MacroVoices #535 Michael Every: NAFTA and NAPTHA – Warcraft & Fartcraft

Summary

Michael Every discusses the Iran crisis as part of a broader shift toward economic statecraft, including energy blockades, swap lines, and stablecoins as geopolitical tools. Rory Johnston provides a granular update on crude oil flows, highlighting the massive supply disruption and China's mysterious inventory behavior. The hosts debate oil price implications and present a trade of the week focused on the industrial rebuild theme via the PAVE ETF.

• The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with only limited ship crossings and 13-15 million bpd of production shut in.
• Michael Every outlines a 'NAPTHA' scenario where the US forms a closed-loop energy bloc with allies.
• China's crude oil imports have dropped ~50%, while visible inventories haven't drawn down, puzzling analysts.
• President Trump's Labor Day tweet is interpreted as a sign the blockade will persist, increasing odds of a major oil price spike.
• The Fed under Kevin Warsh may shift toward supply-side support and economic statecraft, including stablecoin issuance.
• Gold has been weak as investors sell gold for dollars during the crisis, breaking the typical safe-haven correlation.
• Patrick Ceresna's trade of the week is a long position in the PAVE ETF hedged with a protective put.
• Uranium remains structurally bullish but is in a seasonal soft patch; copper is at 52-week highs with strong momentum.