Tom Mackenzie

OpenAI is finalizing a funding round valuing it over $100B. Strategic investors include Nvidia, Microsoft, and SoftBank. The company plans to spend "trillions" on Capex for data centers. This valuation validates the continued capital expenditure cycle for AI infrastructure. The strategic backers (NVDA, MSFT, SFTBY) not only own equity upside but are the primary recipients of this Capex spend (chips and cloud compute). LONG. The "picks and shovels" trade remains the safest way to play the AI infrastructure build-out. Regulatory scrutiny on big tech investments or a sudden deceleration in AI model scaling laws.

"Anthropic... hitting a snag... trying to put a guard rail to stop it to be used for... mass surveillance... or autonomous weapon systems. The Pentagon seems to be pushing back hard... opens the door for OpenAI, Gemini or Grok to get a piece of the action." The Department of Defense has a mandate for lethal/surveillance AI. If Anthropic refuses on ethical grounds, the massive government contracts will flow to competitors who are willing to comply (OpenAI/Microsoft, Google/Gemini, xAI). The Pentagon views ethical restrictions as a "supply chain risk." LONG the "compliant" AI providers (GOOGL, MSFT) and private equity exposure to SpaceX/xAI. AVOID Anthropic-linked vehicles for defense exposure. Public backlash against "killer AI" developers; changes in Pentagon procurement policy.

SoftBank swinging to profit; "Central to that was that stake... in OpenAI... gains from OpenAI on that bet around $20 billion." SoftBank is effectively a proxy for pre-IPO OpenAI exposure. As OpenAI's valuation climbs (and Anthropic's $350B valuation sets a comp), SoftBank's NAV expands. Long as an AI proxy. Tech valuation crash; SoftBank's other holdings (ARM) underperforming.

The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, announced after failed peace talks, means any Iranian exports and vessels that paid tolls to Iran could be blocked, while other traffic faces risks from mines or proximity to Iran. This leads the oil market to conclude that less product will exit the Gulf, reducing physical availability and supporting elevated prices.

The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, announced after failed peace talks, means any Iranian exports and vessels that paid tolls to Iran could be blocked, while other traffic faces risks from mines or proximity to Iran. This leads the oil market to conclude that less product will exit the Gulf, reducing physical availability and supporting elevated prices.

The US dollar is "really outperforming" and is "the place where people are scurrying to put their cash," up 2-2.4% since the war broke out. In a flight-to-safety scenario amid war and stagflation concerns, the dollar is the preferred liquidity and haven asset. LONG as the clear relative strength winner and primary beneficiary of risk-off capital flows. A decisive geopolitical de-escalation that triggers a broad risk-on rally and dollar selloff.

Netflix dropped its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery. Investors cheered the decision (stock rallied) because it signals financial discipline. Netflix is choosing not to engage in a bidding war or acquire legacy linear TV assets that could drag down its pure-play streaming multiple. LONG NFLX (Reward for restraint). Subscriber growth slows without new content libraries.

Netflix's exit clears the way for Paramount to acquire Warner Bros. With the biggest competitor out of the way, Paramount has a clearer path to regulatory approval and deal consummation. LONG PARA (Deal probability increased). Regulatory blockage; deal terms deteriorate.

HSBC reported a profit beat, highest bonus pool in a decade, and is shifting to a performance-based ("eat what you kill") culture. The bank is successfully executing a turnaround, focusing on wealth management and its Hong Kong franchise. The culture shift suggests improved operational efficiency and competitiveness with Wall Street peers. LONG. The stock is responding positively to the restructuring and capital return promises. Geopolitical tensions between the West and China/Hong Kong.

"Anthropic... hitting a snag... trying to put a guard rail to stop it to be used for... mass surveillance... or autonomous weapon systems. The Pentagon seems to be pushing back hard... opens the door for OpenAI, Gemini or Grok to get a piece of the action." The Department of Defense has a mandate for lethal/surveillance AI. If Anthropic refuses on ethical grounds, the massive government contracts will flow to competitors who are willing to comply (OpenAI/Microsoft, Google/Gemini, xAI). The Pentagon views ethical restrictions as a "supply chain risk." LONG the "compliant" AI providers (GOOGL, MSFT) and private equity exposure to SpaceX/xAI. AVOID Anthropic-linked vehicles for defense exposure. Public backlash against "killer AI" developers; changes in Pentagon procurement policy.

Unilever stock up ~8% on a Q4 sales beat and a €1.5bn share buyback. In a volatile macro environment (tariffs/AI churn), capital is rotating into defensive Consumer Staples that demonstrate pricing power and shareholder returns. LONG Unilever. Input cost inflation returning.

CEO Roland Busch says "industrial demand is off the charts... huge backlog, in fact, for the build out of datacenters." While tech companies fight over chips, the physical infrastructure (electrification, cooling, building management) is the bottleneck. Siemens is a "pick and shovel" play on the physical construction of AI data centers. Long on infrastructure demand. Global industrial slowdown outside of the data center sector.