Bloomberg Surveillance 6/22/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗ | June 22, 2026 at 15:31 | 2:24:15 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Lori Calvasina — Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets

Jordan Rochester — Head of Strategy

Jim Reid — Head of Global Macro, Deutsche Bank

Nouriel Roubini — Chairman, Roubini Macro Associates

Seema Shah — Chief Global Strategist, Principal Asset Management

Amy Gower — Metals & Mining Commodities Strategist, Morgan Stanley

James Egelhof — Rates Strategist, BNP Paribas

Eric Johnston — Strategist, Cantor Fitzgerald

Colonel Wayne Sanders — Military Analyst

Summary

The episode covers a hawkish shift in Fed policy under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with Wall Street banks calling for multiple rate hikes this year. Progress in Iran-US peace talks is easing oil prices, while a change in UK leadership adds political risk. Analysts broadly maintain a bullish stance on US equities driven by AI and technological innovation, though near-term volatility is expected. Gold retains upside bias despite the hawkish Fed, and structural demand for commodities from AI buildout is noted.

Fed Chair Warsh signals unwavering commitment to 2% inflation, stoking rate-hike expectations.
Bank of America and Deutsche Bank project multiple rate hikes in 2026, with BNP Paribas seeing risk of a July start.
RBC sees US equities handling moderate hikes, supported by strong earnings and AI tailwinds.
Iran-US peace talks increase crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices lower.
UK PM Starmer resigns; Andy Burnham's likely succession raises fiscal policy questions for gilt markets.
Nouriel Roubini declares a multi-decade tech innovation boom, reinforcing US exceptionalism.
Morgan Stanley retains an upside bias on gold, citing structural central bank buying.
Cantor Fitzgerald warns of near-term equity consolidation due to Fed uncertainty and rising equity supply.

Ideas

Lori Calvasina Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets 6:25

US equities navigate moderate Fed hikes well

Equities can withstand a moderate amount of rate hikes. History shows that when the Fed hikes within a 100 basis point range over 12 months, stocks still deliver 13-14% returns. As long as the Fed stays within two hikes in the next six months, stocks should be OK. Strong earnings tailwinds are offsetting headwinds from P/E compression driven by higher inflation and interest rates.

Lori Calvasina Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets 12:14

Semiconductors at peak upward revisions, monitor

Semiconductor upward revisions have reached peak levels, historically seen near cycle tops. While sometimes they can stay at these levels for years, it is a risk factor and many AI-name investors are considering looking for other opportunities. This warrants monitoring rather than aggressive positioning.

Jordan Rochester Head of Strategy 33:11

UK gilts face fiscal risk, watch developments

The UK political shift toward Andy Burnham raises the likelihood of looser fiscal policy, which could pressure gilts. However, candidates are likely to pledge respect for fiscal rules, limiting a Liz Truss-style selloff. The market already moved last week; the key risk is if Ed Miliband becomes chancellor, triggering a bigger selloff. For now, gilts face fiscal headwinds but not a crash.

Jim Reid Head of Global Macro, Deutsche Bank 53:46

US data points to two rate hikes

The underlying economic data has looked more in line with a rate hike than a cut for some time. The hot demand-side economy, not just supply shocks, is driving inflation. The Fed's recent hawkish press conference supports the central scenario of two rate increases this year, likely in September and December, pushing yields higher.

Jim Reid Head of Global Macro, Deutsche Bank 61:06

Hawkish Fed supports US dollar

A more hawkish Fed will underpin the US dollar, even though some global forces lean the other way. Overall, dollar strength is likely to be sustained in this environment.

Nouriel Roubini Chairman, Roubini Macro Associates 92:03

Tech innovation boom drives US equity rally

We are in the greatest era of technological innovation in history, encompassing AI, semiconductors, robotics, fusion energy, quantum, defense tech, and more. This will drive potential growth from 2% to 4% by decade's end. The tech boom is the dominant driver of the economy and equity markets, making US exceptionalism and tech stocks a powerful long position.

Seema Shah Chief Global Strategist, Principal Asset Management 103:37

Overweight US large caps and Asia equities

The portfolio is overweight US large caps and Asia, while staying cautious on Europe. The US is favored due to the AI capex boom and strong earnings; Asia benefits from supply-chain positioning. Europe still needs to show evidence of joining secular forces like defense and AI infrastructure before fuller allocation.

Amy Gower Metals & Mining Commodities Strategist, Morgan Stanley 114:31

Gold upside bias on central bank buying

Gold retains an upside bias. De-escalation in the Middle East removes a headwind, but a more hawkish Fed poses a challenge, especially for ETF demand. However, central bank buying has structurally shifted higher and will re-engage if de-escalation continues, supporting gold's path higher even if the road is bumpier.

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This Bloomberg Markets video, published June 22, 2026, features Lori Calvasina, Jordan Rochester, Jim Reid, Nouriel Roubini, Seema Shah, Amy Gower discussing SPY, SMH, UKGILT, TLT, US Dollar Index (DXY), QQQ, MSCI Asia ex Japan, XAU. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Lori Calvasina, Jordan Rochester, Jim Reid, Nouriel Roubini, Seema Shah, Amy Gower · Tickers: SPY, SMH, UKGILT, TLT, US Dollar Index (DXY), QQQ, MSCI Asia ex Japan, XAU