David Rosenberg

Rate hike expectations are overpriced in the front end of the US curve. The Fed will make its next move a cut, not a hike, as the economy weakens in the second half of the year and inflation surprises to the downside. The two-year note yield surged 60-70bp since the war and will revert lower.

Gold is in a secular bull market driven by central bank buying as they diversify reserves away from the dollar. Supply is limited (~1-1.5% annual growth) while demand is rising, and mean reversion of gold's share in FX reserves from 30% toward historical 70% supports a price target of $6,000 and beyond.

Long-term U.S. Treasuries are attractive because the real yield (2.7%) matches the equity market's real yield, but bonds offer certainty of payment and principal, making them a better risk-adjusted choice. Recession risks are high and inflation will likely decline, providing a cushion for bonds.

Explicitly mentions liking "European aerospace defense" as a "secular trend that is not going away anytime soon." Geopolitical instability creates a floor for defense spending. European contractors (Airbus, BAE Systems) are the direct beneficiaries of increased EU military budgets, independent of US election volatility. Long European Defense majors (using US ADRs). Regulatory caps on defense profits or a sudden geopolitical de-escalation.

Explicitly mentions liking "European aerospace defense" as a "secular trend that is not going away anytime soon." Geopolitical instability creates a floor for defense spending. European contractors (Airbus, BAE Systems) are the direct beneficiaries of increased EU military budgets, independent of US election volatility. Long European Defense majors (using US ADRs). Regulatory caps on defense profits or a sudden geopolitical de-escalation.

He notes that "Emerging market bonds... local currency" are attractive because "the US dollar is in a bear market." If the USD weakens (bear market), unhedged local currency bonds gain value in dollar terms while offering higher yields than developed market debt. Long Emerging Market Local Currency Bonds. A sudden spike in the USD (flight to safety) would crush local currency returns.

Rosenberg states, "I still like Asian equities... they still trade at much more compelling valuations," and specifically highlights that "India looks very attractive." As the US market faces valuation compression (mean reversion), capital will seek growth at reasonable prices. India offers the demographic and structural growth story without the extreme valuation premium of the S&P 500. Long exposure to India as a valuation hedge against US overvaluation. Global risk-off sentiment often drags down Emerging Markets regardless of idiosyncratic strength.

Rosenberg states, "I still like Asian equities... they still trade at much more compelling valuations," and specifically highlights that "India looks very attractive." As the US market faces valuation compression (mean reversion), capital will seek growth at reasonable prices. India offers the demographic and structural growth story without the extreme valuation premium of the S&P 500. Long exposure to India as a valuation hedge against US overvaluation. Global risk-off sentiment often drags down Emerging Markets regardless of idiosyncratic strength.