VC VCX Fundrise Innovation Fund, LLC Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views

The author argues VCX holds exposure to Anthropic and SpaceX, and that an Anthropic IPO/S-1 filing could reignite interest in the fund, citing a prior nearly 1,000% five-day move on SpaceX IPO rumors. The catalyst is imminent Anthropic IPO news, with SpaceX's flying-car introduction cited as an additional near-term boost. The main stated risk is that the trade fails and the author loses his life savings.

The author suggests DXYZ and VCX have not yet experienced the ridiculous pre-S-1 run-up that occurred with SpaceX, implying the expected catalyst may not materialize. The reasoning is that without that prior run-up pattern, the anticipated upside is unlikely, so the author is skeptical of chasing these names.

The author notes VCX opened at $34.40 versus a last filed NAV of $21.70, a roughly 1.6x premium, and that a $1B at-the-market offering was announced the prior day. Because an ATM lets the fund sell shares whenever the stock is hot without a board meeting or press release, the author argues steady supply can hit a stock already 60% above NAV, potentially doubling the float given $650-700M in net assets. The cited precedent is DXYZ, whose ATM has been pressuring its premium for months. Main risk implied is that the premium could persist or the fund may not lean into the ATM as aggressively as expected.