Brent Johnson 5.0 3 ideas

States they own gold as a strategic allocation for long-term safety/security and that it will likely "go down and touch its 200-day moving average," presenting a buying opportunity. Gold is viewed as a barometer and a hedge against global uncertainty and currency debasement. A dip to a key technical level (~$4500) would offer a favorable tactical entry point to add to the core strategic position. WATCH for a potential dip to the 200-day MA to add exposure. The strategic long-term holding remains intact. The dip does not materialize, or a major crisis causes gold to gap higher before the target is reached.

States "95% of our equity exposure is US equity" and outlines four global scenarios: global collapse, global growth, US outperformance, or US recession with world doing well. He believes the US is preferable in three scenarios and the fourth is very low probability. US markets have the deepest liquidity, are best prepared to handle negative shocks, and have comparable/good growth potential. The US dollar's relative strength (Milkshake Theory) supports capital inflows. LONG US equities as the highest-probability, most robust exposure for a capital preservation and growth mandate, accepting potential underperformance in a low-probability scenario. The low-probability scenario (US recession while rest of world thrives) occurs.

Reiterates the Dollar Milkshake Theory, noting the DXY is ~10% higher since 2018/19, and believes "the United States will outperform the rest of the world" and capital flows will continue. A global sovereign debt crisis (or fear thereof) and relative economic/military stability will drive capital toward the safety and liquidity of the US dollar, strengthening it. This is a multi-year structural trend. LONG the US dollar as the primary beneficiary of global capital flight and relative strength, which underpins the attractiveness of US financial assets. A loss of confidence in US fiscal/monetary policy that disrupts the capital inflow dynamic.