Michael Every 4.5 6 ideas

Michael Every describes a scenario where a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz leads to crippling shortages of specific refined products (diesel, bunker, jet fuel) in Asia first, then globally, potentially halting trade. The energy market is already broken and segmented, with Asian spot prices far above benchmark futures. Physical shortages, not just high prices, become the dominant market driver in an extended crisis. The sector is at a critical inflection point (WATCH) where headlines and physical reality may diverge. The risk of exponential economic damage from physical shortages outweighs simple price appreciation. A swift diplomatic resolution and reopening of the Strait would rapidly normalize flows and collapse the risk premium, though physical damage to infrastructure could have longer-lasting effects.

Every states that the US administration is likely to push "US Dollar Stablecoins" to fund the government, predicting "trillions" in inflows. He notes the "Clarity Act" is the key legislation to watch. If the US government sanctions stablecoins as the preferred tool for global trade and T-bill funding, the regulated infrastructure providers (custodians and issuers) become systemically important. Coinbase (COIN) is the primary regulated US entity facilitating USDC and institutional crypto infrastructure. LONG the infrastructure of the "Stablecoin Arms Race." The "Clarity Act" fails to pass or the Fed launches a CBDC that competes directly with private stablecoins.

Every notes that freight companies are reporting a pickup in logistics *within* the US (internal shipping), rather than just imports from ports. This indicates the "re-industrialization" thesis is moving from theory to reality. If goods are being moved between US factories rather than just from Long Beach to warehouses, domestic logistics networks (Trucking and Rail) will see volume expansion independent of global trade health. LONG domestic US logistics and transport. A recession caused by high rates crushing consumer demand before the industrial base is fully built.

Every is skeptical that Gold can coexist as a primary reserve asset if the US successfully launches a dominant USD Stablecoin ecosystem. If the US digitizes the dollar and offers yield on stablecoins (backed by T-bills), the utility of Gold as a non-yielding store of value diminishes for US allies. Gold becomes the currency of the "opposing block" (China/Russia), limiting its liquidity in Western markets. NEUTRAL/WATCH. Patrick also notes Gold is in a consolidation phase after a violent correction. If the USD Stablecoin project fails or trust in the US government collapses, Gold would likely skyrocket.