Daily Alpha · YouTube
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Who was talking 48 videos · 14 channels
Long-end yields
1 video · 5mBMO's Earl Davis expects the 30-year to cross 6% and trigger Fed-Treasury buying, while Bloomberg guests call long munis unusually cheap at their highest yields since at least 2011.
BMO's Davis Says 30-Year Treasury Yields Will Hit 6%
BMO fixed income strategist Earl Davis argues that 30-year Treasury yields crossing 6% is inevitable and could happen in October, given a global rate selloff and elevated volatility. He expects that level to trigger coordinated Fed and Treasury bond buying, similar to QE, which could reverse the yield move for six to twelve months. Although he views 10-year Treasuries as attractively valued, he is not yet a buyer and would add once the 30-year breaches 6%. He also warns that intervention could weaken the dollar and heighten inflation risks, while solid US growth may attract global capital. Long-end Treasury yields are likely to reach 6%, forcing Fed-Treasury intervention that could reverse the bond selloff for six to twelve months, though near-term fixed income caution remains warranted.
Brazil repricing
1 video · 1h 40mMarket Makers and Fernando Ulrich covered the rally in Brazilian stocks, the real and local rates, while stressing runoff and governability risks.
ELEIÇÕES 2026: BOLSA, DÓLAR E JUROS APÓS O RESULTADO DO 1º TURNO | Risco Brasil #59
The episode reviews the first round of Brazil's 2026 presidential election, where the opposition candidate finished ahead and right-leaning parties gained heavily in Congress. Markets reacted with a sharp rally in Brazilian equities, a weaker dollar, and lower local rates, prompting a major bank to upgrade Brazil. The discussion frames the vote as a rejection of the incumbent government and a signal for reform, while stressing that the second round remains undecided and execution risk is high. A rightward political shift after the first round has improved the odds of a market-friendly Brazilian government and triggered a rapid repricing of Brazilian assets, but the second round and reform follow-through remain key uncertainties.
Ep. 035 - Tech DD’s, Performance Projections, Supply Chain, Investment Thesis (Consulting)
This episode explains SemiAnalysis's consulting business, which provides custom technical, commercial, and strategic diligence for investors and AI infrastructure industry participants. It focuses on neocloud due diligence, inference simulation, product and go-to-market strategy, and the role of service-level agreements and insurance in financing GPU cloud buildouts. The discussion argues that as capital and new operator types enter AI infrastructure, specialized diligence around contracts, performance, supply chains, and risk becomes more important. It also describes how consulting projects can evolve into repeatable research products and models. Growing institutional investment and new entrant activity in AI infrastructure are making technical, commercial, and contractual diligence around neoclouds, SLAs, and supply chains a prerequisite for funding and risk management.
Your Portfolio Is One Big AI Bet — The Diversification Illusion
In a Wealthion interview, Rupert Mitchell argues that many supposedly diversified index portfolios are actually concentrated bets on AI, semiconductors, and a handful of mega-cap US stocks. He views US equities as historically expensive, doubts that hyperscaler AI capex will justify its cost of capital, and prefers equal-weight S&P exposure over Nasdaq-100, non-US equities, shorter Treasuries, gold, energy, and select commodities. The discussion covers bond-market signals, gold's tactical weakness, China's influence on crude pricing, AI disruption in financials, and a 20-year portfolio construction framework. US index investing may now offer a false sense of diversification because AI and semiconductor exposure dominate global benchmarks, while US valuations and AI capex assumptions look stretched; investors should consider rotating toward equal-weight, non-US, energy, gold, and…
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GLD -0.5% · BNO -1.7% · XLE +0.0% · COPPER +0.2% · GLNCY -1.2% · CTAS +1.8%Gas Prices May Cause Consumers to Be 'Edgy,' Kaiser Says
Citi's head of US equity trading strategy argues that structurally persistent volatility-selling flows from retail structured products, buffered and leveraged ETFs, and zero-DTE options have become a durable stabilizer for index-level pricing, while dispersion underneath the surface has been severe. He leans constructive on equities for the next year or so, anchored in a committed AI capital-expenditure cycle and earnings growth running roughly double the historical trend, but flags an eventual late-1990s-style payback once capex growth decelerates. Sector rotation has punished utilities, financials and consumer names for reasons that are largely rate-, politics- and gasoline-driven rather than fundamental, and he expects management teams to stay on-message during the coming earnings season. Equity upside over the next 12-24 months rests on committed AI infrastructure spending flowing…