UKGILT UK Gilt Index Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions
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13:11
Jul 17
Jul 17
UK gilts rally as political risk fades
UK political uncertainty has been priced into gilts with yields near 5%. If the new prime minister removes that uncertainty premium, gilts could have a reasonable repricing rally.
MED
07:50
Jul 17
Jul 17
UK gilts have scope to rally
UK gilts have underperformed due to energy-price sensitivity, but with oil retreating and UK economic data weak relative to the US, the Bank of England has more scope to ease policy. This creates potential for gilt yields to move lower, making gilts attractive relative to US Treasuries.
MED
10:25
Jul 14
Jul 14
BOE won't deliver priced hikes, gilts rally
The market is pricing two further Bank of England rate hikes this year due to war-driven UK inflation fears, but underlying inflationary pressures are actually subsiding. The BOE's scenario framework from February suggests patience; as energy inflation data evolves, the Bank is likely to stay on hold rather than deliver the hikes priced, implying UK gilt yields will fall and prices rise.
MED
10:31
Jul 10
Jul 10
UK gilts attractive amid low hikes.
We are underweight bonds overall but like UK gilts. With less pressure for rate hikes after the change of prime minister and a more left-leaning government not signaling major policy shifts, gilts offer relative value and upside potential.
MED
11:20
Jul 02
Jul 02
UK Gilts and EM bonds offer attractive yields.
UK Gilts and emerging-market hard currency bonds offer attractive high yields for long-term investors, as the UK economy is not conducive to a big hiking cycle.
MED
10:17
Jun 30
Jun 30
UK gilts to rally on policy credibility
Andy Burnham's plans for economic devolution, transparent long-term infrastructure planning, and credible fiscal policy will improve UK growth and reduce debt, benefiting UK government bonds. The gilt market has already outperformed other markets since the by-election, reflecting returning credibility.
MED
10:05
Jun 29
Jun 29
BOE won't hike, gilts bullish
With oil prices coming down and a weak economic background, there is no reason for the Bank of England to hike rates, contrary to market pricing. ING does not expect a hike; the UK political situation is being ignored by markets, which is different from Europe.
MED
07:40
Jun 25
Jun 25
BOE less hawkish, buy gilts
Markets are pricing too many UK rate hikes, but the Bank of England will remain on hold and is biased towards cutting; the monetary policy outlook is more benign, favoring a rally in UK government bonds.
MED
15:31
Jun 22
Jun 22
UK gilts face fiscal risk, watch developments
The UK political shift toward Andy Burnham raises the likelihood of looser fiscal policy, which could pressure gilts. However, candidates are likely to pledge respect for fiscal rules, limiting a Liz Truss-style selloff. The market already moved last week; the key risk is if Ed Miliband becomes chancellor, triggering a bigger selloff. For now, gilts face fiscal headwinds but not a crash.
MED
11:12
Jun 22
Jun 22
Watch UK gilts and pound amid transition
UK markets are in a wait-and-watch mode over the Labour leadership transition. The identity of the next Chancellor is crucial because UK debt servicing costs are at a six-year high, and investors previously favored Rachel Reeves for her commitment to fiscal rules. A more left-wing Chancellor like Ed Miliband could unsettle markets, so the path of gilts and the pound hinges on the new leader's fiscal credibility.
MED
10:16
Jun 22
Jun 22
UK political uncertainty hits gilts, pound.
Until the UK political transition is clear and there is policy continuity, uncertainty will weigh on gilt prices and the British pound, creating headwinds for both.
MED
07:38
Jun 22
Jun 22
UK gilts face long-term political pressure.
Starmer's exit is highly telegraphed so UK gilts have limited short-term downside, and the seamless replacement by Burnham provides slight relief; however, long-term political turmoil will be traded as a negative for gilts.
MED
13:12
Jun 20
Jun 20
Watch UK gilts and sterling amid political uncertainty.
The leadership challenge to Keir Starmer after Andy Burnham's by-election win is unprecedented and creates political uncertainty. Markets are currently muted in gilts and sterling but are watching two key signals: how the contest plays out and, more importantly, whom Burnham picks as Chancellor. The chancellor pick will indicate whether Burnham can win market confidence and potentially tweak the UK's totemic fiscal rules, which currently anchor fiscal restraint. This monitoring setup could drive moves in UK government bonds and the pound.
MED
06:46
Jun 19
Jun 19
UK political limbo weighs on gilts, pound
Andy Burnham's by-election win creates political limbo and uncertainty over the timing and nature of a potential challenge to PM Starmer. This limbo will be closely watched by gilt and pound investors, as Burnham has a poor track record with gilt markets. Although he is assembling a team of economic advisers to strengthen his policy case, the prolonged uncertainty and his unelected status if he becomes PM are likely to weigh on UK assets in the near term.
MED
09:11
Jun 17
Jun 17
Fade rate hikes via US/UK bonds
The US-Iran peace deal reduces oil prices and inflation, removing the need for further rate hikes by major central banks like the Fed and Bank of England. The bond market is still pricing about 30–35 basis points of hikes over the next year, which is too aggressive. The Fed under new chair Kevin Warsh may avoid hiking, and the Bank of England has already tightened financial conditions by pricing out cuts. U.S. and UK government bonds are attractive because rate hike expectations should be faded.
HIGH
10:47
Jun 16
Jun 16
Long UK gilts, yields to fall 50bp
The UK government bond market offers value across the curve. The market is pricing in rate hikes that are unlikely to materialize, and yields could be 50 basis points lower within weeks or months as the BOE eventually cuts.
MED
07:48
Jun 10
Jun 10
Buy UK gilts on yield spikes
A potential win by left‑wing candidate Burnham in the UK by‑election could cause a sharp spike in gilt yields due to fears of looser fiscal policy. However, UK political realities constrain radical fiscal moves, and the Bank of England is less adventurous than the ECB on hiking, making that spike a buying opportunity.
MED
21:01
Jun 01
Jun 01
UK gilts face fiscal risk and higher yields.
The UK faces a systemic fiscal problem with high debt-to-GDP and weak growth. Political instability and the risk that any challenger to Starmer will increase spending make the gilt market dislike UK bonds. Yields are already above the levels that toppled Liz Truss, and the bond market acts as a straitjacket for policy, with risks skewed toward more fiscal loosening and higher yields.
MED
14:55
Jun 01
Jun 01
UK gilts will have calmer summer.
UK gilts have already rallied 40-45bp in the last two weeks. The upcoming by-election and positive fiscal rule stance are supportive. Unless there is an escalation in Iran or oil spikes above $120, the summer should be calmer for UK gilts, implying yields will not spike further.
LOW
13:41
May 31
May 31
UK gilts are risky due to fiscal pressures.
UK government bonds (gilts) face significant headwinds from political instability, heightened fiscal spending risks, and yields that have already surpassed levels that toppled the Liz Truss government, making them unattractive and dangerous for bond investors.
MED
12:00
May 30
May 30
UK gilt yields biased higher
UK gilt yields are elevated and likely to stay under upward pressure due to political instability and fiscal spending risks, as the bond market acts as a constraint on government policy. Yields have already surpassed levels seen during the Liz Truss crisis, and any change in leadership is expected to increase fiscal leniency.
MED
10:02
May 26
May 26
Long UK gilts targeting yield drop.
UK gilt yields overran due to inflation and fiscal concerns; she entered long at 5% targeting 4.70% based on historical patterns and belief that yields are at top of range.
HIGH
19:53
May 20
May 20
UK gilts offer high risk premium
UK government bonds offer a lot of risk premium relative to weak growth expectations. The implied forward yield on a 10-year UK government bond 10 years from now is 6.6%, which is very high, especially if growth is weak. This suggests gilts are undervalued and attractive for long-term investors.
HIGH
17:00
May 14
May 14
UK political uncertainty pressures gilts.
Months of a leadership battle will bring more political uncertainty, more pressure on gilts, adding to the cost of borrowing.
MED
10:53
May 14
May 14
Buy UK gilts on yield spike
UK political instability from a Labour leadership challenge could cause gilt yields to spike. If the 10-year gilt yield rises more than 50 basis points from current levels (around 4.5%), it becomes an attractive buying opportunity because a policy reaction (fiscal tightening or rate cuts) would follow, similar to the Liz Truss episode.
MED
07:12
May 12
May 12
Gilt yields to climb higher.
UK gilt yields will continue to rise due to fiscal concerns, high debt servicing costs, and political uncertainty around Prime Minister Starmer's future, unless a new more fiscally conservative chancellor is appointed. The market has not fully priced in the risk.
HIGH
12:52
May 11
May 11
Gilts underperform due to political uncertainty
Political uncertainty around UK Prime Minister Starmer's leadership, with a potential shift to a soft-left leader like Angela Rayner, raises the risk of unfunded spending increases. The gilt market, already underperforming, has no appetite for such fiscal expansion given the UK's high debt-to-GDP ratio of 100%. This adds a risk premium to gilts, particularly at the long end.
MED
11:09
May 06
May 06
UK gilt yields not expected higher
UK gilt yields are not expected to rise further because net supply is set to fall by 20% this year, which is fundamentally supportive once political uncertainty fades.
MED
11:29
Apr 27
Apr 27
Buy front-end European and UK core rates
European and UK core rates are overpricing the chance of rate hikes. When energy flows resume through the Strait of Hormuz, the risk premium will unwind, making front-end bonds attractive to buy opportunistically. The market is pricing more than two hikes from the ECB and BOE, which is too much given the likely outcome.
MED
09:42
Apr 27
Apr 27
Short UK gilts on inflation overshoot.
UK gilts are vulnerable because the UK tends to have larger inflation overshoots (potentially above 4%), and the Bank of England may be dragged toward hikes.
MED
About UKGILT Analyst Coverage
Buzzberg tracks UKGILT (UK Gilt Index) across 6 sources. 20 bullish vs 4 bearish calls from 34 analysts. Sentiment: predominantly bullish (42%). 38 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days: 3 bullish. Latest voices: John Bolton, Janet Mui, Bruna Skarica.