Daily Alpha · Substack
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Substack's main read was a Peter Schiff piece on QTR's Fringe Finance arguing the jobs report is weaker than its headline; Gaetano recapped optical and physical-AI stocks, and SemiAnalysis found Anthropic's subscriptions offer more value than OpenAI's.
The Fed is Going to Ignore Another Weak Jobs Report
The article argues the September jobs report was much weaker than the headline 29k payroll gain suggests, because prior months were revised lower and the household survey's YTD loss of 840k reveals a historically weak labor market. It contends this weakness will eventually constrain the Fed, risking rapid cuts that could damage Fed credibility and strain Treasury finances through higher borrowing costs. • September headline payrolls rose only 29k, after August's initially reported 162k gain was revised down to 133k. • The household survey added 406k in September and 569k in August, but its year-to-date reading is a loss of 840k, versus the headline survey's +612k gain. • Excluding Covid, the household survey's YTD loss makes this the worst year for jobs since at least 2010, and the two surveys are moving in opposite directions for the only time. • BLS birth/death assumptions showed an…
Source →What Happened This Past Week. And What’s To Come.
Gaetano's weekly recap argues that optical and Physical AI stocks remain in strong uptrends, driven by transceiver restrictions and AI hardware demand, with LITE as his largest position and several Physical AI holdings breaking out. He is watching macro confirmation from QQQ, SOXX, and the 10Y, while planning to scale out of P after a 100% gain and waiting for a dip in PENG. • LITE, the author's largest position, hit ~$1120 and is retreating; he cites the CEO's bullishness on the duration of the supply-demand gap. • SMTC broke the $200 level after the author says he has been 'pushing this one hard' for months. • P reached a 100% gain since being pitched in April, exceeding the author's 12-month bull case, prompting him to scale out. • PENG earnings are due tomorrow; the author hopes for a dip to enter at his thesis price and expects a strong print. • Chinese transceiver restrictions…
+6 more
ON +5.3% · NXPI +4.3% · VPG +3.7% · INOD +4.0% · AAOI +2.9% · COHU +2.6%Anthropic Subscriptions Offer 5x+ More Value Than OpenAI
Anthropic Subscriptions Offer 5x+ More Value Than OpenAI Limit testing every AI subscription plan from Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta, SpaceXAI, MiniMax, Moonshot, Z.ai, Cursor, and Cognition Limit testing every AI subscription plan from Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta, SpaceXSI, MiniMax, Moonshot, Z.ai, Cursor, and Cognition Subscription plans are still the primary way consumers and small businesses pay for AI. These plans are highly subsidized—as we previously explained in June—but can still make economic
Source →