Name: Ted Oakley: Energy Could Do What Gold Did Last Year, and It's Massively Underowned
Uploaded: 2026-05-21T14:00:12+00:00
Duration: 1653 s

Speakers

Ted Oakley — Founder & Managing Partner, Oxbow Advisors

Summary

Ted Oakley discusses the stark disconnect between Wall Street momentum and a weakening consumer, maintains 50% cash in short-term Treasuries, and is heavily invested in energy and commodities. He expects inflation to rise further, sees long-term bonds as dangerous, and believes gold could correct near-term before resuming its uptrend. He warns that speculative fever will persist until a recession breaks it.

Consumer credit delinquencies have reached Great Financial Crisis levels.
Wall Street momentum is narrow and speculative, reminiscent of 1999.
Energy is massively underowned at 3% of the S&P and is his largest position.
Commodity super cycle is in early innings, with holdings in Rio Tinto and Vale.
Gold may drop to $3,800–$4,000 to shake out momentum players.
Inflation is expected to hit 4.25% in May and 4.75% by fall.
Long-term Treasuries are dangerous; short-term Treasuries are preferred.
No recession is on the horizon to end the speculative rally.

Trade Ideas

Ted Oakley Founder & Managing Partner, Oxbow Advisors 5:36

Hold short-term Treasuries, stay liquid.

He maintains approximately 50% cash in short-term Treasuries (maturities less than 18 months) because most companies are too expensive and few opportunities meet his screening criteria. This liquidity is a deliberate defensive position to deploy when better risk/reward appears.

Ted Oakley Founder & Managing Partner, Oxbow Advisors 5:56

Avoid long-term Treasuries, inflation rising.

Long-term Treasuries are dangerous and should be avoided because inflation is rising (forecast 4.25% in May, potentially 4.75% by fall) and the 60/40 portfolio has failed for years. Interest rates will remain under pressure, making long-dated bonds a losing trade.

Ted Oakley Founder & Managing Partner, Oxbow Advisors 12:17

Energy underowned, expect massive rally.

Energy is massively underowned at only 3% of the S&P 500, up 35% year-to-date, and will likely rip like gold and silver did last year as investors scramble to catch up. He owns a full spectrum from producers (Chevron, Exxon, Matador) to midstream/pipelines (Enterprise Products, Energy Transfer) to rigs (Transocean, Noble Drilling) and services (Schlumberger, National Energy Services Reunited). The thesis is supported by strong cash flows, dividends, and years of required maintenance work.

Ted Oakley Founder & Managing Partner, Oxbow Advisors 17:37

Early commodity super cycle, buy miners.

We are in the early innings of a commodity super cycle that most investors are missing. He owns a diversified basket including Rio Tinto (iron ore, other metals) and Vale (iron ore), both with high dividends, as well as exposure to tungsten, fertilizer, uranium, and antimony. The cycle has been telegraphed for years but remains underowned.

Ted Oakley Founder & Managing Partner, Oxbow Advisors 21:30

Gold near-term downside, watch for shakeout.

Gold bullion and miners have a near-term downside risk because momentum players from last year's surge are still holding and need to be shaken out. He sees potential for gold to fall to $3,800–$4,000 before a sustainable rally. He is watching for further weakness and may trim miners more if conditions worsen.

Ted Oakley: Energy Could Do What Gold Did Last Year, and It's Massively Underowned

Summary

Trade Ideas

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