Name: MacroVoices #539 Rory Johnston: Hormuz Crisis, is it Really Over?
Uploaded: 2026-07-02T20:46:07+00:00
Duration: 3498 s

Speakers

Rory Johnston — Founder, Commodity Context

Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices

Masel Begnan — Market Strategist, BigPicture Trading

Summary

Rory Johnston analyzes the Hormuz crisis aftermath, a temporary crude surplus, and historically strong refined product crack spreads. The new Trading Desk segment features a Valero bull call spread, washed‑out GBP/USD positioning, a corn long continuation setup, and technical outlooks on gold and the dollar.

Rory Johnston details the surge of stranded crude out of Hormuz, record inbound tankers, and the lag in sustainable loadings.
China’s 5 mb/d import cut and global SPR releases prevented a price spike, pushing the crude market into prompt contango.
Refined products remain very tight; diesel and gasoline crack spreads are near all‑time highs due to refinery bottlenecks and reduced Russian exports.
Extreme speculative short positioning in crude sets up a potential $6–$10 bounce if China re‑enters the market or geopolitical risks reignite.
Patrick Ceresna’s Trade of the Week is a defined‑risk VLO bull call spread, playing refining momentum amidst elevated crack spreads.
Masel Begnan identifies GBP/USD as extremely washed out with squeeze potential and corn futures as a long continuation play with room in positioning.
Technical outlooks: U.S. Dollar holds a bullish breakout, gold tests $4,000 support, and equity markets face semiconductor weakness with possible rotation into healthcare.

Ideas

Rory Johnston Founder, Commodity Context 30:04

Crude oil near bottom, short squeeze likely.

Extreme speculative short positioning in crude oil, combined with expectations that China will eventually return as a buyer and the spot surplus is temporary, suggests crude oil is near a bottom and could see a sharp $6-$10 bounce from position normalization, with potential for $15-$20 if a catalyst spurs momentum.

Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 45:34

Valero benefits from strong refining margins.

Elevated crack spreads due to tight refined product markets and supply bottlenecks favor refiners; Valero is the strongest name in the space, breaking to a new 52-week high, and presents a defined-risk momentum play via a $270/$300 bull call spread.

Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 49:56

Dollar breakout holding, watch continuation.

The U.S. dollar has broken out of a 15-month range and is holding, suggesting a potential new bullish trend; watching for a successful retest of support and a pattern of dips being bought to confirm the trend.

Masel Begnan Market Strategist, BigPicture Trading 50:29

Pound positioning extreme, squeeze possible.

The British pound is extremely washed out with commercial hedgers at their most net long and large speculators at their most net short in a year, while the U.S. dollar is crowded long; this creates asymmetric fuel for a squeeze if price begins to confirm, though no technical trigger yet.

Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 52:29

Gold at 4000 support, watch bounce.

Gold is in a primary downtrend but trading at the psychological 4,000 level, which coincides with Fibonacci retracement zones from the two-year bull advance, resetting the asymmetry of being long; a logical place for bulls to hold, though no confirmation yet.

Masel Begnan Market Strategist, BigPicture Trading 53:37

Corn long continuation, momentum turning up.

Corn futures are setting up a long continuation pattern; large speculators are heavily long but small speculators are not yet all in, momentum is turning up with price reclaiming the 50-day moving average, and positioning still has room before becoming crowded.

MacroVoices #539 Rory Johnston: Hormuz Crisis, is it Really Over?

Summary

Ideas

Up Next