Brazilian stocks had their best day since 2020 on Bolsonaro's first-round lead. Jim Bianco turned bullish on Treasuries while BMO waits for a 6% 30-year. Meta and Microsoft reportedly cut internal Claude use, and the euro hit a 17-month low on French political and fiscal concerns.
Brazilian stocks had their best day since 2020 after Flávio Bolsonaro took a surprise first-round lead over Lula, and EWZ rose about 13% to a six-year high as the real strengthened. Bloomberg notes Bolsonaro has not detailed a fiscal plan and the first-round gap is only about two points. Market Makers panelists stress that the runoff remains undecided; it is set for Oct. 25.
Mohamed El-Erian notes the 10-year at 5.30% despite cooling data, which he ties to surging long-end issuance, and Bloomberg reports 30-year muni yields at their highest since at least 2011. Jim Bianco turned bullish on Treasuries for the first time in six years. BMO's Earl Davis expects the 30-year to cross 6%, which he expects to trigger coordinated Fed and Treasury buying, and would add 10-year exposure only then.
The Information reports Microsoft cut internal Claude spending by over a third and Meta's Claude users fell to 30,000 from 60,000 as Meta pushed its internal tools. bubbleboi says Anthropic's ARR numbers have not looked good in recent months. Nvidia, by contrast, says Anthropic has contracted 2.6GW of its hardware through 2028, and banks launched a record $60 billion Broadcom and Anthropic chip deal.
The euro hit a 17-month low on French political and fiscal concerns, and ces921 notes French OAT-Bund spreads at 2011-era levels. TD Securities' Jayati Bharadwaj expects near-term euro underperformance and says the ECB would first halt quantitative tightening, with the TPI only if France qualifies. Max Kettner warns on Bloomberg Surveillance that French bonds risk further spread widening, and Spain has called a snap election.
moodywriter13 says he is buying TOI at these levels, arguing AI fear has mispriced vertical-market software such as CSU and TOI, where he sees high uncertainty but low underlying risk.
Mark Skousen told The David Lin Report he added AI cybersecurity names PANW and CRWD while staying invested in AI-related stocks.
TheValueist says he sized up an initial CLMT position after following another analyst's work, as call volume ran 1.9x expected ahead of November earnings.
BMO's Earl Davis calls 10-year Treasuries attractively valued but will add only after the 30-year breaches 6%, and Luke Gromen would not buy duration until effective deficit risks are priced in.
babyfolio says Cerebras checks every box except valuation and is still deciding what he would pay, ahead of an interview with management.
Gaetano is waiting for a dip to buy PENG, and Temple 8 Research is bullish long term but doubts it holds above $60 in the short term.
TD Securities' Jayati Bharadwaj expects near-term euro underperformance into October's French catalysts, and Elsa Lignos told Bloomberg French fiscal and ECB risks keep pressure on the currency.
Martin Shkreli calls RXRX a good short and urges shorting TWST, DNA and other AI drug-development plays, arguing that expensive IND-enabling tox work is where those stories get tested.
Thomas Braziel's playbook shorts overvalued software-as-a-service priced for durable growth that AI could undermine, and fades AI priced as though every company will win.