Ideas
NASDAQ 100 faces 30-40% drawdown
Markets are in a 4Q 2021 redux with sticky inflation, Hormuz closure, massive AI capex, and a wave of IPOs and insider selling absorbing capital. The NASDAQ 100 has surged from 30T to 41T in under 50 trading days and faces a 30-40% drawdown similar to 2021-22. Convertible bond issuance and CFO equity sales signal smart money is distributing into passive bag holders.
Energy and materials are cheap winners
Energy and materials equities offer the cheapest free cash flow yields in a market dominated by expensive growth. As money migrates from financial assets to hard assets in the new inflation regime, these sectors will again be big winners like in 2022.
Agnico Eagle deeply undervalued; long
Gold miners have undergone a hot money flush as weak hands exited on rate hike fears, emerging market central bank gold sales, and higher front-end yields. Agnico Eagle (AEM) is trading at 40% off with 5.9x EV/EBITDA, $6-7B free cash flow, and buying back $2B in stock. Once the Fed is unable to hike and gold rises to $6,500, AEM could double.
Curve steepener via IVOL ETF
The 2s30s yield curve has flattened aggressively due to market muscle memory expecting Fed hikes, but the Fed cannot hike significantly with $1.1T in annual interest costs. This flattening is a mirage; the curve will steepen substantially over the next year. IVOL ETF is a battered vehicle that captures this steepener.
Russell 2000 outperforms S&P 500
Excessive IPO supply and capital raises are forcing investors to sell liquid mega-cap tech stocks to make room, driving a rotation out of the S&P 500 into the Russell 2000. Chart shows a breakout from a down wedge, signaling a multi-year move into small caps and value.
SLB is AI play in oil services
Oil services are cheap, underowned value names levered to hard assets. Schlumberger (SLB) in particular has an artificial intelligence angle that makes it one of the most exciting trades in the market as AI benefits spread beyond chips.
Healthcare sector deeply underowned; rotate in
Healthcare is the most underowned and unloved sector, primed for a rotation from crowded growth and momentum stocks. XLV shares are owned outright with a low-cost collar (buy Aug 145 put, sell Aug 165 call) to define near-term downside while retaining upside participation in a sector breakout.
Intuitive Surgical AI data play, buy
Intuitive Surgical possesses the best proprietary surgical data, positioning it as a future AI profit beast analogous to Tesla's data advantage in autonomous driving. The stock is unloved, underowned, and trading on its 200-week moving average, presenting a screaming buy.
Tourmaline Oil powers data centers, long
Trapped natural gas in Canada and Texas will be harnessed to power data centers that face political pushback elsewhere. Tourmaline Oil is in discussions with hyperscalers and benefits from a friendlier Canadian political backdrop and the Strait of Hormuz disruption making North American gas more valuable. Downside 15-20%, upside 200%.
Sprott Uranium Trust long, huge deficit
Uranium faces a massive supply-demand deficit by 2027-29 due to overpromising by miners, brain drain, and rising nuclear demand for energy security. Utility contract buyers are getting nervous and will start panic buying in the next 12-18 months. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SRUUF) is down only 5% YTD and offers one of the most attractive commodity entry points. Rotate into miners after a market washout.
Dollar rally to 101.50 before topping
The US Dollar Index has broken out above 99.50 and is heading for 101.50 as the Iran conflict escalates. Dollar strength will persist until the conflict shows real signs of winding down, at which point a major long-term top and reversal lower is likely.
Crude oil set for violent spike
Trump's repeated jawboning has scared speculators out of the crude oil market, keeping a lid on prices despite escalating conflict and no realistic peace deal. When physical storage buffers are exhausted and the market must rebalance through price, speculators will pile in all at once, causing a sudden, violent price spike.
Gold decline to $3,000 possible
Gold is in a distributive breakdown after taking out its 200-day moving average and prior $4,100 low. As long as the Hormuz crisis persists and rate cut expectations evaporate, there is plenty of room for lower prices, with $3,000 a possible target by year-end.
Avoid uranium miners; washout risk
Uranium miners are a high-beta, high-retail-participation sector that will get slammed in a broad market risk-off event or AI bubble pop. Though long-term fundamentals are terrific, near-term turbulence and a washout similar to 2024-2025 are likely, so now is not the time to add.
This Macro Voices video, published June 11, 2026,
features Lawrence McDonald, Erik Townsend
discussing QQQ, XLB, XLE, AEM, IVOL, IWM, SLB, XLV, ISRG, Tourmaline Oil Corp, SRUUF, UUP, WTI, GLD, URA.
14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Lawrence McDonald,
Erik Townsend
· Tickers:
QQQ,
XLB,
XLE,
AEM,
IVOL,
IWM,
SLB,
XLV,
ISRG,
Tourmaline Oil Corp,
SRUUF,
UUP,
WTI,
GLD,
URA
