Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
X spent the day on AAOI finishing its share sales and on reports that Meta and Microsoft are cutting Claude use; bubbleboi says he is heavily long substrates.
Themes on this desk
AAOI's last ATM
Serenity, Ren, KawzInvests and Michael Sikand read the completed $600 million program, at about $105 a share, as the end of the overhang that kept AAOI behind other optics names.
Claude cutbacks
The Information's report that Meta and Microsoft are weaning staff off Claude drew readings ranging from IPO gamesmanship to backlog risk for hyperscalers.
HBM4 pricing
A report that Samsung is seeking about 3x HBM3E prices for HBM4 kept memory bulls engaged even as memory shares fell while the indexes rose.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →More probable: The high frequency trading and cyber wars of 2027 fought via low latency SRAM chips, whether Groq 3 LPX or CS-4, in…
…disaggregated setups with Rubin. Jane Street reportedly paying $200 million per mw - $200b per gigawatt - is likely the beginning, not the end. > Sholto Douglas (@_sholtodouglas) > the high frequency personal agent wars of 2027, fought via low latency chips and rack placement next to the servers hosting Resy and SF tennis court systems
More probable: The high frequency trading and cyber wars of 2027 fought via low latency SRAM chips, whether Groq 3Source →
So… according to UBS, Broadcom hasn’t lost TPU v9, and will take the lion’s share of v10?
That’s the exact opposite of the rumors we’ve been hearing so far. > Dr Vinnie Boombatz (@halfblindmonkey) > $AVGO strong positive read-through from UBS TPU checks: > > UBS says $AVGO remains deeply engaged beyond v8i, with a new 3nm multi-chip design expected to drive most 2028 volume, followed by a 2nm v10 that could take the lion’s share of Google TPU volume in 2029. > v10 seen using up to 16 dies, AVGO 3.5D packaging and 448G SerDes. > > Pretty direct pushback on the “AVGO loses $GOOGL after v8” bear case.
So… according to UBS, Broadcom hasn’t lost TPU v9, and will take the lion’s share of v10?Source →
$AAOI is... finally... done... With their $600m ATM program, turns out it's ~$105.36 average.
I do think AOI outperforms $LITE, as long as they stop filing these ATM programs. Just due to their sheer magnitude of ramp with $471m/month transceiver revenue + 400K/month ELSFP coming up. > Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) > $AAOI has finished a $500m ATM In April.. $600m ATM in June. Then filed another $600m in August. > > It's out of my control if management wants to abuse this trash repeated ATM structure. Instead following $AXTI like LTA prepayments and using that to fund buildout. > > Or taking private placements like $NVDA + Nebius for $2B and using that to fund buildout. > > Or convertible notes at 40% premiums. > > It's really hard for the stock to break out of $100 or $150 or $200 if there's $600M of selling pressure at those levels (and maybe expectations of future ATMs). > > I had the same criticism with $IREN with their $6B ATM, which is why it's been rangebound for half a…
$AAOI is... finally... done... With their $600m ATM program, turns out it's ~$105.36 average.Source →
I’m balls long ABG substrates.
> Jukan (@jukan05) > TrendForce: > > System-level testing and validation issues persist on the Rubin platform, with volumes expected to ramp gradually from 4Q26 or 1Q27. > > DRAM > Suppliers’ early-stage discussions on 4Q26 contract pricing point to meaningful price increases, suggesting strengthening demand momentum, particularly from US CSPs. > > NAND (Enterprise SSDs) > The DRAM shortage is constraining some NAND suppliers’ ability to support enterprise SSD solutions. As a result, enterprise SSDs are expected to remain undersupplied through 2026. > > HDD > Even though Toshiba announced a new production line expansion, it will take at least 12 to 24 months to come online. Lead times are therefore unlikely to improve before late 2027 at the earliest. > > ABF Substrates > ABF substrate capacity is not coming online fast enough to keep up with the sharp rise in demand. The supply-demand…
I’m balls long ABG substrates. > Jukan (@jukan05) > TrendForce:Source →
Memory vendors are aiming for 50% revenue/bit coverage from enforceable long-term agreements, which is unheard of.
Between Micron and SanDisk $240B+ locked through CY30. Micron’s signed SCAs cover over 35% of expected revenue through 2030, with a target of 50%. SanDisk's RPO of $91B at 80% GM means $72B of gross profit, which is higher than its cumulative gross profit across more than three decades.
Memory vendors are aiming for 50% revenue/bit coverage from enforceable long-term agreements, which is unheard of.Source →