Long-end yields at 2004 highs, a live US diesel export-ban debate, record AI hardware order data, and Meta's Muse retail buildout dominate. Watch further Fed repricing, the diesel export decision, Micron's Sep 30 report, and retailer conversion.
The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.44%, its highest since 2004, and the 10-year reached 5.085% after a strong PMI. Swaps pricing for an October Fed hike rose from about 60% to 80%. Northern Trust's Tannenbaum said the selloff has room to go because AI capital demand lifts the neutral rate, while Bloomberg's Cudmore still expects October to be good for stocks.
US diesel averaged $6.52 a gallon, up 76% year over year, with refineries running near full. Energy Secretary Wright told oil executives to brace for possible diesel export curbs. API's Sommers said a ban would fill domestic tanks, force refiners to cut runs and raise gasoline and jet fuel prices. Senator Smith called a ban at best a short-term fix.
TSMC is reported to plan 3-6% wafer price increases from January 2027, while Samsung added hybrid bonding to its DRAM roadmap and Winbond sees NOR flash ASP hikes. Taiwan's August export orders hit a record, with leading-edge capacity tight. Against that, Samsung and SK Hynix refused a five-year power prepay, and Phison's CEO warns rising memory prices could weaken PC and smartphone sales.
Meta launched Muse-branded hardware, including $349 camera-free Ray-Ban Audio glasses and $1,299 VR glasses undercutting Apple's Vision Pro. Meta signed Walmart, Best Buy, Gap, Sephora and Wayfair into Muse shopping, and Zuckerberg expects to make money from a small transaction fee. Amazon has blocked Muse from purchasing on its site. Jukan argues Meta's distribution, not model quality, explains Muse's viral start.
Disclosed purchase of Unity Oct 16 46 calls at $1.90, prompted by a $7M call sweep mid-afternoon; he says he sees no edge besides a pretty chart.
The Substack manager initiated DYL in its Ninja portfolio and bought LYC back after an earlier stop-out, keeping conviction through adverse price action.
Says he bought a large Robinhood position at $8-9, now over $100, and that a significant percentage of his gains came from public-market investing.
Says the right defensive move is selling stocks into short-term Treasuries of less than a year rather than buying puts or running long/short, and warns against averaging down into every position.
Sold the 31 LEAPS put on DRAM so he profits as long as it stays above 31, and is now looking to add 2028+ calls.
Sees oil $70-75 to $120-130 absent escalation, calls Tourmaline his top pick at 6.1x cash flow with 11.8 years of proven reserves, and says oily names and service stocks are now expensive.
Calls CoreWeave his kind of short: levered to the AI data-center buildout, burning close to $20B of free cash flow a year and funding at 10-14% debt costs.
Says universally bullish replies make BKNG a decent short-term sentiment short while still calling it cheap long term and expecting agent disruption a decade away.
Short Solana and ETH expecting a move back to 81K Bitcoin with 88K invalidation, and owns no Bitcoin, preferring utility and privacy altcoins.