#192
Alpha Score 74.6
Lyn Alden
Founder, Lyn Alden Investment Strategy
Ticker
Side
Mentions
Opened
Entry
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Apr 10
$72692.00
-10.5%
Continuing to hold a long Bitcoin position as a structural, ongoing trade against the Federal Reserve.
Continuing to hold a long Bitcoin position as a structural, ongoing trade against the Federal Reserve.
Crypto
Long
May 16
$417.29
-2.3%
Gold is a hard money asset with a low supply growth rate (1-2% per year) compared to the US money supply growth (around 7% per year). In a regime of fiscal dominance where rising interest rates blow out fiscal deficits, gold's dilution rate is far more favorable than that of Treasuries, making it a long-term store of value even when real interest rates are positive. This shift in monetary conditions, along with de-dollarization and central bank buying, supports higher gold prices over time.
Macro
Long
May 13
$57.52
+2.1%
Energy and commodity producers serve as a strategic hedge against stagflationary shocks such as the Strait of Hormuz closure. They perform well when input costs rise, and current disruptions boost cash flows. She holds the position long-term and does not chase recent gains.
Energy
Long
May 16
$170.58
+1.1%
Japanese trading companies (sogo shosha) are effectively leveraged to scarce assets (commodities, convenience stores, logistics). They borrow at near-zero yen rates and own hard assets, which makes them a way to benefit from the structure of shorting fiat currency. Lyn Alden has been long these companies for years and remains long, similar to Berkshire Hathaway's position.
Macro
Long
May 16
$556.34
+12.6%
Semiconductors are a structural bottleneck and a real growth area. Despite being consensus, the thesis is correct. Lyn Alden uses drawdowns in the sector to re-enter, buying on dips because the fundamental demand drivers (AI, data centers, electrification) remain intact and the supply chain is tight.
AI/Semi
Long
May 16
$51.10
-0.4%
Banks and financials are resilient because they hold high levels of reserves and safe assets, they are on the receiving side of fiscal deficits (earning higher interest on their holdings), and they trade at cheap valuations. This makes them an attractive value dividend play in both US and Latin American markets.
Fintech
Long
May 13
$61.88
+0.3%
Banks in general are attractive from a value perspective. They offer low multiples and potential for returns as part of a barbell approach alongside growthier assets like Bitcoin and AI.
Fintech
Long
Mar 30
$124.20
+13.6%
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a major bullish catalyst for oil prices due to a persistent supply shock.
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a major bullish catalyst for oil prices due to a persistent supply shock.
Energy
Short
Feb 24
$50.98
+0.2%
The author is making a direct, explicit call to short the financial sector.
Fintech
Long
Feb 03
$51.70
-2.5%
The US is entering an era of "Industrial Policy" and "Mercantilism" (e.g., Trump's "Project Vault" for critical minerals). In a multipolar, adversarial world, efficiency (globalization) is replaced by resiliency (stockpiles). Governments must secure physical supplies of uranium, rare earths, and copper, creating a price floor and structural demand. Structurally bullish on commodities essential for national security and energy. Government price controls or windfall taxes on mining companies.
The US is entering an era of "Industrial Policy" and "Mercantilism" (e.g., Trump's "Project Vault" for critical minerals). In a multipolar, adversarial world, efficiency (globalization) is replaced by resiliency (stockpiles). Governments must secure physical supplies of uranium, rare earths, and copper, creating a price floor and structural demand. Structurally bullish on commodities essential for national security and energy. Government price controls or windfall taxes on mining companies.
Energy
Long
Jan 08
$104.44
-4.3%
1. THE FACT: "network effects are a big deal and last longer than anyone thinks. They are rarely factored into sensational analysis such as this." The "train" (referring to a trend, likely tech/network-driven) will not stop.
2. THE BRIDGE: Underestimation of network effects' longevity means current valuations or future growth projections for companies benefiting from strong network effects might be too conservative.
3. THE VERDICT: Long companies with strong network effects due to their underestimated longevity.
1. THE FACT: "network effects are a big deal and last longer than anyone thinks. They are rarely factored into sensational analysis such as this." The "train" (referring to a trend, likely tech/network-driven) will not stop.
2. THE BRIDGE: Underestimation of network effects' longevity means current valuations or future growth projections for companies benefiting from strong network effects might be too conservative.
3. THE VERDICT: Long companies with strong network effects due to their underestimated longevity.
AI/Semi
Long
Jan 08
$144.24
+34.0%
1. THE FACT: "network effects are a big deal and last longer than anyone thinks. They are rarely factored into sensational analysis such as this." The "train" (referring to a trend, likely tech/network-driven) will not stop.
2. THE BRIDGE: Underestimation of network effects' longevity means current valuations or future growth projections for companies benefiting from strong network effects might be too conservative.
3. THE VERDICT: Long companies with strong network effects due to their underestimated longevity.
1. THE FACT: "network effects are a big deal and last longer than anyone thinks. They are rarely factored into sensational analysis such as this." The "train" (referring to a trend, likely tech/network-driven) will not stop.
2. THE BRIDGE: Underestimation of network effects' longevity means current valuations or future growth projections for companies benefiting from strong network effects might be too conservative.
3. THE VERDICT: Long companies with strong network effects due to their underestimated longevity.
AI/Semi
Long
Dec 23
$66.67
+1.8%
1. THE FACT: During the Spring 2023 regional bank crisis, the speaker held the unpopular view that most banks would be fine. This view was validated as bank stocks in aggregate recently touched new highs.
2. THE BRIDGE: The speaker's past accurate analysis suggests a deeper understanding of the banking sector's resilience than popular sentiment. The recent new highs confirm the underlying strength.
3. THE VERDICT: Regional banks have demonstrated resilience and are likely to continue performing well, contrary to sensationalist narratives.
1. THE FACT: During the Spring 2023 regional bank crisis, the speaker held the unpopular view that most banks would be fine. This view was validated as bank stocks in aggregate recently touched new highs.
2. THE BRIDGE: The speaker's past accurate analysis suggests a deeper understanding of the banking sector's resilience than popular sentiment. The recent new highs confirm the underlying strength.
3. THE VERDICT: Regional banks have demonstrated resilience and are likely to continue performing well, contrary to sensationalist narratives.
Fintech
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