Name: MacroVoices #540 Adam Parker: Beyond the AI Bubble Diversifying Portfolios in Earnings-Driven Market
Uploaded: 2026-07-09T18:47:31+00:00
Duration: 2518 s

Speakers

Adam Parker — Head of Quantitative Research, Houlihan Lokey

Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices

Michelle McNan

Summary

Adam Parker discusses his constructive US equity outlook driven by strong earnings, recommends overweighting energy and healthcare for diversification from AI concentration, and singles out Micron as cheap. The trading desk highlights an XLE collar trade, a crude oil rebound to $90, and continued US dollar strength.

US equity market expected to trend higher on earnings support despite potential multiple contraction.
Energy sector favored for above-average estimate achievability and 40-year low correlation to tech.
Healthcare sector seen as mispriced with low AI correlation and demographic tailwinds.
Micron Technology called cheap with significant earnings upside potential.
Power and utilities poised to benefit from AI-driven energy demand.
Patrick Ceresna structures an XLE collar trade to capture energy rotation with defined risk.
WTI crude oil projected to settle around $90 fair value after short-covering rally.
US dollar breakout holds, supported by funding stresses and positioning.

Ideas

Adam Parker Head of Quantitative Research, Houlihan Lokey 3:36

Earnings push S&P choppily higher.

Corporate earnings have been strong and likely to support a choppy but upward-trending US equity market for at least the next 6-12 months, even if price-to-earnings multiples contract somewhat.

Adam Parker Head of Quantitative Research, Houlihan Lokey 7:40

Micron is cheap with earnings upside.

Micron Technology (MU) appears undervalued, trading at 4-5x peak earnings and 10x normalized earnings after extensive simulation analysis, with significant upside to base and peak earnings over the next six months.

Adam Parker Head of Quantitative Research, Houlihan Lokey 9:12

AI power demand boosts utilities sector.

Power and utilities are a meaningful part of the AI revenue chain; the market is pricing in 2031 earnings potential, and traditional utilities, gas, oil, and nuclear should benefit from prolonged AI-driven power demand.

Adam Parker Head of Quantitative Research, Houlihan Lokey 12:01

Healthcare is mispriced, diversifies from AI.

Healthcare sector is mispriced: market assigns near-zero probability of it being the top-performing sector in the next five years, but aging demographics and political unwillingness to cut spending suggest actual likelihood is 30-40%, plus it has low correlation to AI semis.

Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 34:37

US dollar strength breakout holds.

US dollar bullish breakout from its 15-month trade range continues to hold, with consolidation above 100 on DXY and ongoing global funding stresses maintaining upward pressure.

Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 35:23

Crude oil rebounds to $90 fair value.

WTI crude oil rebounded sharply; forced liquidation likely overshot to the downside, and with constrained Strait of Hormuz flows and depleted inventories, oil is settling into a sustainable fair value zone around $90, supported by low spec positioning that could fuel a short squeeze.

MacroVoices #540 Adam Parker: Beyond the AI Bubble Diversifying Portfolios in Earnings-Driven Market

Summary

Ideas

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