Name: MacroVoices #535 Michael Every: NAFTA and NAPTHA – Warcraft & Fartcraft
Uploaded: 2026-06-04T17:13:55+00:00
Duration: 5835 s

Speakers

Rory Johnston — Founder, Commodity Context

Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices

Michael Every — Global Strategist, Rabobank

Erik Townsend — Founder & Host, MacroVoices

Summary

The episode covers the Iran crisis and its impact on oil markets, with Michael Every discussing the shift toward economic statecraft and a potential NAPTHA energy bloc. Rory Johnston provides a detailed analysis of crude oil logistics and argues for a significant oil price spike. Patrick Ceresna presents a trade of the week on the PAVE ETF for the industrial rebuild theme. Hosts also review gold, uranium, and copper markets.

Michael Every describes the Strait of Hormuz blockade as part of a broader US shift to economic statecraft, including stablecoins and swap lines.
Every outlines a hypothetical NAPTHA closed-loop energy bloc as a potential US strategy to isolate from the crisis.
Rory Johnston details the physical oil supply squeeze, noting 13-15 million bpd shut in and record inventory draws.
Johnston forecasts oil prices could spike to $150-200 if the strait remains closed through summer.
China's role is highlighted: massive import cuts yet hidden stockpiles may provide temporary buffer.
Patrick Ceresna's trade of the week is a long PAVE ETF position hedged with a put, betting on an industrial rebuild theme.
Erik Townsend expresses skepticism that Trump's 'time is on our side' view is correct, warning of eventual oil price shock.
Gold remains weak below moving averages; copper is at 52-week highs and most bullish commodity chart.

Trade Ideas

Rory Johnston Founder, Commodity Context 50:07

Oil prices to spike substantially higher

The Strait of Hormuz closure is creating a massive supply deficit of 13-15 million barrels per day that is being drawn down from inventories at the fastest pace on record. China's ability to cushion the market through hidden stockpiles is limited. If the strait remains closed through summer, oil prices will need to spike to $150 or even $200 to temporarily ration demand, as physical market fundamentals will eventually overwhelm any jawboning or speculative positioning.

Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 77:00

Infrastructure rebuild via PAVE ETF

Michael Every's thesis of a policy shift from supporting financial assets to rebuilding the physical economy (infrastructure, supply chains, industrial capacity) makes the PAVE ETF a direct beneficiary. To manage short-term market overbought risk, pair a long PAVE share position with a July 17 $55 put, establishing a long-term exposure with defined downside protection.

MacroVoices #535 Michael Every: NAFTA and NAPTHA – Warcraft & Fartcraft

Summary

Trade Ideas

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