EM local bonds were one of the best fixed-income sectors last year, have corrected ~5% due to the Iran war, but fundamentals remain strong (high policy rates, falling inflation, prudent fiscal policy). The sell-off is a temporary repricing. High local rates provide room for central banks to cut, and some economies are leveraged to the commodity cycle. The recent drawdown presents a buying opportunity for a sector with attractive yield and fundamental strength. A prolonged war causing sustained risk-off sentiment or a significant strengthening of the US dollar.
EM local bonds were one of the best fixed-income sectors last year, have corrected ~5% due to the Iran war, but fundamentals remain strong (high policy rates, falling inflation, prudent fiscal policy). The sell-off is a temporary repricing. High local rates provide room for central banks to cut, and some economies are leveraged to the commodity cycle. The recent drawdown presents a buying opportunity for a sector with attractive yield and fundamental strength. A prolonged war causing sustained risk-off sentiment or a significant strengthening of the US dollar.
"The 10 year yield below 4%... dipping below that is pretty significant." "We've been looking at adding a bit more duration." Breaking the 4% psychological anchor suggests the market is pricing in a slowdown or aggressive Fed cuts. Momentum is now with bond bulls. LONG TLT / US TREASURIES. Inflation resurgence (sticky CPI/PPI) forcing yields back up.
"The 10 year yield below 4%... dipping below that is pretty significant." "We've been looking at adding a bit more duration." Breaking the 4% psychological anchor suggests the market is pricing in a slowdown or aggressive Fed cuts. Momentum is now with bond bulls. LONG TLT / US TREASURIES. Inflation resurgence (sticky CPI/PPI) forcing yields back up.