Name: MacroVoices #542 Luke Gromen: As The Conflict Turns
Uploaded: 2026-07-23T16:02:07+00:00
Duration: 3851 s

Speakers

Luke Gromen — Founder, Forest for the Trees

Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices

Miss Begnan

Summary

Luke Gromen explains why the prolonged Hormuz closure didn't spike oil, as China's EV shift and reserve drawdowns absorbed the supply shock. He predicts that escalating conflict and fiscal expansion will strain bond markets and favor gold, US electrical infrastructure, and Japanese industrials. Patrick Ceresna outlines a hedged GLD trade after gold's 30% correction and monitors S&P 500 vulnerability.

Strait of Hormuz closure lasted months; oil prices held down by China's shift to EVs and SPR drawdowns.
China demonstrated geopolitical leverage by cutting oil demand and offering alternative energy systems.
War escalation likely to persist, benefiting China strategically while straining Western bond markets.
Luke Gromen advocates owning gold as a long-term play amid war and fiscal pressures.
He also likes US electrical infrastructure equities (PAVE) and Japanese industrial equities for reshoring needs.
Patrick Ceresna details a hedged GLD trade using a risk corridor to capture upside after gold's 30% correction.
S&P 500 vulnerable with crowded positioning; a break of 7400 could trigger systematic selling.
COT data shows copper positioning reset and potential for a bullish breakout.

Ideas

Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 23:52

Sell bonds as war drives yields higher.

War is inflationary and will force Western governments to borrow heavily for defense while creditors turn into borrowers. This will push yields higher until some form of yield curve control becomes necessary. Therefore, sell bonds.

Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 24:41

Bitcoin will rally amid currency debasement.

In a scenario where global currencies weaken together under yield curve control, gold and Bitcoin will do really well. Bitcoin would rally alongside gold as a monetary debasement hedge.

Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 31:38

Buy gold as war and inflation persist.

Gold has corrected 30% over six months, clearing excess. Renewed geopolitical escalation and fiscal spending are bullish, but the short-term trend hasn't turned up yet. He proposes buying GLD shares while using a risk-collar options structure to protect against a possible final leg lower while capping upside at $415.

Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 34:31

Power grid investment cycle supports PAVE.

The US has barely added electrical capacity in 20 years, creating a bottleneck. Companies in electrical infrastructure are seeing years of open-field demand with lead times stretching, but public companies understate the outlook. He likes the sector and notes PAVE ETF as an example.

Luke Gromen Founder, Forest for the Trees 36:07

Japan industrials benefit from reshoring needs.

The US cannot reshore without Japan. Japan's industrial sector is still early in benefiting from this shift, with less hype than AI, and will perform well as the West builds out defense and infrastructure.

Patrick Ceresna Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices 51:04

S&P 7400 break could trigger sharp selloff.

Equity markets are vulnerable with large and small speculators crowded long. Systematic CTAs have rising flip points; a 150-200 point drop in the S&P 500 could trigger forced selling. The key level to watch is 7,400; a sustained break could lead to a correction toward 7,000.

Miss Begnan 61:03

Copper positioning reset, watch for breakout.

Copper's speculative positioning has reset from extreme highs to normal through time rather than a price crash, while physical fundamentals remain strong with falling Chinese inventories and rising import premiums. If speculators return gradually while price holds, it signals a healthy breakout.

MacroVoices #542 Luke Gromen: As The Conflict Turns

Summary

Ideas

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