UKGILT UK Gilt Index Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions
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21:01
Jun 01
Jun 01
UK gilts face fiscal risk and higher yields.
The UK faces a systemic fiscal problem with high debt-to-GDP and weak growth. Political instability and the risk that any challenger to Starmer will increase spending make the gilt market dislike UK bonds. Yields are already above the levels that toppled Liz Truss, and the bond market acts as a straitjacket for policy, with risks skewed toward more fiscal loosening and higher yields.
MED
14:55
Jun 01
Jun 01
UK gilts will have calmer summer.
UK gilts have already rallied 40-45bp in the last two weeks. The upcoming by-election and positive fiscal rule stance are supportive. Unless there is an escalation in Iran or oil spikes above $120, the summer should be calmer for UK gilts, implying yields will not spike further.
LOW
13:41
May 31
May 31
UK gilts are risky due to fiscal pressures.
UK government bonds (gilts) face significant headwinds from political instability, heightened fiscal spending risks, and yields that have already surpassed levels that toppled the Liz Truss government, making them unattractive and dangerous for bond investors.
MED
12:00
May 30
May 30
UK gilt yields biased higher
UK gilt yields are elevated and likely to stay under upward pressure due to political instability and fiscal spending risks, as the bond market acts as a constraint on government policy. Yields have already surpassed levels seen during the Liz Truss crisis, and any change in leadership is expected to increase fiscal leniency.
MED
10:02
May 26
May 26
Long UK gilts targeting yield drop.
UK gilt yields overran due to inflation and fiscal concerns; she entered long at 5% targeting 4.70% based on historical patterns and belief that yields are at top of range.
HIGH
19:53
May 20
May 20
UK gilts offer high risk premium
UK government bonds offer a lot of risk premium relative to weak growth expectations. The implied forward yield on a 10-year UK government bond 10 years from now is 6.6%, which is very high, especially if growth is weak. This suggests gilts are undervalued and attractive for long-term investors.
HIGH
17:00
May 14
May 14
UK political uncertainty pressures gilts.
Months of a leadership battle will bring more political uncertainty, more pressure on gilts, adding to the cost of borrowing.
MED
10:53
May 14
May 14
Buy UK gilts on yield spike
UK political instability from a Labour leadership challenge could cause gilt yields to spike. If the 10-year gilt yield rises more than 50 basis points from current levels (around 4.5%), it becomes an attractive buying opportunity because a policy reaction (fiscal tightening or rate cuts) would follow, similar to the Liz Truss episode.
MED
07:12
May 12
May 12
Gilt yields to climb higher.
UK gilt yields will continue to rise due to fiscal concerns, high debt servicing costs, and political uncertainty around Prime Minister Starmer's future, unless a new more fiscally conservative chancellor is appointed. The market has not fully priced in the risk.
HIGH
12:52
May 11
May 11
Gilts underperform due to political uncertainty
Political uncertainty around UK Prime Minister Starmer's leadership, with a potential shift to a soft-left leader like Angela Rayner, raises the risk of unfunded spending increases. The gilt market, already underperforming, has no appetite for such fiscal expansion given the UK's high debt-to-GDP ratio of 100%. This adds a risk premium to gilts, particularly at the long end.
MED
11:09
May 06
May 06
UK gilt yields not expected higher
UK gilt yields are not expected to rise further because net supply is set to fall by 20% this year, which is fundamentally supportive once political uncertainty fades.
MED
11:29
Apr 27
Apr 27
Buy front-end European and UK core rates
European and UK core rates are overpricing the chance of rate hikes. When energy flows resume through the Strait of Hormuz, the risk premium will unwind, making front-end bonds attractive to buy opportunistically. The market is pricing more than two hikes from the ECB and BOE, which is too much given the likely outcome.
MED
09:42
Apr 27
Apr 27
Short UK gilts on inflation overshoot.
UK gilts are vulnerable because the UK tends to have larger inflation overshoots (potentially above 4%), and the Bank of England may be dragged toward hikes.
MED
12:01
Apr 17
Apr 17
UK gilts and linkers are good inflation hedges.
She is looking at UK gilts and UK linkers for inflation protection because hikes have been priced in, and questions whether the Bank of England will hike into a slowing growth environment, suggesting they offer value as an inflation hedge.
MED
11:53
Apr 17
Apr 17
Avoid GILTS due to volatility.
GILTS are in a tough spot due to heightened volatility and repricing of BOE rate cut expectations; two-year GILTS have had the toughest period since 2022, making them unattractive.
HIGH
11:16
Apr 16
Apr 16
Bank of England will cut interest rates.
The Bank of England will cut interest rates, as the market is currently repricing too many hikes. The level of interest rates is still very high and the expected disruption from higher energy prices has not yet materialized in the data, supporting the case for future rate cuts.
MED
08:19
Mar 25
Mar 25
Emma Wall states UK retail investors are buying gilts for the compelling yield (near 5%) and that actively managed fixed income funds with nimble mandates are popular to exploit volatility in inflation expectations. High nominal yields provide attractive income, and professional management is seen as a way to navigate an uncertain rate environment exacerbated by the war's impact on inflation. LONG as retail flow data shows clear demand driven by yield attraction and a strategy to actively manage interest rate risk. A sustained spike in inflation from an energy shock could lead to further bond sell-offs, pressuring prices.
16:11
Mar 20
Mar 20
The ongoing war with Iran is expected to keep UK gilt yields elevated, negatively impacting the UK's fiscal position and thus bond prices.
MED
09:42
Mar 20
Mar 20
The market is now fully pricing in three Bank of England rate hikes for the current year, which implies continued upward pressure on UK Gilt yields and downward pressure on their prices.
MED
13:04
Mar 06
Mar 06
Once again, the UK government bond market is exhibiting its "high beta"—in this case, seeing borrowing costs rise more sharply in reaction to higher oil prices than those of other advanced economies.
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About UKGILT Analyst Coverage
Buzzberg tracks UKGILT (UK Gilt Index) across 6 sources. 9 bullish vs 2 bearish calls from 19 analysts. Sentiment: predominantly bullish (33%). 21 total trade ideas tracked.