Mark Cudmore 1.8 44 ideas
Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist
After 1 day
47%winrate
-0.6% avg
7W / 8L · 15/16 ideas
After 1 week
33%winrate
-1.9% avg
5W / 10L · 15/16 ideas
After 1 month
N/A
6/15 min ideas
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
By sector
ETF
32 ideas
-1.7%
Commodity
8 ideas
currency
3 ideas
+9.5%
Stock
1 ideas
Top tickers (by frequency)
GOLD
6 ideas
—
—
SPY
5 ideas
—
—
UUP
3 ideas
100% W
+1.3%
JPY
2 ideas
100% W
+11.3%
GLD
2 ideas
100% W
+9.7%
Best and worst calls
Best calls
USO LONG
+44.3%
"I think that the Strait of Hormuz still does matter to some extent... And therefore I still think we've got a higher en...
Mar 05
DBC LONG
+17.6%
"I think Latin America still very interesting... Brazil still has the commodities that the world needs." The "incredible...
Feb 25
JPY SHORT
+12.1%
The BOJ is normalizing policy very slowly ("gradually"). Japan remains a low-growth economy with a massive debt load and...
Feb 26
Worst calls
EWY LONG
-18.7%
Global fiscal stimulus is high, and monetary policy is easing. However, US equities are expensive relative to the rest o...
Feb 25
ACWX LONG
-11.4%
"We're in a multiyear trend of US underperformance after a 14 year trend of U.S. outperformance... Many stocks in the wo...
Feb 25
VXUS LONG
-11.3%
"We're in a multiyear trend of US underperformance after a 14 year trend of U.S. outperformance... Many stocks in the wo...
Feb 25
AI stocks attractive due to cheaper multiples.
The AI theme is coming back with cheaper multiples than two months ago, and market euphoria is driving gains, making AI-related stocks attractive.
Executive Editor,...
AI theme is re-dominating market focus.
The AI theme is beginning to dominate the market again, and we might be moving back to a world where the focus is on trading that theme, its winners and losers. The speaker is increasingly leaning towards this camp.
Executive Editor,...
Stocks likely higher on geopolitical optimism.
Optimism from ongoing US-Iran negotiations and the perceived strategic move of the US naval blockade supports positive momentum in stocks, with the natural direction for equities to trade higher in the short term.
Executive Editor,...
Stagflation risks pressure Asia and long yields.
Longer-term stagflation risks from supply chain problems due to the war are underappreciated, with upward pressure on long-end yields sustaining and leading to steeper yield curves, which will filter through to other assets, and Asia is where supply chain risks are most acute despite good fundamentals.
Executive Editor,...
Stagflation risks pressure Asia and long yields.
Longer-term stagflation risks from supply chain problems due to the war are underappreciated, with upward pressure on long-end yields sustaining and leading to steeper yield curves, which will filter through to other assets, and Asia is where supply chain risks are most acute despite good fundamentals.
Executive Editor,...
Bullish on stocks in short term.
Short-term optimism for stocks due to ongoing negotiations with low expectations not being a problem, strategic blockades cutting off Iran's economic advantages from oil exports, and US Navy actions bringing closer reopening of Strait of Hormuz, improving conflict dynamics.
Executive Editor,...
Long-term bond yields to rise.
The yield curve is likely to steepen globally as front-end yields may come down due to growth concerns from the war while long-end yields rise due to fiscal pressures, presenting a dynamic worth monitoring.
Executive Editor,...
YouTube
Iran War: Military Strikes Continue as US, Tehran Argue Over Terms | The Opening Trade 3/26/2026
Cudmore states he turned "bearish gold at the start of the month" and believes "it's got more downside." He argues the war's onset is inflationary, leading to a stronger dollar and higher yields, which is bad for gold. The traditional war premium has been paid; gold buyers have gotten their catalyst. In the current dynamic, the conflict supports a stronger dollar (US resilience) and potentially higher real yields (inflation fears), both headwinds for gold. SHORT gold as it is failing to act as a safe haven and faces deteriorating macro dynamics specific to this conflict. A dramatic escalation involving direct US-Iran ground conflict that triggers a panic flight to traditional havens, overwhelming the dollar/yield dynamic.
GOLD
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 26, 10:39
Executive Editor,...
Mark Cudmore explicitly stated he turned bearish on gold at the start of the month after the invasion and believes it has more downside until the conflict is over, citing profit-taking and fundamental pressures. The Middle East war has occurred, reducing gold's haven demand. Dollar strengthening, upward yield pressure, and potential central bank sales of gold reserves create a negative environment. SHORT because gold has lost its edge as a growth hedge and safe-haven asset during the ongoing conflict, with multiple factors aligning for further decline. An abrupt end to the conflict or a shift in monetary policy dynamics (e.g., dollar weakness, yield drops) could reverse the bearish thesis.
GOLD
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 26, 08:24
Executive Editor,...
YouTube
Iran War: US Awaits Response to Peace Plan, Tehran Keeps Up Attacks | The Opening Trade 3/25/2026
Mark Cudmore is "very bearish" on global stocks, arguing fundamentals are worse than a week ago due to more energy infrastructure damage and continued Strait closure, yet markets are trading higher. He believes the market is mistakenly focused on superficial headline trading and "jawboning" while ignoring a clear and worsening stagflationary shock from the ongoing supply disruption. The disconnect between price action and deteriorating fundamentals presents a downside risk. An authentic and swift de-escalation that resolves the physical supply blockade quickly.
ACWI
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 25, 10:54
Executive Editor,...
YouTube
Iran War: US Forms 15-Point Plan to End War as Trump Pushes Talks | Daybreak Europe 3/25/2026
Marc Cudmore states specific Brent crude price levels are key: above $100.50 means the relief rally from peace talks is exhausted; above $105 implies a "much more negative scenario"; below $95 implies the market believes the war will be over soon. These levels act as clear benchmarks for traders to gauge market sentiment on the geopolitical risk premium. The current situation, with ongoing conflict and Iranian control of the Strait, has not fundamentally improved. WATCH these specific technical/psychological levels as they provide a framework for assessing whether the market is pricing escalation or de-escalation. An unexpected, discrete event (e.g., a major attack on infrastructure) could break this technical framework and cause a non-linear price move.
BRN
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 25, 08:19
Executive Editor for...
The speaker states he remains "very bearish stocks," argues things are likely to get worse, and believes equity investors are complacent about geopolitical risks. With no clear path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and no logical off-ramp for Iran, the conflict is expected to worsen, creating a negative shock to global growth and corporate earnings that equities have not priced in. The direction is AVOID due to an expected deterioration in the fundamental backdrop (higher oil, slower growth) and the speaker's conviction that current prices do not reflect the escalating risk. A rapid and credible de-escalation that opens the Strait of Hormuz would alleviate the major supply and inflation shock, potentially supporting equity markets.
SPY
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 24, 08:39
Executive Editor,...
YouTube
Iran War: Tehran Strikes Gulf Targets as Hormuz Deadline Looms | The Opening Trade 3/23/2026
Cudmore stated, "I think that gold should continue to the climb... I would not be surprised if the conflict continues that we have another 10% downside." Gold has failed as a safe haven; investors who bought it on war risk are taking profits. It faces headwinds from a strong dollar, higher yields, and being a source of liquid funds for margin calls. The near-term path for gold is lower, with significant further downside possible. A dramatic escalation (e.g., direct U.S.-Iran conflict) that triggers a panic flight to traditional havens.
GOLD
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 23, 10:16
Executive Editor,...
The speaker states the environment is "very negative" for gold due to a stronger dollar, higher yields, and the fact that buyers who purchased on war risk "got your war" and are now taking profit. With the primary geopolitical catalyst now realized and marginal macro factors turning hostile, there is no near-term positive catalyst to support the price. The recent drop is seen as capitulation, not a bottom. SHORT. The speaker explicitly says "gold should continue to decline very short term" and sees potential for another 10% downside in the coming weeks. An unexpected, severe escalation in the Middle East conflict could reignite safe-haven demand.
GOLD
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 23, 08:26
Executive Editor,...
The speaker states his view hasn't changed: "it's bad, it's going to get worse." He notes the market is "still positioned very optimistically" with a belief the conflict will end soon, creating an asymmetric setup for further declines. Despite a significant selloff, market positioning and sentiment have not fully capitulated or priced in a prolonged conflict. The high uncertainty versus the market's optimistic base case creates asymmetric downside risk. SHORT. The speaker explicitly advocates staying bearish as a contrarian position, arguing the "asymmetric setup is for much more declines to come." A rapid and peaceful resolution to the Middle East conflict could spark a sharp relief rally.
SPY
Bloomberg Markets
Mar 23, 08:26
Executive Editor,...