Aaron Wei 5.0 61 ideas

Semiconductor Analyst, investor based in Taiwan
After 1 day
40%winrate
-0.5% avg
19W / 28L · 47/53 ideas
After 1 week
30%winrate
-1.0% avg
14W / 33L · 47/54 ideas
After 1 month
N/A
9/15 min ideas
2 winning  /  7 losing  ·  9 positions (30d)
Net: -0.2%
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
GOOGL LONG $338.79 Apr 16
TSM LONG $376.95 Apr 16
TSM LONG $376.95 Apr 16
AMD LONG $258.28 Apr 16
GOOGL SHORT $331.69 Apr 15
TSM LONG $384.11 Apr 15
MRVL LONG $133.60 Apr 14
AMD LONG $248.80 Apr 14
AMD LONG $246.83 Apr 14
AVGO LONG $379.41 Apr 14
2454.TW LONG — — Apr 14
GOOGL LONG $317.48 Apr 13
TSM LONG $370.90 Apr 12
GOOG SHORT — — Apr 11
SSNLF LONG — — Apr 11
GOOGL LONG $317.03 Apr 10
INTC LONG $62.38 Apr 10
TSM LONG $316.50 Mar 30
NVDA SHORT $171.90 Mar 27
VCX LONG $173.00 Mar 27
JPM LONG $282.84 Mar 27
ARM LONG $157.07 Mar 25
META SHORT $594.89 Mar 25
AAPL SHORT $251.64 Mar 24
TSM LONG $338.45 Mar 23
META SHORT $593.66 Mar 20
MU LONG $448.20 Mar 20
NVDA LONG $178.56 Mar 19
NVDA LONG $178.56 Mar 19
MU LONG $444.27 Mar 19
By sector
Stock
60 ideas +11.7%
taiwan-listed stock
1 ideas
Top tickers (by frequency)
NVDA 11 ideas
— —
TSM 10 ideas
— —
AVGO 7 ideas
100% W +8.9%
GOOGL 6 ideas
— —
META 4 ideas
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Best and worst calls
Best calls
TSLA SHORT +14.4%
Tesla's reported postponement of its 2nm chip production deal with Samsung signals potential delays in its AI hardware r...
Mar 11
AVGO LONG +8.9%
Toppan's strong partnership with Broadcom on glass substrates signals positive growth potential for AVGO.
Mar 11
Worst calls
AVGO LONG +8.9%
Toppan's strong partnership with Broadcom on glass substrates signals positive growth potential for AVGO.
Mar 11
TSLA SHORT +14.4%
Tesla's reported postponement of its 2nm chip production deal with Samsung signals potential delays in its AI hardware r...
Mar 11
Avoid AVGO due to massive execution risk stemming from a winner-take-all battle with MediaTek for Google's TPU v9 design, making 2028 volume forecasts overly optimistic.
AVGO HIGH Apr 16, 13:39
"When you factor in this massive execution risk and the battle over packaging platforms, the recent volume forecasts for 2028 look even more reckless."
𝕏 @arronwei3n ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 16, 2026 at 13:39
𝕏 @arronwei3n
Semiconductor Analyst,...
Buy GOOGL as the development of a custom SRAM compute engine for its TPU v9 generation will capture significant wallet share in the broader AI compute market.
GOOGL HIGH Apr 16, 13:22
"We believe this is likely to take significant wallet share of the total AI Compute TAM"
𝕏 @arronwei3n ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 16, 2026 at 13:22
𝕏 @arronwei3n
Semiconductor Analyst,...
Go long TSM following exceptionally strong Q2 guidance that significantly beats upper forecasts, highlighted by robust gross margins and revenue projections.
TSM HIGH Apr 16, 06:09
"Holy moly. $TSM 2Q26 Guidance🚀"
𝕏 @arronwei3n ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 16, 2026 at 06:09
𝕏 @arronwei3n
Semiconductor Analyst,...
Buy TSM as stronger-than-forecast gross margins and significantly raised AI-driven capex plans signal superior pricing power and sustained demand visibility for advanced semiconductors.
TSM HIGH Apr 16, 05:38
"66% GM🔥🔥🔥 $TSM beats the upper forecasts again."
𝕏 @arronwei3n ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 16, 2026 at 05:38
𝕏 @arronwei3n
Semiconductor Analyst,...
Go long AMD as a relative value play against NVDA, as the company is uniquely positioned to capture hardware demand from hyperscalers actively seeking to diversify their AI supply chains.
AMD HIGH Apr 16, 02:17
"This is why $AMD is a better bet than $NVDA at this level as it’s well positioned to capture the demand from hyperscalers that seek to diversify away from $NVDA."
𝕏 @arronwei3n ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 16, 2026 at 02:17
𝕏 @arronwei3n
Semiconductor Analyst,...
Fade the absurdly high TPU shipment forecasts for Google, as the market is ignoring the physical reality of TSM's packaging capacity limits which will constrain actual supply.
GOOGL HIGH Apr 15, 10:14
"The market is trading purely on Google's capex dreams and completely ignoring the physical reality of $TSM's packaging capacity limits."
𝕏 @arronwei3n ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 15, 2026 at 10:14
𝕏 @arronwei3n
Semiconductor Analyst,...
Buy TSMC ahead of its earnings call as the company is expected to provide a stronger-than-expected three-year capex outlook of $200bn, driven by increased visibility in AI-related demand.
TSM HIGH Apr 15, 02:25
"We suggest accumulating the stock into the print, because..."
𝕏 @arronwei3n ⏲ short-term Source ↗
April 15, 2026 at 02:25
𝕏 @arronwei3n
Semiconductor Analyst,...
Buy Marvell as its expanding involvement in both TPU and LPU architectures positions it to benefit from rapidly rising optical circuit switch ratios in scale-up scenarios.
MRVL HIGH Apr 14, 14:04
"We observed that the OCS ratio in Scale Up scenarios is still rising rapidly, and we also found that $MRVL is involved not only in TPU but also in LPU."
𝕏 @arronwei3n ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 14:04
𝕏 @arronwei3n
Semiconductor Analyst,...
Buy AMD (and GOOGL) based on favorable AI GPU demand forecasts, implying the current market price undervalues their growth potential in the artificial intelligence infrastructure space.
AMD MED Apr 14, 09:38
"I think $GOOGL and $AMD are too low."
𝕏 @arronwei3n ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 09:38
𝕏 @arronwei3n
Semiconductor Analyst,...
Buy AMD ahead of its May 5th earnings, as GPU and CPU demand is outstripping supply, and robust guidance is anticipated due to the "Agentic AI" trend and market share gains.
AMD HIGH Apr 14, 08:12
"Driven by the 'Agentic AI' trend, AMD’s value proposition is set to further strengthen, fueled by rapid CPU market share gains, its roadmap execution, and significant improvements in the..."
𝕏 @arronwei3n ⏲ short-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 08:12
𝕏 @arronwei3n
Semiconductor Analyst,...
Buy Broadcom as a direct beneficiary of surging demand for AI infrastructure, evidenced by a major, multi-year custom silicon supply deal with a leading AI lab (Anthropic).
AVGO MED Apr 14, 03:53
"Anthropic - $AVGO TPU deal. 3.5M spanning 5 years."
𝕏 @arronwei3n ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 03:53
𝕏 @arronwei3n
Semiconductor Analyst,...
Maintain long exposure to MediaTek as supply chain checks confirm its 3nm TPU remains on schedule for 2H26 mass production, mitigating concerns over Broadcom-Google developments.
2454.TW HIGH Apr 14, 03:12
"While this raises some doubts about MediaTek's strategic position in the TPU supply chain, it doesn’t change our positive view on its 3nm TPU (ZebraFish)."
𝕏 @arronwei3n ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 14, 2026 at 03:12
𝕏 @arronwei3n
Semiconductor Analyst,...
Buy GOOGL as supply chain data indicates a significant upward revision in TPU volumes to 50 million units by 2028, signaling robust AI infrastructure growth.
GOOGL HIGH Apr 13, 06:57
"That is, from 2026 to 2028, the total volume will be revised up to 50 million units."
𝕏 @arronwei3n ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 13, 2026 at 06:57
𝕏 @arronwei3n
Semiconductor Analyst,...
Monitor Google's capital allocation and AI infrastructure strategy, as its long-term in-house goals may conflict with a recently signed multi-year dependency on Broadcom, presenting a future execution risk.
GOOGL MED Apr 12, 01:36
"So It's a little shock for me that $GOOGL committed to a 5-year contract with $AVGO at that time."
𝕏 @arronwei3n ⏲ long-term Source ↗
April 12, 2026 at 01:36
𝕏 @arronwei3n
Semiconductor Analyst,...
Long TSMC as it remains the undisputed gold standard in foundry and advanced packaging, easily outperforming struggling competitors like Intel.
TSM HIGH Apr 12, 00:49
"$TSM is golden standard, can’t compare."
𝕏 @arronwei3n ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 12, 2026 at 00:49
𝕏 @arronwei3n
Semiconductor Analyst,...
Aaron Wei (Semiconductor Analyst, investor based in Taiwan) | 61 trade ideas tracked | NVDA, TSM, AVGO, GOOGL, META | Twitter | Buzzberg