MacroVoices #530 Daniel Lacalle: China and The Us Will Decide The Outcome of The Iran War

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 30, 2026 at 18:31  |  1:14:02  |  Macro Voices
Speakers
Erik Townsend — Founder & Host, MacroVoices
Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices

Summary

Erik Townsend and Daniel Lacalle discuss the Iran war's impact on energy markets, highlighting that the US and China can weather the crisis while Europe faces severe stress. They argue that persistent inflation, driven by money supply growth and energy disruptions, will persist. The hosts present actionable trades: long crude oil, short S&P 500, avoid gold near-term, and a pair trade long US financials vs short European financials.

  • Iran negotiations collapsed, Strait of Hormuz closure threatens global energy supply.
  • US and China are positioned as shock absorbers; Europe is highly vulnerable to energy shortages.
  • Money supply growth is soaring globally, contributing to persistent inflation.
  • Oil prices have spiked but the forward curve still implies elevated levels for years.
  • Gold has decoupled from geopolitical risk due to dollar strength and margin calls.
  • Erik Townsend is long crude oil and short S&P 500 via hedges; he reduced gold exposure.
  • Patrick Ceresna proposes a long/short trade in financials: long XLF, short EUFN.
  • UAE's exit from OPEC signals the end of spare capacity, increasing long-term oil price volatility.
Trade Ideas
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 44:00
Long US financials, short European financials.
European financials have materially outperformed US financials, but underlying macro stress in Europe will reverse this relative performance. The trade is long US financials (XLF) vs short European financials (EUFN) to capture the divergence.
XLF HIGH
Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 44:00
Long US financials, short European financials.
European financials have materially outperformed US financials, but underlying macro stress in Europe will reverse this relative performance. The trade is long US financials (XLF) vs short European financials (EUFN) to capture the divergence.
EUFN HIGH
Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices 50:40
SHORT S&P on coming oil shock.
The stock market is in denial about the coming oil shock, which will trigger a global recession-like selloff similar to COVID. Erik doubled down on his S&P 500 hedge position and will add more on bounces.
SPY HIGH
Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices 57:54
LONG crude oil as crisis continues.
The Iran crisis will continue with the Strait of Hormuz closed, leading to sustained upward pressure on crude oil prices. Erik bought the dip and expects further gains as physical shortages hit the market.
USO HIGH
Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices 64:01
AVOID gold; selloff likely ahead.
Gold will likely sell off further as the oil crunch forces the Fed to consider rate hikes, creating downside pressure. Erik sold more than half his gold position to reduce risk.
GOLD HIGH
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This Macro Voices video, published April 30, 2026, features Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend discussing XLF, EUFN, SPY, USO, GOLD. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend  · Tickers: XLF, EUFN, SPY, USO, GOLD