Name: Trade of The Week - MacroVoices #536
Uploaded: 2026-06-11T19:45:02+00:00
Duration: 1652 s

Speakers

Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices

Erik Townsend — Founder & Host, MacroVoices

Summary

Patrick Ceresna presents a trade of the week positioning for a rotation into underowned healthcare via XLV with a protective collar. Erik Townsend then discusses a bearish macro overhang from mega-IPOs and restricted-share unlocks, while the two hosts review technicals for the S&P 500, US dollar, crude oil, gold, and uranium. Key views include near-term dollar and oil upside, further gold and uranium miner downside, and a critical S&P 500 support level to watch.

Trade of the week: long healthcare (XLV) with a collar to capture a rotation out of crowded growth/momentum into unloved sectors.
S&P 500 is testing the 7,300 support level where systematic selling could trigger a drop to 7,000 if it breaks.
US Dollar Index expected to grind higher to 101.5 on escalating Iran tensions before eventually topping out.
Crude oil suppressed by presidential jawboning but poised for a violent speculator-driven spike when the physical market must rebalance.
Gold broke its 200-day moving average and could test 3,900 or even 3,400 in a continued correction, with 3,000 possible in an extended Hormuz crisis.
Uranium miners face near-term turbulence and possible washout despite attractive long-term fundamentals.
Macro overhang from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPOs and $3 trillion in restricted share unlocks creates a potential 2027 equity headwind.
10-year Treasury yields are consolidating; the hosts remain neutral while watching for an oil-driven inflation impulse.

Ideas

Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 1:23

Long healthcare rotation via XLV with collar.

Healthcare is one of the most underowned and unloved sectors after being aggressively sold down as investors crowded into AI, semiconductors, and mega-cap tech, despite long-term demographic support from aging baby boomers. An emerging rotation out of crowded growth and momentum into value, hard assets, and underowned sectors favors a long position in healthcare. The trade is expressed through XLV with a risk-defined collar: owning shares plus buying an August 145 put and selling an August 165 call to define near-term downside while allowing upside participation.

Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 7:16

Watch S&P 500 at 7,300 support.

The S&P 500 corrected from 7,600 down to test its 50-day moving average near 7,300. This is a very key pullback because if 7,300 breaks, systematic selling (e.g., CTA liquidation) could kick in, potentially sending the index to retest 7,000. For now there is a chance that bulls hold this level and the market remains elevated, but the 7,300 trigger point is a critical technical level to monitor.

Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices 9:29

Dollar upside to 101.5 on Dixie.

The dollar rally has pushed through 99.5 on the DXY up to resistance at 100. With the Iran conflict likely to escalate further, there is more upside at least to 101.5 on the DXY. The dollar will eventually top out and roll over hard after the conflict truly winds down, but that top is not yet in place.

Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices 11:03

Crude oil violent price spike ahead.

President Trump's repeated jawboning has scared speculators out of the crude oil market, suppressing prices despite a major kinetic escalation and closed straits. The physical market is not forward-looking and must eventually rebalance via price once storage buffers are exhausted. When that moment arrives, specs who are now afraid of being trapped by social media posts will likely pile in all at once, creating a sudden and extremely violent price spike. This thesis rests on the view that a genuine peace deal with Iran is unlikely because the nuclear disagreement is irreconcilable.

Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices 17:09

Gold has room to fall further.

Gold broke its 200-day moving average support at 4,415, leading to an acceleration lower that already took out the prior 4,100 low. If the Hormuz crisis remains unresolved, there is plenty of room for lower prices still. In a scenario where the crisis extends through year-end, a test of the 3,000 round-number support is possible.

Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices 19:54

Uranium miners face more turbulence near-term.

Uranium miners have felt toppy and a broad market risk event could drive them much lower, similar to the washout from late 2024 into April 2025. Although the long-term fundamental outlook remains extremely bullish, retail-heavy participation and margin-call risk in a broad equity selloff could create a real disaster scenario for the miners. As a result, he is not adding to positions and is bracing for considerable near-term turbulence.

Trade of The Week - MacroVoices #536

Summary

Ideas

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