Trade of The Week - MacroVoices #532

Summary

In this post-game segment of MacroVoices #532, hosts Patrick Ceresna and Erik Townsend discuss the Trade of the Week (a bull call spread on December 2027 SOFR futures betting on a more aggressive Fed easing cycle) and review equity, commodity, and bond markets. They highlight overbought semiconductors, bullish copper, cautious gold and uranium, and technical setups in oil amid the Hormuz crisis.

• Trade of the Week: bull call spread on December 2027 SOFR futures to position for Fed easing repricing.
• Erik Townsend holds S&P 500 put spreads as insurance against a potential energy-driven economic shock.
• Copper breaks out to all-time highs, with targets toward $7.00 and a decisively bullish outlook.
• Oil remains technically supported near its 50-day moving average; a breakout above $100 would be a bullish trigger.
• Uranium is super bullish long-term but near-term correction risk exists; buying opportunity expected.
• Gold is expected to recover in the second half of the year; near-term direction depends on China's resolution of the Hormuz crisis.
• Semiconductors are extremely overbought and overdue for mean reversion, which could trigger a broader market pullback.
• Bond yields continue to rise, pressing toward 2024-2025 highs, with no immediate reversal catalyst.