SLB Schlumberger Limited : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

Schlumberger benefits from conflict-driven repairs.

"I think domestic producers are cautious... The last thing they wanna do is hire an expensive rig and workers and pull them out this summer and then find that we've had a crash after a spike." Typically, triple-digit oil prices trigger a massive increase in capital expenditure and drilling activity, which directly benefits oilfield service companies and rig operators. However, because E&P companies have learned from past boom-bust cycles, they will refuse to increase drilling activity, starving the service sector of expected revenue growth despite high commodity prices. AVOID oilfield services and drillers, as they will not experience the fundamental business boom usually associated with $100+ oil. If the disruption lasts longer than expected and oil prices stabilize at high levels for multiple quarters, producers may eventually capitulate and increase drilling budgets.

In the meantime, we're also seeing the White House throwing everything they can at this, be it discussion of releasing of reserves, relaxing of the Jones Act, drilling. The administration is desperate to keep a ceiling on energy prices ahead of geopolitical and domestic pressures. If Middle Eastern supply remains constrained and SPR releases run dry, the US government will be forced to pivot toward incentivizing domestic production. This regulatory easing and push for domestic drilling directly benefits oilfield services and equipment providers who facilitate US onshore and offshore extraction. LONG US oilfield services, as they are the primary beneficiaries of any government-backed mandate or economic incentive to increase domestic drilling activity to offset Middle East disruptions. The administration could reverse its stance on domestic drilling due to environmental pushback, or oil prices could drop, reducing the capital expenditure budgets of exploration and production companies.

The company has explicitly cut its forward revenue guidance due to a halt in regional operations, providing a clear fundamental catalyst for downside.

Depletion is such 5% a year where if we don't keep drilling, we're going to start to have a decline. I was more into the services companies than I were the producers because that's really where the operating leverage is. Global oil depletion rates force exploration and production companies to continuously spend capital on drilling just to maintain flat output. This guaranteed capital expenditure flows directly to the top line of oilfield service providers, insulating them somewhat from short-term spot oil volatility. LONG. Oil services offer superior operating leverage and benefit from the structural necessity of continuous global drilling. A severe global recession that temporarily destroys oil demand and forces E&P companies to slash capital expenditure budgets.

"Being blessed by God to have oil gas the way that most GCC countries have and Iran so has gives them an advantage... Iran is one of the most untapped economic opportunities." While Iran has the reserves, its extraction infrastructure is antiquated. Unlike the GCC states (UAE/Saudi) which have modernized, Iran has been isolated. A friendly regime would immediately invite Western Oil Services majors (Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes) to upgrade fields. This is a pure CapEx play, regardless of where the price of oil goes. LONG. These companies provide the picks and shovels for the energy modernization Shervin describes. A flood of Iranian oil onto the global market could crash crude prices, potentially reducing global CapEx budgets, even if Iran's specific spend increases.

A caller asked about Transocean (RIG). RIG has too much debt. In the oil services sector, quality and balance sheet strength are paramount. Avoid RIG; buy Halliburton or SLB instead. Oil price volatility.

Noble says, "I love energy... particularly like the oil service companies." He explicitly names Schlumberger (SLB), Tidewater (TDW), and Valaris (VAL). The sector is under-owned (3% of S&P). Global depletion rates (~5% annually) necessitate constant drilling activity regardless of short-term oil price fluctuations. Service companies have pricing power due to equipment shortages. Long Oil Services for a valuation mean reversion and activity super-cycle. A deep global recession crushing energy demand.