SpaceX Shares Surge, US & Iran Prepare for Deal Signing | The Opening Trade 6/16/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗ | June 16, 2026 at 10:47 | 1:36:12 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Gautam — Multi-asset portfolio manager, Maggi Investment Management

Mark Cudmore — Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist

Eric Lonergan — Head of discretionary macro, Calibrate Partners

Charlie Wells — Bloomberg Reporter

Emily Ashworth — Head of energy research, Standard Chartered Bank

Tom Mackenzie — Anchor, Bloomberg

Skyler Montgomery Koning — Macro Strategist

Summary

Markets digest the US-Iran interim peace deal and Trump's claim that the Strait of Hormuz will be fully open by Friday, though allies are skeptical. China retail sales slump to pandemic-era lows, highlighting a K-shaped recovery. The Bank of Japan hikes rates to 1% for the first time since 1995, while SpaceX shares continue their meteoric rise after the blockbuster IPO. Guests discuss implications for energy prices, global bonds, EM equities, and tech supply chains.

US-Iran interim peace deal expected to be signed Friday; Strait of Hormuz reopening faces skepticism
G7 allies question Trump's timeline and demand full details on de-mining and Iran sanctions relief
China retail sales drop for first time since pandemic, exposing consumer weakness and housing market declines
BOJ raises benchmark rate to 1%, highest since 1995, and tapers bond buying only modestly
SpaceX stock adds another 6% in premarket trading, market cap approaching $2.6 trillion
Qatar expects to restore 50% LNG output a month after Strait reopens, 80% within two months
Guests favor Indian and Indonesian equities, long long-end bonds, and ASML; avoid Hong Kong stocks and global bonds
Fed meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh expected to debate AI-driven disinflation versus near-term inflation risks

Ideas

Eric Lonergan Head of discretionary macro, Calibrate Partners 26:35

Bearish global bonds on Japan reflation

Japan's structural shift since 2021 is the most profound among major economies, with nominal GDP up 23% and underlying inflation running at 2.2-2.8%. This has been driving the bear market in global bonds, and if Japanese bonds remain in a bear market, global bonds will stay under pressure.

Eric Lonergan Head of discretionary macro, Calibrate Partners 34:46

ASML benefits from SpaceX semiconductor ambition

ASML is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the SpaceX IPO because Elon Musk's ambition to 5x global semiconductor supply directly increases demand for ASML's lithography equipment. The company represents great European technology exposure.

Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 41:27

Expect steeper yield curves on sticky inflation

The central bank response to the oil shock will be to look through the supply-side inflation, making front-end rates less hawkish. However, the inflation impulse itself will not disappear, leading to steeper yield curves and stickier long-end yields.

Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 41:53

Avoid Hong Kong equities, Chinese consumer weak

Hong Kong stocks have been trading appallingly amid global equity euphoria, reflecting deep negative sentiment toward the Chinese consumer. China lacks the wealth effect and consumer comfort seen in the US, making the Hong Kong market globally worrying.

Gautam Multi-asset portfolio manager, Maggi Investment Management 52:01

Indonesia equities attractive on structural growth

Indonesia has lagged, faced pressure from higher oil prices, but now with Strait of Hormuz reopening and structural growth drivers, valuations are improved and it offers relative opportunity. Energy-importing EM countries with good structural growth look attractive tactically.

Gautam Multi-asset portfolio manager, Maggi Investment Management 52:48

Buy India index on improved valuations

India historically a darling for growth, valuations have much improved after recent underperformance, corporate and aggregate earnings growth remains robust. At these levels you can buy the index.

Gautam Multi-asset portfolio manager, Maggi Investment Management 53:15

Long US 30-year bonds for high yields

US 30-year yields at 5% offer attractive real returns and good odds of beating inflation over the long term. The trauma of past bond losses has pushed term premia too high, creating a big opportunity in buying the long end and playing yield curve normalization.

Gautam Multi-asset portfolio manager, Maggi Investment Management 55:10

Long UK gilts, yields to fall 50bp

The UK government bond market offers value across the curve. The market is pricing in rate hikes that are unlikely to materialize, and yields could be 50 basis points lower within weeks or months as the BOE eventually cuts.

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815 Money Talk (815머니톡) · Jun 16

This Bloomberg Markets video, published June 16, 2026, features Eric Lonergan, Mark Cudmore, Gautam discussing Global sovereign bonds, ASML, US Yield Curve Steepener, Hong Kong equities, Indonesia equities, India Equities, US long-dated government bonds, UKGILT. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Eric Lonergan, Mark Cudmore, Gautam · Tickers: Global sovereign bonds, ASML, US Yield Curve Steepener, Hong Kong equities, Indonesia equities, India Equities, US long-dated government bonds, UKGILT