ABF substrate supply is full through Q4 2026, while data-center construction is raising demand for skilled trades and financing pressure on other projects.
Funda data relayed by pequityresearch says tier-one and tier-two ABF substrate makers are full through the fourth quarter of 2026, with lead times reaching 48 to 52 weeks. Separate Digitimes reports say AMD’s chief executive went to Taiwan seeking more foundry, packaging, testing and substrate capacity. The constraint can limit accelerator shipments even when end demand remains strong.
Noah Smith cites Goldman Sachs estimating that 500,000 construction and trades jobs must be added by 2030 to sustain the data-center buildout. He also says those projects crowd out other activity by absorbing scarce labor and raising interest rates, which makes competing projects harder to finance. The buildout therefore creates labor demand while imposing a financing cost elsewhere in the economy.
@gaetano2026 named LITE, COHR and MRVL as a long basket offering durability alongside upside in optical and networking exposure.
Aletheia sees AMD server CPU upside but says 2027 is supply-constrained; TSMC N2 and packaging output determine when the growth can land.
Bubbleboi explicitly shorted Ibiden as overpriced and vulnerable to substrate market-share loss.
Paul Gabrail argues Tesla’s current valuation implies negative returns over the coming decade.