A lot remains to be seen in terms of a conclusive Iran agreement, says RBC's Helima Croft

Summary

The discussion centers on whether Trump's threats forced Iran back to negotiations. Helima Croft warns that conflicting headlines and lack of sign-off from Iran's Supreme Leader mean a conclusive deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz is not yet certain. Michelle Caruso-Cabrera highlights the credible military buildup and threat to seize Kharg Island as leverage that may have drawn Iran to talk. The conversation notes market reactions to deal rumors but stresses skepticism until concrete details emerge.

• Contradictory headlines about a US-Iran deal move markets but lack final approval from Iran's Supreme Leader
• Trump called off additional strikes and says a deal is close, but reports are being walked back
• Uncertainty surrounds who is actually speaking for Iran and the physical state of the supreme leader
• The threat to take Kharg Island—where 90% of Iranian exports flow—represents a major escalation and bargaining chip
• A large US military buildup in the region (jets, refueling, personnel) makes the threat credible
• Ships in the Strait of Hormuz are turning off transponders, obscuring shipping activity
• Treasury proposal to use Iran's frozen funds for regional reconstruction is unlikely to be accepted by Tehran
• Investors should treat deal headlines with caution until a substantial agreement is confirmed