Trade of The Week - MacroVoices #535
Speakers
Patrick Ceresna
— Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Erik Townsend
— Founder & Host, MacroVoices
Summary
This Trade of the Week segment of MacroVoices #535 presents the PAVE ETF as a long-term position for the industrial rebuild theme, hedged with a protective put. Patrick Ceresna and Erik Townsend also discuss oil's asymmetric upside, gold's consolidation, uranium's long-term outlook, copper strength, and bearish bond views.
- Patrick Ceresna introduces a long PAVE position with a protective put to express the industrial rebuild theme.
- Erik Townsend warns that oil prices could spike if Iran tensions escalate, but the market remains unconcerned.
- Patrick sees oil as an asymmetric long due to structural inventory depletion.
- Gold is in a four-month consolidation with distributive price action and macro headwinds.
- Uranium is long-term bullish but may face a seasonal soft patch until September.
- Copper shows strong momentum and may break to new highs.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is biased higher; no buying opportunity seen.
- The S&P 500 is overbought and vulnerable to a correction.
Trade Ideas
Long PAVE with protective put for industrial rebuild.
The policy regime is shifting from supporting financial assets to rebuilding physical capacity (infrastructure, supply chains, industrial production). To express this industrial rebuild theme, take a long position in the PAVE ETF (PAVE) and pair it with a protective put (July 17, 2026 $55 put) to manage short-term risk from an overbought market. The put provides a floor near the 50-day moving average, limiting downside to ~6% while allowing upside participation.
Oil asymmetric long with structural floor.
Oil has a structural floor due to depleted inventories and ongoing Iran tensions. Even without a peace deal, the depletion of hundreds of millions of barrels sets a new elevated floor, making the asymmetric trade attractive: limited downside but significant upside if supply constraints force demand destruction. I am looking for ways to play the oil upside.
Up Next
This Macro Voices video, published June 04, 2026, features Patrick Ceresna discussing PAVE, WTI. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Patrick Ceresna · Tickers: PAVE, WTI