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Outright bearish on global stocks

Mark Cudmore is "very bearish" on global stocks, arguing fundamentals are worse than a week ago due to more energy infrastructure damage and continued Strait closure, yet markets are trading higher. He believes the market is mistakenly focused on superficial headline trading and "jawboning" while ignoring a clear and worsening stagflationary shock from the ongoing supply disruption. The disconnect between price action and deteriorating fundamentals presents a downside risk. An authentic and swift de-escalation that resolves the physical supply blockade quickly.

1. FACT: The speaker explicitly states that global stock markets are collapsing at a fast pace and expects "greater damage we're going to see in stock markets globally over the next coming weeks." 2. BRIDGE: The perceived resilience in US markets is breeding complacency, masking the severe negative wealth impact occurring globally (with the MSCI All Country World Index having its worst month in 3.5 years). As this reality sets in and the wealth effect dampens consumption, broad global equity indices will face further downward pressure. 3. VERDICT: SHORT 4. KEY RISK: A sudden resolution to the underlying geopolitical conflict or a coordinated dovish pivot by central banks could spark a massive global relief rally.

1. THE FACT: The Global Earnings Revision Index tracked by Citi has moved back into positive territory (on a 3-month moving average basis) after a long slump. 2. THE BRIDGE: Positive earnings revisions are a strong bullish indicator for equity markets, suggesting improving corporate fundamentals and potential for upward price movements. 3. THE VERDICT: Long global equities due to positive shift in global earnings revisions.