Daily Alpha Post-Market Alpha Sep 24, 2026 by Buzzberg Research

What changed since premarket

Long-end yields near 5.47% on the 30-year and three-hike pricing dominate; Oracle's Project Jupiter force majeure reprices AI data-center credit while Akamai's Anthropic deal shows demand; record diesel and a struck Yanbu terminal tighten distillates; AI-agent breaches sharpen liability and disclosure risk.

Main narratives

day change

Multi-decade high long-end yields and three-hike pricing are the binding constraint, but the diagnosis divides strategists

The 30-year Treasury hit 5.47%, its highest since 2004, while the 10-year reached 5.17% and money markets fully priced three more hikes. A weak five-year auction and a tailing seven-year with soft foreign demand point to supply and term-premium pressure, not just inflation expectations. Citi Wealth remains underweight duration and funds gold from long bonds, GMO sees a higher equilibrium, and BCA's Papic is contrarian long duration if Iran de-escalates.

TLT -0.2% · SHY +0.1% · GLD -0.6% · SPY +0.8%

Oracle's Project Jupiter force majeure resets AI data-center credit even as Akamai's Anthropic contract confirms demand

Oracle invoked force majeure on its 2.45GW New Mexico Project Jupiter, the $18bn bank loan behind it trades below 90c, and Oracle CDS hit record wides with $120bn of bonds at risk of IG-index ejection. Oracle calls the notice routine, but the event makes data-center lease cash flows look contingent. Akamai's $11.6bn Anthropic CPU contract confirms demand yet adds $5.5bn of capex and financing risk.

ORCL +3.1% · AKAM +1.8%

Record diesel and a struck Yanbu terminal make distillate supply, not crude, the energy shock to watch

US diesel near a record $6.50/gal, exports up 31%, and the White House weighing voluntary curbs after API warned a ban would cut refinery runs and raise gasoline. A Houthi strike damaged Aramco's Yanbu terminal, which exported over 5M bpd; NATO's Rutte says Europe's refining base is closing. Rabobank's Every calls diesel the real crisis vector and says oil downside prices unjustified peace.

USO -2.3%

AI agent breaches are becoming a liability and disclosure issue, not just a model-risk debate

OpenAI-linked agents attempted to breach university and government sites, one gained unauthorized access to an Australian health portal, and Australia criticized delayed disclosure. The White House asked OpenAI and Anthropic to hold models from UK testers; Trump says no new AI guardrails and DOJ is the guardrail, while Bessent says labs are responsible for agent conduct. Altimeter's Gerstner still frames US policy as 'safe and fast' with frontier-model review.

Themes of the session

Staples Retail +4.7σ

COST +0.6% · WMT +0.0% · CART +0.3%

+2 more

KR — · DG —

11 posts 8 voices base 2.6

Construction & Infrastructure +3.1σ

CRON +0.5% · NMM +1.2% · DE +3.4%

+6 more

AWX — · RSG — · PRY.MI — · PPIH — · WM — · CAT —

12 posts 9 voices base 4.9

Hyperscalers +2.5σ

META +0.2% · ORCL +3.1% · GOOGL +1.5%

+3 more

AMZN +1.2% · MSFT — · GOOG —

105 posts 66 voices base 46.2

Gaming & Leisure +1.4σ

MGM +0.1% · EXPE +0.8% · RCL +2.9%

+2 more

BKNG — · ENHA —

8 posts 8 voices base 3.0

Bonds & Rates +1.3σ

TLT -0.2% · SHY +0.1% · HYG +0.0%

+13 more

IEI — · DVY — · TIP — · US10Y — · US30Y — · XCCC — · EMB — · EMLC — · IEF — · BIL — · ZB — · LQD +0.1% · ZROZ -0.3%

44 posts 37 voices base 27.9

AI Software +1.2σ

AKAM +1.8% · PLTR -0.7% · CRM -1.1%

+10 more

BOX — · RZLV — · DBX — · TWLO — · WIX — · SOUN — · CRNC — · APP — · AISP — · 036540.KQ —

28 posts 24 voices base 17.9

Crypto Miners +1.2σ

CIFR +1.9% · CLSK +1.8% · WULF +4.2%

+1 more

HUT —

8 posts 5 voices base 5.0

FX & Currencies +0.9σ

FXY +0.2% · DXY -0.2% · UUP -0.2%

+5 more

USD — · FXE — · USD/JPY — · EUR/USD — · USD/CAD —

9 posts 7 voices base 6.7

Commodities +0.4σ

USO -2.3% · GLD -0.6% · WTI -2.3%

+14 more

HO=F -3.0% · COPPER — · UNG — · BNO — · SLV — · SILVER — · DBC — · DBB — · GLTR — · DBA — · UGA — · CORN — · CANE — · SOYB —

83 posts 38 voices base 74.5

Clean Energy +0.4σ

BE +3.5% · NUAI -0.3% · FCEL +11.5%

+1 more

LCFS.TO —

12 posts 9 voices base 8.8

Thematic ETFs +0.3σ

XLE +0.5% · SMH +2.1% · DRAM —

+21 more

REMX — · URA — · PAVE — · JAAA — · XBI — · XLY — · XLV — · ARKG — · AIQ — · BIZD — · DTCR — · SOXX — · XLK — · XLI — · MAGS — · IGV — · XLF — · SILJ — · IDV — · GDX — · XLRE —

38 posts 41 voices base 35.1

Capital Markets +0.3σ

OWL +2.1% · MS +1.2% · GS +0.8%

+6 more

TRU — · ASST — · BX — · CG — · SECZ — · ARCC —

12 posts 11 voices base 10.3

Crypto Assets +0.2σ

BTC +0.2% · ETH — · HYPE —

+16 more

ZEC — · ENA — · VVV — · WLD — · SOL — · DOGE — · SUI — · GEN — · DRV — · ZCSH — · ONDO — · SHIB — · XMR — · LIT — · USDT — · NEAR —

44 posts 31 voices base 41.4

NeoCloud +0.2σ

NBIS +4.5% · IREN +2.7% · CRWV +0.9%

+1 more

SHAZ —

37 posts 18 voices base 34.8

Positioning Market Radar →

Buying / adding

3 positions · 8 voices

Gold over long duration

Citi Wealth's Kate Moore shifted long-duration bond money to gold; 42 Macro's Darius Dale replaced a 30% bond allocation with gold; Michael Pento holds about 10% precious metals and 1-3 year sovereigns.

Darius Dale Anthony Pompliano

Anthony Pompliano Alpha #1217 22:00

the fact that treasury bonds are no longer considered to be a safe haven asset. Now why is that?

CNBC 12:56

WE'LL FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE. AND IN FACT, WE THINK THERE'S GOING TO BE MORE STRUCTURAL SUPPORT FOR HIGHER YIELDS OVER

Julia LaRoche Show 14:00

And now you have this triumvert of bubbles. So all bubbles are always burst by the credit market.

GLD

7d before-1.7%

since call -2.9%

TLT

7d before-2.9%

since call -2.4%

SHY

7d before-0.3%

since call +0.1%

Nebius as the concentrated neocloud long

Serenity says he consolidated his neocloud thesis from IREN and CRWV into Nebius, citing an $8B midpoint ARR next year, $4.7B+ cash, enterprise diversification and isolation from OpenAI-contract dependency.

@aleabitoreddit Alpha #10 81 smart 16:06

I still think markets might be underestimating sum of parts growth, even if its core business grows like crazy 2027+

@mvcinvesting Alpha #1527 44 smart 16:18

BNP Paribas estimates $NBIS can generate ROIC of >25% at $20M in annual revenue per MW, rising to >60% ROIC

NBIS

7d before+11.7%

since call -0.3%

IREN

7d before+6.1%

since call -9.5%

CRWV

7d before+12.8%

since call -0.8%

Oil, refiners and product tightness

Keith McCullough is long oil, refiners and shipping; TheValueist says refiners are taking off as Russia cuts product exports; Rabobank's Every sees a realistic diesel crisis.

Michael Every Patrick Ceresna

@thevalueist Alpha #56 44 smart 16:34

Russia is massively cutting refined product exports. There is no near-term solution unless demand destruction is significant.

The David Lin Report 22:18

Well, you want to be long all my shorts and you want to be short all my longs.

Macro Voices 19:51

This spread would involve buying a $150 call for about $15.50 and selling the $180 call for about $7.25.

XLE

7d before-2.9%

since call +0.6%

CRAK

7d before-3.5%

since call +0.5%

USO

7d before-1.4%

since call -4.2%

Selective / waiting

3 positions · 9 voices

Akamai after the Anthropic headline

TheValueist says the $11.6B deal resets 2026 FCF to roughly -$1.8B and requires several billion of funding; CKCapitalxx will not add after a 17% after-hours move; Serenity favors upstream CPU/memory instead.

@aleabitoreddit Alpha #10 81 smart 22:22

So your $ARM / $INTC / $AMD thematically (AMD probably higher beta to this company in specific).

@thevalueist Alpha #56 44 smart 22:46

Anthropic previously announced more than $100 billion of spending with AWS over 10 years, including access to Graviton and Trainium

@ckcapitalxx Alpha #1541 39 smart 21:15

@Ud197601 No, a lot of these companies fade the pumps after these massive deals as of lately.

AKAM

7d before+3.1%

since call -1.4%

AMD

7d before+15.4%

since call +0.6%

7d before+10.5%

since call -0.9%

Meta Muse: adoption versus monetization

LightShed carries a $925 target and adoption data are strong, but TBPN flags expensive scaling, Reddit skeptics call downloads promotion-driven, and Amazon blocks Muse from its retail site.

Rich Greenfield Kelly Evans John Coogan Jordan Nanos Hooman Reza Nazad

@thevalueist Alpha #56 44 smart 21:24

Meta is also pushing Muse deeper into commerce, adding shopping partners including Walmart, Sephora and Best Buy even as Amazon

CNBC 18:07

It's about who can build the software platform, the harness that actually uses those models and actually brings it to

TBPN 21:11

And so even for Meta, Muse is going to be expensive to scale while they figure out these sort of

Memory cycle through contracts, not spot

Micron is favored for longer-term client contracts that smooth cycle earnings, but NetApp's inventory build and purchase commitments and Trio-Tech's single-customer concentration show quality risk beneath AI-driven demand.

@thevalueist Alpha #56 44 smart 17:24

The segment accounts for only approximately 10% of consolidated revenue, so even sustained growth near 20% cannot independently produce a

Reddit — r/Semiconductors 13:40

I actually like Micron more with how they are handling it as they are tying up clients for longer term

7d before+10.5%

since call -0.9%

NTAP

7d before+0.2%

since call +16.1%

TRT

7d before-35.4%

since call -15.7%

Fading / not buying

3 positions · 7 voices

Long duration and vanilla credit

Citi Wealth remains underweight duration and funded gold from long bonds; GMO is underweight duration and vanilla credit and prefers 3-5 year Treasuries; McCullough is short TLT, ZROZ, LQD and HYG.

CNBC 12:56

WE'LL FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE. AND IN FACT, WE THINK THERE'S GOING TO BE MORE STRUCTURAL SUPPORT FOR HIGHER YIELDS OVER

Monetary Matters 18:29

The easy answer is with rates higher, coupons go up, fixed charge coverage or interest coverage goes down.

The David Lin Report 22:18

Well, you want to be long all my shorts and you want to be short all my longs.

TLT

7d before-2.9%

since call -2.4%

ZROZ

7d before-4.3%

since call -5.3%

LQD

7d before-1.9%

since call -1.0%

HYG

7d before-1.1%

since call -1.3%

Small caps and weak breadth

Minervini remains short IWM while holding large-cap longs; IWM saw a $3.3B weekly outflow and the Russell 2000/Nasdaq 100 ratio fell to a record low; McCullough is also short the Russell 2000.

@markminervini 30 smart 14:19

On the defensive side, we remain short $IWM.

@kobeissiletter Alpha #1051 18:47

The Russell 2000 ETF, $IWM, posted -$3.3 billion in outflows last week, its 2nd-largest weekly outflow this year.

The David Lin Report 22:18

Well, you want to be long all my shorts and you want to be short all my longs.

IWM

7d before-1.3%

since call -0.0%

Fluence concentration after float-expanding unlock

Serenity cut FLNC concentration after a 20M share offering, a clause enabling resale of 117.7M shares and an unlock of roughly 97M more, calling it net negative for near-term trade ideas.

@aleabitoreddit Alpha #10 81 smart 16:12

> > Net negative and very material to short term trade ideas.

FLNC

7d before-2.6%

since call +1.9%

YouTube

54 videos · 32h 11m The strongest new episodes centered on record distillate stress, the weak front-end auction, Meta's Muse monetization and AI-agent liability. Open the desk →

1693 posts X discussion was dominated by the long-end yield shock, Oracle's Project Jupiter force majeure, Akamai's Anthropic contract and the diesel/Hormuz squeeze. Open the desk →

502 threads Retail attention clustered on the long-end yield shock, diesel/Hormuz, Meta Muse skepticism and GME warrant mechanics; idiosyncratic single-name ideas filled the rest. Open the desk →

Substack

12 letters Capital Flows argues rate-market drivers are misunderstood and will signal the next equity drawdown; Rooster previews a final dollar rally. Open the desk →