGH
17:14
May 14
May 14
Macro Voices
3mo
SOFR futures
SOFR futures (Dec 2027)
SPY FLIP
▾
HIGH
Fed will cut rates aggressively by September
The economy is weakening faster than headline data suggests due to overstated payrolls (birth-death model) and residual seasonality in inflation. By September, Kevin Warsh will cut interest rates more aggressively than the market expects as inflation moderates and demand destruction from the energy shock hits.
SOFR futures LONG
Bull call spread on Dec 2027 SOFR
To position for Mike Green's view of a more aggressive Fed easing cycle, buy a bull call spread on the December 2027 SOFR contract (buy 96.50 call, sell 97 call) for a net debit of ~11 cents. Max profit 39 cents if SOFR settles at or above 97, break-even at 96.61, risk defined. This fades the market's recent repricing that pulled rate cuts out of the curve.
SOFR futures (Dec 2027) LONG
Passive flows keep S&P biased higher
The S&P 500 is supported by mindless passive and systematic flows from 401ks, target-date fund rebalancing, and CTA short covering. As long as unemployment does not rise significantly, the mechanical bid will persist. Near-term bias should be bullish but more muted after the recent record inflows have been exhausted.
SPY LONG
HIGH
19:36
May 07
May 07
Macro Voices
3mo
URA
DBC
SPY
Crude Oil Deferred Futures
WTI
▾
HIGH
Uranium bullish after Iran resolution
Uranium prices will head higher once the Iran conflict is over, as the nuclear renaissance and supply constraints become clearer; I would welcome a dip as a buying opportunity.
URA WATCH
Structural commodity stockpiling bullish
Countries and corporations will be forced to rebuild strategic inventories of physical commodities (energy, fertilizers, industrial metals) because reliance on US Navy and just-in-time supply chains is over, leading to a structural multi-year bullish outlook for commodities.
DBC LONG
Added S&P downside hedges
With the Iran conflict unresolved and uncertainty high, I added to downside hedges on S&P 500 futures to protect against potential sharp declines.
SPY SHORT
Deferred crude oil bullish on logistics
Longer-dated crude oil contracts are less volatile and will remain buoyant due to persistent logistical bottlenecks and the time needed to replenish inventories, even if front-month prices swing on headlines.
Crude Oil Deferred Futures LONG
Oil futures too cheap six months out
Oil futures are too cheap in six months because Iran has strong incentives to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, as it generates significant revenue from tolls and higher oil prices, and the market is underestimating the persistence of the disruption.
WTI LONG
Samsung will be most profitable company
Samsung Electronics is set to become the most profitable company in history this year due to surging semiconductor demand, yet its single-digit P/E does not fully price in this earnings power.
005930.KS LONG
Renminbi is the easiest trade up
The Chinese renminbi is the easiest trade: both the US and China want a higher RMB, it is the most undervalued major currency, and it is already appreciating; a positive US-China summit outcome will likely accelerate this trend.
CNH LONG
HIGH
19:07
May 07
May 07
Macro Voices
3mo
DBC 1ST
SPY
▾
HIGH
Long DBC call for commodity stockpiling theme.
Structural shift to strategic commodity stockpiling across energy, agriculture, and industrial inputs driven by countries and corporations no longer relying on just-in-time supply chains. To position for this theme without chasing headline spikes, use the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) via a long-dated call option (Jan 15, 2027 $30 strike) to maintain upside participation while defining downside risk if geopolitical premium unwinds.
DBC LONG
Add S&P downside hedges.
Despite S&P rallying strong on unconfirmed peace rumors, breadth is poor with many stocks making new lows. The fog of war is thickening due to Trump's 60-day rule issue. To hedge against downside risk in uncertain times, added to downside hedges on S&P futures after the big move higher.
SPY SHORT
HIGH
18:33
May 07
May 07
Macro Voices
3mo
KS 1ST
SPY
DBC 1ST
CNH 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
Samsung most profitable company ever
Samsung Electronics is on track to become the most profitable company in the history of capitalism this year, driven by AI semiconductor demand, yet the stock is not fully pricing in this outcome. The company trades at a single-digit P/E, similar to cyclical oil stocks at past peaks, offering value despite the cyclical nature of the business.
KS LONG
Added downside hedges on S&P
Given the uncertainty around the Iran conflict, the 60-day rule, and the possibility of further escalation, I used the rally in S&P futures to add downside hedges. The fog of war is thick, and I prefer to be hedged even if the rally continues, because the risk of a sudden reversal is high.
SPY SHORT
Structural bullish for commodities
Rather than buying the DBC ETF outright, which is highly sensitive to crude oil headlines, use a long-dated call option (Jan 2027 $30 strike) on DBC to gain convex long exposure to the broader commodity stockpiling theme while limiting downside risk in case of a short-term geopolitical de-escalation. The goal is to participate in the long-term structural thesis without the full volatility of the underlying.
DBC LONG
Easy trade: renminbi moving up
The Chinese renminbi is the most undervalued currency in the world and has the strongest momentum. Both the US and China want a higher RMB, and it is already rising. This is the easiest trade because of alignment of incentives and massive valuation tailwinds, and it will likely continue to rise 5-8% per year for the next few years, especially if the Trump-Xi summits go well.
CNH LONG
Oil futures too cheap in six months
The oil forward curve prices in a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within months, but Iran has strong incentives to keep the strait closed or impose tolls, and Saudi Arabia may prefer to sell less oil at higher prices. Therefore, oil in six months is too cheap, and the market is underestimating the persistence of the disruption.
WTI LONG
HIGH
18:31
Apr 30
Apr 30
Macro Voices
3mo
GOLD
XLF
USO
EUFN
SPY
▾
HIGH
AVOID gold; selloff likely ahead.
Gold will likely sell off further as the oil crunch forces the Fed to consider rate hikes, creating downside pressure. Erik sold more than half his gold position to reduce risk.
GOLD AVOID
Long US financials, short European financials.
European financials have materially outperformed US financials, but underlying macro stress in Europe will reverse this relative performance. The trade is long US financials (XLF) vs short European financials (EUFN) to capture the divergence.
XLF LONG
EUFN SHORT
LONG crude oil as crisis continues.
The Iran crisis will continue with the Strait of Hormuz closed, leading to sustained upward pressure on crude oil prices. Erik bought the dip and expects further gains as physical shortages hit the market.
USO LONG
SHORT S&P on coming oil shock.
The stock market is in denial about the coming oil shock, which will trigger a global recession-like selloff similar to COVID. Erik doubled down on his S&P 500 hedge position and will add more on bounces.
SPY SHORT
HIGH
18:29
Apr 30
Apr 30
Macro Voices
3mo
GOLD
EUFN
WTI crude oil futures
XLF
SPY
▾
HIGH
Gold avoid ahead of oil shock.
Rising crude oil prices will force the Fed to consider rate hikes rather than cuts, which is negative for gold. Erik sold more than half his gold position on the spike above 4730, expecting further downside as the oil crunch worsens and the market panics, potentially bringing gold to new lows below the 200-day moving average.
GOLD AVOID
Short EUFN vs long XLF for divergence.
Underlying economic stress is building in Europe, which will hit financials with a lag, while the US financial sector is more resilient. The European financials (EUFN) have outperformed US financials (XLF) by a large margin since early 2025, creating an opportunity to fade that relative performance by shorting EUFN and going long XLF to capture the divergence as macro stress surfaces.
EUFN SHORT
XLF LONG
Buy crude on strait closure.
The Strait of Hormuz closure will keep crude oil prices under upward pressure until a deal is reached. Erik bought WTI futures at $79 and expects continued gains as the market realizes the severity of the disruption. The UAE leaving OPEC further signals a regime shift in spare capacity, supporting higher prices in the near term.
WTI crude oil futures LONG
S&P hedge on oil crisis denial.
The oil crisis from the Strait of Hormuz closure is building and will eventually cause a market selloff similar to COVID. The market remains in denial, so a hedge on the S&P 500 is warranted. Erik doubled down on his S&P hedge after the spike to 7200, expecting a selloff as the real impacts of the oil shortage are felt.
SPY SHORT
HIGH
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