Calls
2
Morgan Downey
CEO, Boxwood; Author, Oil 101
Win Rate
0.0%
return
-16.0%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
Opened
Entry
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
May 21
$143.95
-24.5%
The Strait of Hormuz closure has exhausted all temporary buffers (SPR releases, floating storage, inventory efficiency gains) and the market is complacent. To balance the 10 million bpd supply loss, oil prices must rise enough to cause demand destruction. If the crisis continues another month, prices will reach $150-$200. Even if a peace deal is reached today, restarting shut-in production and tanker traffic will take months, keeping oil above $100 for a year or two.
Commodities
Long
May 21
$171.37
-7.5%
At $100 oil, US Permian basin producers are highly profitable and having a great time. They benefit directly from elevated prices and have no ESG headwinds currently. The sector will generate strong cash flows as long as oil stays above $70-$80.
Thematic ETFs
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Morgan Downey has 2 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 2 tickers since May 2026. Most covered: BNO, XOP.
