Analyst discusses that the longer the Iran conflict goes on, the higher the upside risk to oil prices, with one analyst citing a potential for $200/barrel. A prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts a critical chokepoint for global crude and, importantly, refined products like jet fuel and diesel, creating a sustained supply deficit. The current elevated price (~$108) contains a risk premium, but the structural supply disruption from a prolonged conflict is not fully priced in, presenting asymmetric upside risk. A swift diplomatic resolution and reopening of the Strait would alleviate supply constraints and cause prices to fall sharply.