John Authers

Speaker states the ceasefire news is "very surprising" and if true, "you would expect the big falls in oil prices to continue." He directly links the Strait reopening to "much cheaper oil." A ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would release Iran's primary economic leverage, allow for the restocking of global oil inventories, and reverse the war premium priced into the market. Direction is SHORT because the fundamental bullish catalyst (supply blockade) is being removed, leading to a sharp downward repricing. The ceasefire breaks down, Iran does not allow safe passage, or the physical damage to infrastructure is worse than expected, limiting supply.