Calls
17
#810
Alpha Score 40.8
John Bolton
Former US National Security Advisor / Ambassador
Win Rate
29.4%
return
+0.7%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Aug 07
$770.33
-0.7%
This has been one of the best earnings seasons in memory, with S&P 500 underlying earnings growth up in the high 20s. The US economy shows strong consumption and investment, shorter-cycle end markets are recovering, and fundamentals are very strong at both company and macroeconomic levels. Higher rates are a headwind, but there are signs rates are going higher for the right reasons, supporting stocks.
Equity Indexes
Long
May 20
$221.24
-1.4%
Nvidia's valuation at a sub-20 P/E (market multiple) with massive free cash flow generation and substantial shareholder returns (buyback and dividend) makes the stock attractive. The re-segmentation to highlight edge computing signals future growth, supporting the investment thesis.
AI Compute
Long
Feb 28
$34.81
+76.1%
Bolton discusses the potential "fall of the ayatollahs" and the destruction of "instruments of Iranian state power." In a petro-state like Iran, "instruments of state power" are inextricably linked to oil production and export infrastructure. Regime collapse or a transition to a "military government" creates extreme uncertainty regarding global oil supply, necessitating a geopolitical risk premium on energy assets. Long Energy and Oil Futures as a hedge against supply shock. A rapid, peaceful transition (unlikely per Bolton's tone) or Trump exiting the conflict immediately without disrupting oil infrastructure.
Bolton discusses the potential "fall of the ayatollahs" and the destruction of "instruments of Iranian state power." In a petro-state like Iran, "instruments of state power" are inextricably linked to oil production and export infrastructure. Regime collapse or a transition to a "military government" creates extreme uncertainty regarding global oil supply, necessitating a geopolitical risk premium on energy assets. Long Energy and Oil Futures as a hedge against supply shock. A rapid, peaceful transition (unlikely per Bolton's tone) or Trump exiting the conflict immediately without disrupting oil infrastructure.
Commodities
Long
Feb 28
$243.72
-10.8%
Bolton states the strikes are targeting "Iran's nuclear weapons program, its ballistic missile program" and destroying the "instruments of Iranian state power." The explicit targeting of ballistic missile infrastructure and state power requires significant expenditure of precision munitions and air defense interceptors. A sustained campaign or the threat of Iranian retaliation ensures continued demand for US defense contractors to replenish stockpiles and maintain deterrence. Long Defense Primes and Aerospace. Trump declares "victory" early (as Bolton fears), reducing the duration and intensity of the conflict, leading to a pullback in defense sentiment.
Bolton states the strikes are targeting "Iran's nuclear weapons program, its ballistic missile program" and destroying the "instruments of Iranian state power." The explicit targeting of ballistic missile infrastructure and state power requires significant expenditure of precision munitions and air defense interceptors. A sustained campaign or the threat of Iranian retaliation ensures continued demand for US defense contractors to replenish stockpiles and maintain deterrence. Long Defense Primes and Aerospace. Trump declares "victory" early (as Bolton fears), reducing the duration and intensity of the conflict, leading to a pullback in defense sentiment.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Feb 28
$658.08
-20.4%
Bolton states the strikes are targeting "Iran's nuclear weapons program, its ballistic missile program" and destroying the "instruments of Iranian state power." The explicit targeting of ballistic missile infrastructure and state power requires significant expenditure of precision munitions and air defense interceptors. A sustained campaign or the threat of Iranian retaliation ensures continued demand for US defense contractors to replenish stockpiles and maintain deterrence. Long Defense Primes and Aerospace. Trump declares "victory" early (as Bolton fears), reducing the duration and intensity of the conflict, leading to a pullback in defense sentiment.
Bolton states the strikes are targeting "Iran's nuclear weapons program, its ballistic missile program" and destroying the "instruments of Iranian state power." The explicit targeting of ballistic missile infrastructure and state power requires significant expenditure of precision munitions and air defense interceptors. A sustained campaign or the threat of Iranian retaliation ensures continued demand for US defense contractors to replenish stockpiles and maintain deterrence. Long Defense Primes and Aerospace. Trump declares "victory" early (as Bolton fears), reducing the duration and intensity of the conflict, leading to a pullback in defense sentiment.
Defense
Long
Feb 28
$202.62
-2.3%
Bolton states the strikes are targeting "Iran's nuclear weapons program, its ballistic missile program" and destroying the "instruments of Iranian state power." The explicit targeting of ballistic missile infrastructure and state power requires significant expenditure of precision munitions and air defense interceptors. A sustained campaign or the threat of Iranian retaliation ensures continued demand for US defense contractors to replenish stockpiles and maintain deterrence. Long Defense Primes and Aerospace. Trump declares "victory" early (as Bolton fears), reducing the duration and intensity of the conflict, leading to a pullback in defense sentiment.
Bolton states the strikes are targeting "Iran's nuclear weapons program, its ballistic missile program" and destroying the "instruments of Iranian state power." The explicit targeting of ballistic missile infrastructure and state power requires significant expenditure of precision munitions and air defense interceptors. A sustained campaign or the threat of Iranian retaliation ensures continued demand for US defense contractors to replenish stockpiles and maintain deterrence. Long Defense Primes and Aerospace. Trump declares "victory" early (as Bolton fears), reducing the duration and intensity of the conflict, leading to a pullback in defense sentiment.
Defense
Long
Feb 28
$55.92
+16.5%
Bolton discusses the potential "fall of the ayatollahs" and the destruction of "instruments of Iranian state power." In a petro-state like Iran, "instruments of state power" are inextricably linked to oil production and export infrastructure. Regime collapse or a transition to a "military government" creates extreme uncertainty regarding global oil supply, necessitating a geopolitical risk premium on energy assets. Long Energy and Oil Futures as a hedge against supply shock. A rapid, peaceful transition (unlikely per Bolton's tone) or Trump exiting the conflict immediately without disrupting oil infrastructure.
Bolton discusses the potential "fall of the ayatollahs" and the destruction of "instruments of Iranian state power." In a petro-state like Iran, "instruments of state power" are inextricably linked to oil production and export infrastructure. Regime collapse or a transition to a "military government" creates extreme uncertainty regarding global oil supply, necessitating a geopolitical risk premium on energy assets. Long Energy and Oil Futures as a hedge against supply shock. A rapid, peaceful transition (unlikely per Bolton's tone) or Trump exiting the conflict immediately without disrupting oil infrastructure.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Aug 07
$186.98
+0.4%
Earnings season has been exceptionally strong, with S&P 500 earnings growth up high 20s on an underlying basis, beating expectations. Technology earnings are similarly robust, marking some of the best results in years. Investors should focus on corporate profits, not just the Fed, supporting a bullish outlook for the S&P 500 and tech.
Thematic ETFs
Long
Aug 07
$497.80
-0.6%
Microsoft showed in its latest quarter that it is starting to monetize AI on the application software side, with usage-based revenues flowing through. The strong report cleared investor overhang and opened the way for a move higher, not just for Microsoft but for software more broadly, with AI monetization a key driver.
Hyperscalers
Long
Jul 17
$87.72
+2.7%
Europe is cheap, has cheapened meaningfully, and serves as a diversification destination for investors broadening their tech exposure. European industry champions will benefit as enterprise software adapts to AI reality.
Equity Indexes
Long
Apr 28
$269.97
+23.2%
Apple is uniquely positioned as a vertically integrated cloud fund with its own chips, models, and tools, giving it a differentiated advantage in the AI ecosystem and expected strong earnings.
AI Hardware
Long
Apr 28
$259.40
-1.0%
Amazon's AWS is turning around its AI story with custom silicon (Graviton, Trainium) gaining traction and the Bedrock model orchestration service capturing explosive revenue growth from Anthropic and others, making Amazon a sleeper in AI with strong cloud acceleration.
Hyperscalers
Long
Apr 28
$349.00
-3.1%
Alphabet is seeing strong search revenue trends, explosive Google Cloud revenue growth from AI adoption, custom chip programs (TPU), and a clear AI monetization story that structurally accelerated revenue growth, making its mid-20s forward PE not overly stretched.
Hyperscalers
Long
Apr 16
$98.15
-21.3%
Netflix is attractive due to its pricing power, contained content budget, double-digit revenue growth, defensive business model, margin expansion, and good capital allocation. The advertising business is a transformative growth lever that expands the addressable consumer base and makes the model more defensive. The company is committed to disciplined capital allocation post the abandoned Warner Bros. deal.
Streaming
Long
Feb 28
$357.05
-0.1%
Bolton states the strikes are targeting "Iran's nuclear weapons program, its ballistic missile program" and destroying the "instruments of Iranian state power." The explicit targeting of ballistic missile infrastructure and state power requires significant expenditure of precision munitions and air defense interceptors. A sustained campaign or the threat of Iranian retaliation ensures continued demand for US defense contractors to replenish stockpiles and maintain deterrence. Long Defense Primes and Aerospace. Trump declares "victory" early (as Bolton fears), reducing the duration and intensity of the conflict, leading to a pullback in defense sentiment.
Bolton states the strikes are targeting "Iran's nuclear weapons program, its ballistic missile program" and destroying the "instruments of Iranian state power." The explicit targeting of ballistic missile infrastructure and state power requires significant expenditure of precision munitions and air defense interceptors. A sustained campaign or the threat of Iranian retaliation ensures continued demand for US defense contractors to replenish stockpiles and maintain deterrence. Long Defense Primes and Aerospace. Trump declares "victory" early (as Bolton fears), reducing the duration and intensity of the conflict, leading to a pullback in defense sentiment.
Defense
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John Bolton has 17 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 17 tickers since February 2026. Win rate 29% across 17 evaluated calls, average return +0.7%. Ranked #810 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: SPY, XLE, BNO.
