EMLC VanEck J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions
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05:09
Sep 03
Sep 03
Emerging market bonds resilient to selloff.
Emerging market funds have bucked the global bond selloff because high-yield EM currency carry funded by dollars has produced steady positive returns, EM governments have contained fiscal deficits, and supply is less crowded than developed sovereigns.
HIGH
18:04
Sep 02
Sep 02
Own short duration and EM bonds.
The fixed-income side of the portfolio uses short-duration bonds and 2-year notes plus local-currency emerging market bonds to generate cash flow and to capture areas with flat yield curves and high real interest rates.
MED
16:30
Sep 02
Sep 02
El Nino hurts emerging markets most.
El Nino is not primarily a US inflation story but will create severe droughts and floods in Australia, Brazil, the Mediterranean and parts of Asia. Emerging markets are almost certain to face more inflation and worse economic outcomes, making the bigger trade an emerging market currency and debt trade rather than commodities.
MED
07:02
Sep 01
Sep 01
Medium-term risk for EM local currency
While EM local currency has outperformed US Treasuries this year, Citi is worried medium to long term because the global fight for capital is intensifying, the global cost of capital is rising with Japan's 10-year at 3% and other DM yields higher; this may pressure EM local currency over time despite short-term technical stabilization.
MED
10:50
Aug 17
Aug 17
Dollar weakens; EM currencies outperform.
Soft US data including retail sales and the University of Michigan survey is causing doubts over how far the Fed can hike, pressuring the dollar. At the same time, other central banks may act more, making emerging market and Asian currencies more attractive; EM currencies have risen for seven straight weeks and the dollar can continue to weaken.
HIGH
07:40
Aug 17
Aug 17
Emerging market currencies rally on dollar weakness.
Emerging markets are having a particularly good run, rising for about seven straight weeks on a total return basis as the dollar weakens and rest-of-world central bank action makes those currencies more appealing.
MED
03:00
Aug 04
Aug 04
EM equities and currencies to outperform
The dollar is poised to depreciate over the next several years. Emerging market equities trade at 10x earnings (half the S&P 500), are under-owned, and offer diversified growth. EM currencies should also appreciate as the dollar weakens.
MED
06:21
Jul 14
Jul 14
EM local bonds offer high real yields
Emerging-market local-currency bonds offer high real yields, stability, orthodox central banks, lower debt than developed markets, and higher growth expectations, making them a long-term holding.
MED
11:10
Jul 13
Jul 13
Long emerging market currencies for carry
In a murky currency market with the dollar staying strong, emerging market currencies offer attractive carry that justifies a long position, especially against low yielders.
MED
06:51
Jun 30
Jun 30
Local bonds offer high real yields
Inflation risk is underestimated for income investors. To protect purchasing power, investors should seek local-currency bonds in countries that have actually hiked rates, such as Brazil, South Africa and Australia, where curves are well shaped and real yields are attractive.
MED
09:11
Jun 17
Jun 17
Short USD, long EM currencies
The US dollar is negative long-term because interest rate differentials will narrow, US fiscal dynamics are poor, policy uncertainty and tariffs persist, and broad positive risk sentiment will lift emerging markets. The dollar is overpriced, and short positions should be focused on emerging market currencies, which benefit in a global growth and risk-on environment.
HIGH
12:16
Mar 30
Mar 30
The speaker explicitly states that the flight to the USD as a safe haven "leaves high yield in currencies, those of emerging market space, particularly very vulnerable." During risk-off episodes driven by geopolitical fear, capital flees higher-risk assets. High-yielding EM currencies are classic risk assets. As the USD strengthens due to safe-haven flows, EM currencies face direct downward pressure from both capital outflows and USD appreciation. The identified vulnerability implies a high probability of underperformance and depreciation for EM currencies as long as the current risk-off, USD-positive environment persists. A swift, peaceful resolution to the conflict that calms markets and reignites risk appetite, prompting a reversal of flows back into EM assets.
16:22
Mar 27
Mar 27
Lupin said Brazilian real rates are still very high (nominal rates at 15%), the central bank is anchored, and it has room to cut, making local currency bonds attractive, especially compared to other EMs. Brazil is a commodity exporter sheltered from Middle East shocks, with high real rates providing carry and potential for easing cycles, supported by credible monetary policy. LONG due to high yields, strong fundamentals, and relative safety in the current geopolitical environment. Central bank fails to anchor inflation, geopolitical spillovers affect all EM, or domestic political issues arise.
22:21
Mar 17
Mar 17
EM local bonds were one of the best fixed-income sectors last year, have corrected ~5% due to the Iran war, but fundamentals remain strong (high policy rates, falling inflation, prudent fiscal policy). The sell-off is a temporary repricing. High local rates provide room for central banks to cut, and some economies are leveraged to the commodity cycle. The recent drawdown presents a buying opportunity for a sector with attractive yield and fundamental strength. A prolonged war causing sustained risk-off sentiment or a significant strengthening of the US dollar.
18:09
Feb 06
Feb 06
He notes that "Emerging market bonds... local currency" are attractive because "the US dollar is in a bear market." If the USD weakens (bear market), unhedged local currency bonds gain value in dollar terms while offering higher yields than developed market debt. Long Emerging Market Local Currency Bonds. A sudden spike in the USD (flight to safety) would crush local currency returns.
About EMLC Analyst Coverage
Buzzberg tracks EMLC (VanEck J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF) across 4 sources. 12 bullish vs 1 bearish calls from 14 analysts. Sentiment: predominantly bullish (73%). 15 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days: 2 bullish, 2 watch. Latest voices: Shuli Ren, David Rosenberg, Marvin Barth.