MacroVoices #544 Viktor Shvets: How Markets Survive Disruption

Summary

Viktor Shvets discusses macro disruption under the new Fed, a disinflationary world with periodic inflationary spikes, the Iran war quagmire, elevated polarization, AI rolling bubbles, and China's dual strength and capital misallocation. Patrick Ceresna presents a robotics ETF trade and along with Michelle Begnan analyzes markets including gold, the dollar, crude oil, and a potential yen short squeeze.

• Viktor Shvets sees the Fed under Worsh as politicized but still independent, with high internal dissent injecting uncertainty.
• He describes a long-term disinflationary trend with inflationary spikes created by fiscal, trade, military, and immigration policies.
• The Iran war is framed as having no clear victory or exit, likely to drag on while periodically disrupting oil flows.
• Gold corrected during the Iran war as investors sought USD liquidity, but Shvets still considers it the ultimate safety asset.
• Polarization in the US has reached historic highs, driving extreme economic policies from both left and right.
• AI is described as a sequence of rolling bubbles from commodities to infrastructure to applications like robotics and biotech.
• Patrick Ceresna recommends buying the BOTZ ETF with a protective put to capture the next potential AI bubble in robotics.
• Post-game: gold's breakout with broad metals strength is highlighted; the yen's extreme short positioning sets up a possible short-squeeze after intervention.