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14:45
Apr 16
Apr 16
GOLD
DBC
WTI
SPY
▾
Hold gold and commodities for diversification.
Traditional finance training has taught that gold and commodities are terrible assets, but they are storeholds of wealth and provide diversification in environments where stocks and bonds do poorly. Investors should hold them in their portfolios to prepare for higher inflation and conflict environments, as seen in 2022 and again in March 2026.
GOLD LONG
DBC LONG
WTI LONG
Be cautious on the S&P 500 rally.
The recent rally in the S&P 500 is a 99.9 percentile event driven by deleveraging and hopes for peace, but it is not persistent. The market is pricing in a benign outcome from the war, but there is a non-zero probability of re-escalation. Investors should be prudent and cautious, and not leg into the rally at these levels.
SPY AVOID
14:45
Apr 14
Apr 14
WTI
BRENT
MOO
SOYB
CANE
▾
Oil supply disruption keeps prices high.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis has caused a major oil supply disruption, tightening the market and leading to high spot prices, backwardation in futures, and prolonged elevated prices due to logistical challenges and sustained demand.
WTI LONG
BRENT LONG
Fertilizer shortages from gas supply issues.
Fertilizer production in the Middle East is hit because it relies on natural gas, which is in short supply due to the Strait closure, leading to high prices and reduced availability, especially during planting season.
MOO LONG
Energy costs push up food commodity prices.
Higher energy prices are driving up food commodity prices through biofuel links and production costs; for example, soybean oil, sugar, and cotton have seen price increases due to ethanol production and synthetic fiber substitution.
SOYB LONG
CANE LONG
BAL LONG
Copper demand from energy transition supports prices.
Copper shows resilience due to supply tightness and strong demand from the energy transition, such as electrification and data centers; it bounced off the 200-day moving average, indicating underlying support and potential for a long-term bull market.
COPPER LONG
Broad commodity ETFs for long-term exposure.
For investors new to commodities, starting with broad exposure through commodity ETFs is advisable due to the long-term bull market and sector rotation; the Bloomberg Commodity Index has shown strong returns.
DBC LONG
Diesel and jet fuel shortages raise prices.
Middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel are in short supply because Middle East crude oil, ideal for refining these products, is not reaching refineries, driving prices up significantly in Europe and Asia.
CRAK LONG
CRAK LONG
Aluminium supply shortage from energy issues.
Aluminium is energy-intensive, and production in the Middle East is affected by the Strait closure, leading to short supply and price increases.
JJU LONG
13:00
Apr 12
Apr 12
WTI
REMX
IGV
VIX
ALTCOINS
▾
US energy strength provides geopolitical leverage.
The US has a strategic strength in energy, specifically oil, which gives it leverage in geopolitical negotiations with China, especially as the price of oil in Asia is significantly higher than WTI crude. This energy strength is a key part of the competition for AI supremacy and economic dominance.
WTI LONG
China's rare earth dominance is a key strength.
China has a stranglehold on rare earths and solar power, which gives it significant leverage in the global economy. This control over critical inputs became a game-changer in trade relations, and it represents a key strength for China in the fight for AI and economic supremacy.
REMX WATCH
Software and Mag 7 are dead assets.
Software and the Mag 7 are a dead asset class that will not provide future growth returns. As AI disrupts everything and growth needs shift, these assets will not bounce back, making room for other assets like Bitcoin to outperform.
IGV AVOID
Long VIX as a hedge until 30.
Long VIX as a hedge against long positions until the VIX gets up to 30 on some of the later contracts, as the market is in a repricing phase with expected volatility.
VIX LONG
AI destroys all but the strongest moats.
AI is a disruptive force that will destroy any business or asset that cannot build a sustainable moat. The only reliable moats are religion, gold, and Bitcoin, making other innovations and narratives, including most altcoins and software companies, unreliable long-term investments.
ALTCOINS AVOID
Bitcoin will decouple and outperform after crisis.
Bitcoin is the chosen store of value inside the digital economy, with a great Sharpe ratio. It will be the asset of choice for returns when traditional growth assets like software and the Mag 7 fail, and it will decouple and rally the hardest after a liquidity crisis and subsequent government rescue, especially as stablecoin volumes and market cap explode, providing new infrastructure.
BTC LONG
14:59
Apr 09
Apr 09
SILVER
XLF
TLT
SIL
BTC
▾
Speaker explicitly stated silver has broken a 50-year price range and could reach $300-$500 by summer due to monetary factors, technical breakout, and demand from solar production. Breakout from long-term compression, coupled with money supply growth (M2) and persistent supply-demand deficits, leads to a tantrum-like surge into a new reality. LONG because of high upside potential from overcompensation after decades of suppression, with speed typical of such market emergences. If monetary conditions tighten abruptly or demand for solar/silver falters unexpectedly.
SILVER LONG
Speaker pointed out relative weakness in the financial sector (e.g., XLF vs. S&P), with breakdowns in Visa and Mastercard, indicating underlying credit problems and anemic performance. Financial sector is core to the economy; technical weakness on spread charts reflects embedded errors from easy money, signaling systemic risks not widely watched. AVOID because the sector is vulnerable and likely to underperform, posing a hidden risk amid broader market topping. If central bank interventions or regulatory actions stabilize the sector quickly.
XLF AVOID
Speaker described 30-year T-bond futures as "sick," with yields pressing up and prices depressed despite Fed buying, indicating potential panic and a bigger crisis than 2008. Long-term bond market weakness reflects deeper government debt issues; momentum breakdown suggests further price declines as yields remain high. SHORT on bond prices due to ongoing anemic performance and risk of a debt crisis unfolding. If the Fed aggressively expands bond purchases or cuts rates, driving yields down.
TLT SHORT
Speaker said the silver miners ETF (SIL) has broken out versus gold miners (GDX) on spread charts, favoring silver miners for outperformance. Silver's bullish breakout implies miners will benefit; technicals show SIL is historically undervalued relative to the metal and will catch up. LONG because silver miners are dirt cheap compared to silver and poised to outperform gold miners amid the metals bull market. If silver price correction is deeper than expected, hurting miner profitability.
SIL LONG
Speaker stated Bitcoin is in a congestion pattern around $16k-$18k after a sharp drop, not a bottom, and may roll over again through $60k. Momentum factors showed vulnerability prior to the drop; speculative action has synced with NASDAQ, indicating further downside as the "dream" fades. SHORT because it's not a monetary alternative and likely to decline further after the congestion phase. If Bitcoin breaks out above the congestion zone, invalidating the bearish momentum structure.
BTC SHORT
Speaker said oil is in a bull market but overbought due to geopolitical headlines; advises waiting for a selloff to around $80 before buying. Oil lagged the broader commodity complex initially, now surged on news, so late buyers may get "gut kicked," creating a better entry point after correction. WATCH for a correction to join the bull market, as current prices are not optimal for entry. If geopolitical tensions escalate further, driving prices higher without a significant correction.
WTI WATCH
14:45
Apr 07
Apr 07
GOLD
▾
Jeff Christian
Managing Partner, CPM Group
medium-term to long-term, as Christian forecasts higher prices extending into 2026 and possibly 2027, with a likely rise in the latter part of 2026.
Jeffrey Christian explicitly stated that gold's bull run is not over and "it's going to go another leg higher," citing that despite recent pullbacks, prices remain at record highs and the underlying economic and political issues driving demand have worsened. Investment demand for gold is fueled by investor concerns about global economic and political stability, which are deteriorating, leading to sustained or increased buying from a broad base of investors, including record physical purchases. Direction is LONG because the fundamental drivers of gold demand are strong and persistent, with expectations of higher prices driven by ongoing uncertainties and potential crises. A significant improvement in global economic conditions or geopolitical stability could reduce safe-haven demand, limiting price appreciation.
GOLD LONG
14:00
Apr 05
Apr 05
GOLD
▾
Steven Van Metre stated that gold is not rising despite increased volatility, which is unusual, and suggested forced selling—such as from early 401k redemptions—could be causing this. If consumers are financially stressed and need liquidity, they may sell gold to avoid tax penalties on retirement accounts, creating downward pressure on gold prices. This setup warrants caution and monitoring, as gold might experience a short-term drop despite bullish long-term parallels, making it a volatile asset to watch. If forced selling does not materialize or if strong demand from other drivers (e.g., central banks) supports gold, the expected drop may not occur.
GOLD WATCH
13:45
Apr 02
Apr 02
GOLD
SILVER
XLB
▾
Jeff Clark states that gold corrections are normal in bull markets, with historical averages of 10-12%, and the current ~16% pullback does not signal the end of the bull market. He cites multiple potential catalysts for higher prices, including recession, money printing, lower interest rates, and geopolitical tensions, while central bank buying provides support. LONG because macro and fundamental factors align for continued bullish momentum, with the bull market still early in its typical cycle. If gold breaks key technical levels or expected catalysts fail to materialize, such as sustained rate hikes or reduced central bank demand.
GOLD LONG
Clark notes silver is more volatile than gold due to its smaller market size and has experienced a deeper correction, but he sees this as a buying opportunity. Silver tends to follow gold's direction but with amplified moves; the sell-off has opened attractive entry points for investors. LONG because the silver bull run is expected to resume, leveraging volatility for potential gains, and Clark has recommended buying specific silver stocks. Further downside if gold weakens or if industrial demand for silver disappoints.
SILVER LONG
Clark is bullish on gold and silver mining stocks, has been aggressively buying during the correction, and highlights their high margins (over 60% for producers). Mining stocks mirror gold and silver prices but are more volatile; they are undervalued relative to broader equities (e.g., NASDAQ ratio), and potential sector rotation could drive inflows. LONG due to attractive valuations, high profitability, and expected investor migration from weakening broad markets into the mining sector. If gold and silver prices decline further, mining stocks could face amplified losses due to operational leverage.
XLB LONG
14:45
Mar 31
Mar 31
BRENT
LNG
EEM
▾
Speaker explicitly states Brent at $115 is "too low for what's going on" and a price of "$130 minimum is justified." The historic supply shock from the Strait of Hormuz closure (~6 mb/d net loss) cannot be quickly offset. The physical tightness has not yet reached Western markets, and prices must rise high enough to destroy the necessary demand to balance the market. Current prices do not reflect the severity of the structural deficit, implying significant upside as the physical shortage manifests globally. A swift, durable resolution to the conflict and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
BRENT LONG
Qatar declared force majeure on LNG contracts after an attack on its facility, with the CEO stating it could mean a 17% loss of Qatari LNG export capacity for up to five years. The attack was part of the regional conflict. Damage to major liquefaction infrastructure is not quickly repairable, removing a significant chunk of global LNG supply for an extended period. This represents a structural, long-duration supply shock to the global LNG market, warranting close monitoring for sustained price impacts and supply chain dislocations. Faster-than-expected repair of the damaged facilities or a rapid de-escalation of the conflict preventing further attacks.
LNG WATCH
Speaker states emerging markets and the global south "will bear the vast brunt of this" and that high energy prices could "morph from a consumer crisis to a full-blown fiscal crisis and government bankruptcies." These economies are highly price-sensitive and often subsidize fuel. Sustained high oil prices will force an impossible choice between passing on costs (causing severe demand destruction and social unrest) or maintaining subsidies (worsening fiscal deficits and sovereign debt sustainability). The energy crisis poses a direct and disproportionate threat to the economic and fiscal stability of emerging markets. A rapid and sustained collapse in oil prices due to conflict resolution or a deeper-than-expected global recession.
EEM AVOID
13:00
Mar 29
Mar 29
XLE
XLB
XLK
META
AMZN
▾
The speaker stated we are entering a "decade" of underinvestment in the hardware needed for AI, and energy prices are going up. Infinite AI demand requires massive energy for compute and infrastructure, but supply has been underinvested, creating a structural supply-demand imbalance. Long energy minerals due to sustained, rising demand from AI infrastructure build-out against constrained supply. A severe global economic slowdown reduces overall energy demand, or alternative energy sources scale faster than expected.
XLE LONG
The speaker cited copper and silver prices "going through the roof" and stated there is not enough copper or silver for AI demand. AI infrastructure requires vast amounts of metals for wiring, electronics, and other components, creating a structural shortage against finite supply. Long non-energy minerals due to a persistent supply-demand deficit driven by the physical build-out of AI. Technological innovation finds material substitutes or a recession crushes industrial demand.
XLB LONG
The speaker stated to "short, anything built on code" and called software a "dead asset" that will face a structural headwind. AI is directly disruptive to software business models by automating tasks and reducing the need for certain software, leading to multiple compression even if earnings grow. Avoid the technology services (software) sector due to a broken growth narrative and structural disruption from AI. Software companies successfully pivot and monetize AI tools faster than they are disrupted by them.
XLK LONG
The speaker explicitly named Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft as "hyperscalers" and stated they are "going to have a really hard time." These companies are "built on code" and are the primary spenders on AI infrastructure, facing massive capital expenditure, potential margin pressure, and disruption from the very AI they are funding. Avoid these stocks due to their dual exposure as legacy software/platform businesses and capital-intensive AI infrastructure builders in a disruptive period. Their cloud and advertising businesses prove more resilient than expected, or they achieve dominant monetization of new AI services.
META AVOID
AMZN AVOID
GOOGL AVOID
MSFT AVOID
The speaker stated he is "focused on Bitcoin" because "money is going to chase returns" and returns will "come from that asset class." In an environment of multiple compression and disappointing returns in traditional fiat assets (equities, credit), capital will rotate to alternative stores of value with asymmetric return potential. Long Bitcoin as a beneficiary of capital rotation away from compressed traditional assets. A sharp, prolonged risk-off market event causes correlated selling across all speculative assets, including crypto.
BTC LONG
14:45
Mar 26
Mar 26
XTN
XLI
USO
▾
The speaker is "incredibly bullish" on trucking, citing re-industrialization driving higher demand and policy-driven tightening of driver supply. The truckload rejection index has surged to 14% (from 4% a year ago), indicating carriers are gaining pricing power. Proposed immigration laws could remove ~200k drivers, structurally reducing capacity. The confluence of rising industrial demand and a constrained supply of drivers creates a favorable setup for significant rate increases and operating leverage for trucking companies, making the sector investable. A severe economic recession that collapses goods demand volume, overriding the supply constraints.
XTN LONG
Flatbed trucking demand is "on fire" with rejection rates as high as 50% (vs. ~4% a year ago for the broader market), decoupled from the weak housing market. This surge is driven by industrial activity in the Midwest (steel, aluminum, heavy machinery) related to manufacturing plant construction, data centers, and energy infrastructure, which shows up in freight data months before other indicators. The flatbed segment is a leading, high-confidence indicator of a burgeoning US industrial renaissance, implying strong demand for carriers specializing in this equipment. A sudden halt or reversal in industrial capex and construction spending.
XLI LONG
The speaker states the current oil price impact on trucking is a "non-event" and that larger carriers can make more money when fuel prices are higher due to fuel surcharge passthrough mechanisms. Fuel surcharges mitigate ~80% of the cost impact for large, contract-based carriers. The consumer impact (~$350/year more for gasoline) is seen as insufficient to significantly curb goods consumption volume. While a headline risk, current oil price levels do not constitute a material bearish headwind for the trucking industry or the broader goods economy; the impact is neutral to slightly positive for large carriers. A sustained breakout above $140 WTI, which would test the stated pain threshold for the US goods economy.
USO NEUTRAL
14:45
Mar 24
Mar 24
BTC
ETH
▾
Geoffrey Kendrick
Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Standard Chartered Bank
medium-term (end of 2026) and long-term (2030).
Speaker explicitly states he is "sticking with 100K forecasts for Bitcoin by the end of this year" and later provides a long-term (2030) forecast of $500K. The thesis is supported by continued ETF inflows returning, the institutionalization of the asset class bringing in new capital, and digital assets looking through near-term macro noise (like potential rate hikes from an oil shock) to a medium-term cutting cycle. LONG due to explicit price targets representing ~50% upside from current levels by year-end and significant long-term appreciation. A more severe oil price shock that forces sustained hawkish central bank policy, negatively impacting risk assets. Also, failure of regulatory clarity to further institutionalize the asset class.
BTC LONG
Geoffrey Kendrick
Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Standard Chartered Bank
medium-term (end of 2026) and long-term (2030).
Speaker states "ETH outperforms now" and forecasts the ETH/BTC cross to rise from ~3% to 4% by end-2026 (implying $4K ETH if BTC is $100K). His 2030 target is $40,000 ETH. Outperformance thesis is based on TradFi and institutional builders preferring Ethereum's Layer 1 for initial deployments (e.g., BlackRock's BUIDL) due to its security and reliability. Increased on-chain activity from stablecoins, tokenization (money market funds, equities), and other use cases will drive fees and demand for ETH. LONG for significant absolute upside and explicit outperformance versus Bitcoin. Failure of the predicted tokenization wave to materialize, or a shift in institutional preference to other Layer 1 or Layer 2 networks that reduces Ethereum's activity capture.
ETH LONG
18:45
Mar 20
Mar 20
ETH
PUMP
HYPE
LIT
PENDLE
▾
Martin sold 56% of ETH and 63-64% of SOL, stating they have high premiums, no near-term catalysts, and ETH trades on narrative rather than fees, while SOL's high fee multiples may not hold in tough times. With rising oil prices and macro uncertainty, investors may ignore infrastructure narratives, leading to underperformance. AVOID due to lack of immediate drivers and vulnerability to macro headwinds. If macro conditions improve or new catalysts emerge, ETH and SOL could outperform.
ETH AVOID
SOL AVOID
Martin held PUMP due to resilient revenues and a high buyback multiple ($500M annual buybacks on a $1.3B market cap). Significant buyback pressure relative to market cap provides price support and potential upside regardless of market conditions. LONG because the buyback multiple indicates strong fundamental value capture. If revenues decline or buybacks are reduced, the thesis weakens.
PUMP LONG
Martin held HYPE and LIGHTER, perpetuals protocols that can benefit from increased volatility, noting HYPE's real-world asset volumes surpassed crypto volumes. Even in down markets, volatility drives trading volumes and revenues for perpetuals exchanges, supporting token value. LONG due to revenue resilience and growth potential from volatility. If volatility decreases or competition intensifies, revenues could drop.
HYPE LONG
LIT LONG
Martin sold all positions in COW and PENDLE, citing lack of significant buyback pressure for COW and low revenues for PENDLE due to depressed yields and trading volumes. In a risk-off macro environment, tokens without strong buybacks or with business dependencies on market sentiment are likely to underperform. AVOID because fundamental weaknesses make them unattractive holdings near-term. If market sentiment improves or buybacks increase, these tokens could recover.
PENDLE AVOID
COW AVOID
Martin held TESLA for its AI and robotics growth, specifically robo-taxis entering production and Optimus humanoid robots with improved capabilities. Tesla's advancements in autonomous vehicles and robotics may drive stock price appreciation independent of economic cycles. LONG due to long-term growth drivers and product execution. Economic downturn could affect demand, or execution delays might slow growth.
TSLA LONG
18:45
Mar 19
Mar 19
XLK
▾
The speaker argued the $127 trillion global equity market will 100% tokenize for 24/7 trading. This will require stablecoins as the settlement asset, creating an "incredible flywheel" that increases stablecoin supply and fuels Layer-1 ecosystems and DeFi. The next evolution of markets is tokenization, which necessitates 24/7, global trading rails. Crypto infrastructure (stablecoins, smart contract platforms) is the only viable settlement and operational layer for this shift. LONG because tokenization is framed as an inevitable, massive-scale adoption driver that directly monetizes into the core crypto stack (stablecoins, L1s, DeFi). Traditional finance develops a competing, non-crypto native tokenization and settlement system that bypasses public blockchains and stablecoins.
XLK LONG
18:45
Mar 18
Mar 18
BTC
TLT
▾
Speaker states Bitcoin is a "great fundamental story and an attractive valuation" at ~5% of gold's market cap, predicts $1M BTC between 2030-2035, and cites Morgan Stanley's ETF launch as a major bullish institutional signal. In a macro environment of perpetual inflation, deficit spending, and potential capital controls, traditional assets (real estate, gold, equities, bonds) are structurally flawed or overvalued. Bitcoin's fixed supply, portability, and growing institutional adoption as a persistent portfolio allocation make it a superior store of value. LONG due to compelling macro hedge characteristics, massive relative valuation gap to gold, and accelerating institutional adoption embedding it as a core asset. A collapse in institutional adoption narrative; severe global regulatory crackdown.
BTC LONG
Speaker states bonds "have been terrible... and atrocious from a real return perspective," and are "unlikely to get better given political incentives, social incentives, and that all the appetite there is for deficit spending, entitlement spending, [and] all those big print catalysts." The political and social imperative for continued deficit spending and the high likelihood of a future "big print" fiscal event will perpetuate currency debasement, making the nominal returns of bonds insufficient to preserve purchasing power. AVOID because the structural macro environment is hostile to bondholders, offering poor real returns. A sudden, sustained shift to fiscal austerity and monetary restraint.
TLT AVOID
18:45
Mar 17
Mar 17
SOL
▾
Mason states Solana is making important strides on fundamental metrics, leading all chains in adjusted stablecoin transaction volume for the first time in Feb 2024, indicating high capital velocity and real usage for payments and smaller-scale transactions. This dominance in a core financial use case (payments) suggests growing adoption and a divergence in use case from Ethereum, which still dominates larger institutional/capital markets flows. The strong and improving fundamental data contrasts with weak price action, presenting a potential opportunity as the market may start to value Layer 1s based more on usage and transaction revenue. Broader crypto market correlation continues to suppress price despite strong chain-specific fundamentals.
SOL WATCH
18:43
Mar 16
Mar 16
ETH
BTC
GLD
IREN
CLSK
▾
I am hyper bearish on ETH. It has pivoted a thousand times. If you look at the code base, it's a labyrinth of code. Ethereum's reliance on Layer 2 and Layer 3 solutions effectively reverts transactions to centralized databases, stripping away the core benefits of being on-chain. While it currently retains developer liquidity, its technical foundation is flawed compared to purpose-built chains. AVOID. The technical debt and high gas fees make it a fundamentally weak long-term hold despite its current first-mover advantage in liquidity. Developers and liquidity may never migrate away from Ethereum, cementing its status as the default financial rail regardless of its clunky code.
ETH AVOID
Whether Bitcoin goes to 25 or 55, the reason that I think it's fundamentally worth it is because I understand what the tech gives capacity and ability to do. Bitcoin provides a trustless, permissionless financial escape hatch for individuals facing high inflation or hostile regimes. As global monetary systems show weakness, this utility creates a hard floor and long-term appreciation for the asset, independent of short-term price action. LONG. It is a 10 to 20-year generational wealth preservation asset that bypasses traditional financial controls. Quantum computing advancements could theoretically break the Elliptical Curve Cryptography (ECC) used in Bitcoin wallets, exposing early wallets to theft.
BTC LONG
I don't hold any gold candidly... Gold is hard to travel with and I've got like 5% of a doomer in me. In a true crisis scenario, physical gold is susceptible to confiscation and is difficult to transport across borders. Furthermore, gold has an expanding supply inflation rate (1.25% to 1.35%) compared to Bitcoin's decreasing inflation rate (0.4% post-halving), making Bitcoin the superior store of value. AVOID. Capital allocated to gold for hedging purposes is better deployed into Bitcoin for enhanced security, transportability, and scarcity. A catastrophic global grid failure or internet outage would render Bitcoin inaccessible, whereas physical gold would retain its barter value.
GLD AVOID
The data centers for inference have to be really, really close to the place that you're actually going to do the inference... they're land focused and have been land focused for 15 to 20 years. Bitcoin miners that have already secured physical land and massive power contracts are perfectly positioned to pivot into AI data centers. The infrastructure required for the upcoming AGI tech boom is highly constrained by power availability, making these legacy mining assets incredibly valuable. LONG. These companies are transitioning from volatile crypto mining plays into highly lucrative, infrastructure-backed AI data center plays. The AI infrastructure build-out could face regulatory hurdles regarding power consumption, or the companies may fail to secure the necessary AI inference contracts.
IREN LONG
CLSK LONG
Anytime you dip below into the 0.8s or 0.7s, meaning that the market cap is 30% cheaper than the holdings of Bitcoin that are actually inside the company, you're buying your Bitcoin at 70% of the value. MicroStrategy acts as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy that offers traditional finance tools (like options) and international tax advantages that spot Bitcoin does not. When the stock trades at a discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV), investors can acquire Bitcoin exposure at a significant markdown while benefiting from the company's accretive share issuance strategy. LONG. It provides superior financial tooling and occasional arbitrage opportunities compared to holding spot Bitcoin directly. You are trusting a centralized actor to custody the Bitcoin, exposing you to corporate governance and counterparty risks.
MSTR LONG
14:00
Mar 15
Mar 15
SQ
KRE
JPM
C
BTC
▾
"There going to be more companies like Block who fire large swath of their workforce and they're rewarded by the markets. The stock pump 20% when you announce them. So the CEOs and management get richer if they fire all their workers and replace them from AI." Companies that aggressively adopt AI to replace back-office and knowledge workers will see immediate margin expansion. The market is currently rewarding these cost-cutting measures with higher valuations, incentivizing management teams to execute these layoffs. LONG. Tech and payment companies executing aggressive AI-driven layoffs will see short-to-medium term stock appreciation. Long-term revenue decline if the broader macroeconomic environment deteriorates due to the very job losses these companies are creating, leading to lower consumer spending on their platforms.
SQ LONG
"The Fed cannot act until we get the real market signal... the regional bank index is down 45%. There's banks that are getting smoked 15-20% every session in the United States. That's the signal." AI-driven job losses in the knowledge sector will lead to widespread consumer loan defaults. Regional banks are disproportionately exposed to these loans and lack the government backstops of larger institutions, making them highly vulnerable to a solvency crisis before the Fed is politically able to step in. SHORT. Regional banks will suffer severe drawdowns as loan defaults rise and the Fed delays intervention. The Fed intervenes earlier than expected, or AI job displacement is slower and less severe than predicted, allowing consumers to continue servicing their debts.
KRE SHORT
"Smaller banking outfits that don't have a government guarantee, that have a lot of these consumer loans as a higher percentage of their balance sheet than say a JP Morgan or a City Bank... leads people to move their money out of the small banks into JP Morgan." As regional banks face solvency issues due to consumer loan defaults, panic will set in. Depositors and investors will flee regional banks and consolidate their capital into systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) that have implicit government guarantees and more diversified balance sheets. LONG. Large money center banks will win significant market share and deposit inflows as regional banks fail. A broader systemic financial crisis drags down all equities, including large-cap banks, in a general liquidity drain before the Fed pivots.
JPM LONG
C LONG
"Bitcoin is saying there's a liquidity issue. There is this incipient banking crisis waiting to happen... That's when they have the political cover to do whatever they want, which is to print a lot of money." Bitcoin acts as a forward-looking indicator for global liquidity. While it may suffer short-term volatility during the initial market panic and banking failures, the inevitable Fed response—massive QE to bail out the banking system and unemployed voters—will dramatically debase fiat currency, sending Bitcoin significantly higher. LONG. Bitcoin is the ultimate hedge against the fiat debasement that will follow the AI-induced banking crisis. Bitcoin gets caught in a severe cross-asset liquidation event (degrossing) and suffers a massive drawdown before the Fed actually pivots to QE.
BTC LONG
14:00
Mar 14
Mar 14
ETH
SOL
SUI
HYPE
▾
I would say ETH and Salana are probably better bets than Bitcoin at this moment in time from a pure multiple basis. Ethereum and Solana are currently sitting near their 2024 lows, whereas Bitcoin is trading above its 2024 low. Because upcoming regulatory clarity will likely favor broad infrastructure platforms over niche applications, buying these major Layer 1s at cyclical support levels offers superior multiple expansion and risk-adjusted upside compared to Bitcoin. LONG ETH and SOL as foundational ecosystem bets with favorable relative valuations. Regulatory clarity could unexpectedly penalize these networks, or Bitcoin could continue to absorb all market liquidity, leaving altcoins stagnant.
ETH LONG
SOL LONG
They have a really cogent and like very thoughtful approach to how to engage on the kind of more institutional adoption. Institutional capital is the next major growth vector for crypto markets. Layer 1 networks that proactively build compliant, institution-friendly infrastructure will capture outsized inflows once regulatory frameworks are established, allowing them to steal market share from older networks. LONG SUI as an emerging Layer 1 ecosystem positioned specifically for institutional capital. The network fails to attract sufficient developer activity or user liquidity to compete with entrenched incumbents like Ethereum and Solana.
SUI LONG
I think creating trading windows where onchain rails can provide validated and verifiable truth of activity taken outside of normal windows is a very very exciting principle and big big value ad. Traditional markets are restricted by standard trading hours, leaving risk managers unable to hedge exposure during weekend geopolitical events (like trading oil during a conflict). On-chain perpetual platforms that offer 24/7 liquidity solve this massive institutional pain point, positioning them to generate massive cash flows. WATCH HYPE as a highly profitable cash-flow business pioneering out-of-hours trading for traditional assets. US regulatory agencies could crack down on decentralized perpetual exchanges, restricting access for US participants and severely limiting trading volume.
HYPE WATCH
18:45
Mar 13
Mar 13
BTC
COIN
▾
The range or the zone will be around you know 76k to 86k which is where this metric is right now. Around that I should expect we hit resistance and then a correction happens if we are still in a bare market like we are right now. The current upward price action is a relief rally driven by exhausted selling pressure (extreme unrealized losses) rather than a new wave of structural demand. Because the broader market regime is still bearish, the 1-to-3 month realized price band (76k-86k) will act as a hard ceiling where trapped short-term buyers will sell to break even. WATCH. Traders should monitor the 76k-86k resistance zone to take profits or hedge long exposure, anticipating a macro bear market rejection at those levels. If the CryptoQuant Bull Score index rapidly spikes above 60, it would signal a regime change from a bear to a bull market, likely causing BTC to break cleanly through the 76k-86k resistance.
BTC WATCH
You see this in the last few weeks how it went from really negative levels extremely negative and it went up to even is positive right now. They stopped selling basically the US and that drives prices higher relative to prices in other exchanges. The Coinbase premium flipping positive, combined with on-chain data showing Bitcoin flowing from offshore exchanges into Coinbase to capture arbitrage, indicates a resurgence of US-based spot demand. This localized spike in trading volume and liquidity directly translates to higher transaction fee revenue for Coinbase. LONG. The short-term return of US buyer appetite provides a tactical tailwind for Coinbase's core exchange business during this relief rally. In a bear market regime, positive Coinbase premiums are historically temporary. If the premium flips negative again, it signals that US demand has evaporated, removing the volume catalyst for the stock.
COIN LONG
18:45
Mar 12
Mar 12
BTC
HYPE
USO
GLD
▾
"If you assume the store of value market that's captured by gold and Bitcoin will continue to grow as it has for the last 20 years, then all that Bitcoin needs to do to become worth a million dollars is take 17% of the market." Just as the 2004 Gold ETF unlocked institutional capital and drove gold from a $2.5T to a $40T market, the recent Bitcoin ETFs will legitimize BTC for institutions. As fiat currencies debase, the total addressable market for non-sovereign stores of value expands, allowing BTC to reach $1M without needing to fully replace gold. LONG. Bitcoin is positioned for massive long-term appreciation as it takes a modest market share of an expanding global store-of-value pie. Governments stop deficit spending (unlikely), a new technological variant displaces Bitcoin for the next generation, or quantum computing breaks its cryptography.
BTC LONG
"When the US started bombing Iran... every market around the world is closed... And so what people did is they shifted onto Hyperliquid. And that's where they were trading oil." Traditional finance operates on a 5-day, limited-hour schedule, leaving them exposed to weekend geopolitical shocks. Because decentralized exchanges operate 24/7, macro hedge funds will be forced to onboard onto platforms like Hyperliquid to hedge their real-world asset exposure (like oil) during off-hours, driving massive institutional volume and user growth to the protocol. LONG. Hyperliquid has a first-mover advantage in capturing institutional weekend trading volume for tokenized real-world assets. Traditional exchanges eventually upgrade their infrastructure to offer 24/7 trading, or regulatory crackdowns prevent TradFi funds from using offshore/decentralized perpetual futures platforms.
HYPE LONG
"I think anything with relatively constrained supply can trade like a memecoin when it gets the attention economy focused on it and you have easy ways to get leverage." As traditional commodities like oil become tokenized and traded on 24/7 crypto rails, they are exposed to the crypto ecosystem's high embedded leverage and low weekend liquidity. This combination creates the perfect storm for violent, cascading liquidations and massive price gaps by the time traditional markets open on Monday. WATCH. Traditional commodity markets will experience increased volatility and "memecoin-like" squeezes due to the new dynamic of 24/7 leveraged on-chain trading. Liquidity on decentralized platforms remains too low to actually impact the global spot price of massive commodities like oil over the long term.
USO WATCH
"They're both [Bitcoin and Gold] providing the same service, which is the ability to store wealth outside of the fiat system without relying on a central bank or a government." The overarching macro environment features persistent government deficit spending, inflation, and institutional distrust. This expands the total market for hard assets. Gold is not being entirely replaced by Bitcoin; rather, both will grow in nominal terms as fiat currencies lose purchasing power. LONG. Gold remains a premier, institutionally accepted hedge against fiat debasement and geopolitical instability. Central banks drastically raise real rates and balance budgets, restoring absolute faith in fiat currencies and crushing demand for non-yielding assets.
GLD LONG
18:45
Mar 11
Mar 11
BTC
ETH
SOL
▾
"There's 30 plus trillion dollars in the financial advisor world. So even a 1% allocation from all of them is going to be absolutely massive to this space." Wealth management platforms are slowly approving spot crypto ETFs for use in model portfolios. As financial advisors systematically allocate 1-5% of client portfolios to these assets, it creates a massive, sticky structural bid. Furthermore, advisors rebalance periodically, meaning they will automatically "buy the dip" during crypto market drawdowns, providing long-term price support that the spot market previously lacked. LONG. The integration of blue-chip crypto into traditional finance portfolios via ETFs transforms BTC and ETH from purely speculative assets into structurally supported portfolio components. A severe macroeconomic recession could force advisors to liquidate risk assets across the board, or legacy "OG" crypto holders could dump spot inventory faster than ETF inflows can absorb it.
BTC LONG
ETH LONG
"The adoption from 13F filers for the Salana ETFs is actually extremely high we know 50% of the holders as of the end of December... which means a lot of institutions probably back these ETFs." High 13F ownership indicates that "smart money" (crypto hedge funds and institutional asset managers) are using the ETF wrapper to build high-conviction, long-term positions in Solana. Unlike retail-heavy assets (like XRP), institutional holders are less likely to panic-sell during volatility, providing a stronger floor for the asset's price and validating its institutional product-market fit. LONG. Solana's heavy institutional backing in the ETF market signals strong fundamental conviction, making it a premium play over retail-dominated altcoins. A portion of these 13F filings may belong to market makers (like Jane Street or Virtu) who are delta-hedged rather than directionally long, meaning the actual institutional "buy-and-hold" demand could be overstated.
SOL LONG
19:44
Mar 10
Mar 10
BTC
ETH
SOL
XRP
HYPE
▾
"I would have the same concept of like L1 as a core, maybe a couple different L1s as cores. These are the really the main networks that I have high confidence in. And then I create satellites of the L2s that are more risky." Institutions are moving away from treating all crypto as a single, highly correlated monolith. By applying traditional portfolio construction frameworks (core-satellite) to digital assets, major Layer-1 networks will receive the bulk of sticky, institutional "core" allocations, driving sustained capital inflows and reducing their historical volatility. LONG major Layer-1 networks as foundational, institutional-grade portfolio assets. A failure of institutional adoption to materialize at scale, or severe macroeconomic shocks that force institutions to liquidate their core crypto holdings.
BTC LONG
ETH LONG
SOL LONG
"Things that are worse for the dollar are going to be good for digital assets especially digital assets that can be used as transactional rails like Salana and Ripple." As geopolitical instability rises and confidence in the US dollar wanes in certain regions, capital in conflict zones actively seeks alternative, non-sovereign payment rails. Networks specifically designed for high-speed, low-cost cross-border transactions will capture this capital flight and see a surge in network utility and fee generation. LONG established transactional rail tokens serving as direct alternatives to traditional fiat payment systems. Fiat-backed stablecoins (like USDC or USDT) may capture the vast majority of this transactional volume, leaving the native network tokens with minimal value accrual.
XRP LONG
"If you want to trade like I guess oil futures or oil derivatives you can do that all weekend long if you want on a place like hyperlquid... 3 or 4% of the global volume of silver trade was on hyperlquid." Traditional financial markets close on weekends, leaving traders paralyzed and unable to hedge or react to major geopolitical events (like weekend military strikes). Decentralized perpetual exchanges solve this by offering 24/7 price discovery and liquidity, meaning they will inevitably siphon massive trading volume and market share away from legacy derivative exchanges. LONG decentralized perpetual exchanges that are successfully listing real-world assets and commodities. Aggressive regulatory crackdowns by the CFTC or SEC against unlicensed on-chain derivative platforms offering commodities to US retail traders.
HYPE LONG
18:45
Mar 09
Mar 09
SOL
JUP
BTC
HYPE
▾
I think the most surprising thing is how much divergence there is between Salana's usage and Salana's price as a token. Two billion transactions in February. Salana made like $26 million in network revenue. The market is currently pricing the asset based on macro fear and past cycle biases, ignoring its transition into a cash-flowing, high-utility infrastructure layer. Once global macro headwinds clear, the valuation will re-rate to reflect its fundamental revenue and stablecoin dominance. LONG because the fundamental business metrics are growing rapidly while the token price remains artificially depressed by external macro factors. A prolonged global macro downturn or escalating war could keep all risk assets depressed regardless of strong on-chain fundamentals.
SOL LONG
We are one of the very few tokens that does not have any kind of net new emissions coming to market for the foreseeable future. 50% of our revenues, our onchain revenues go to buybacks right now. Crypto tokens typically suffer from constant downward price pressure due to VC unlocks and airdrop emissions. By eliminating new emissions and using actual protocol revenue to aggressively buy back tokens, Jupiter is creating a deflationary supply shock that will drive the price up as retail demand returns. LONG due to a massive structural shift in tokenomics, combining high protocol revenue with aggressive buybacks and zero new supply. The complexity of adding too many products to their super-app model could alienate users, reducing overall platform volume and buyback revenue.
JUP LONG
If the economy starts to go bad then the Fed has to print, then monetary policy has to loosen which actually means more capital flowing to risk on assets like crypto. Geopolitical conflict and economic instability act as a forcing function for central bank liquidity injections. This fiat debasement directly benefits hard, capped-supply assets as investors seek hedges against inflation and currency devaluation. LONG as a macro play on inevitable central bank easing and global liquidity expansion. The Fed could choose to keep rates elevated if the war causes a severe spike in oil prices, reigniting inflation and delaying rate cuts.
BTC LONG
Hyperliquid, absolute killers. But we have Jupet coming up in the very near future, an omni chain liquidity hub that is purpose-built for order book trading of spot perps. Hyperliquid has enjoyed a dominant, uncontested position in the on-chain perpetuals market, but Jupiter is launching a direct, well-resourced competitor aimed at the exact same sophisticated trader demographic. This will likely fragment market share and compress fee revenues. WATCH to see if Hyperliquid's market share and volume take a hit once Jupiter's competing order book product goes live. Hyperliquid's user base and liquidity network effects may be too sticky, rendering Jupiter's new product unable to capture meaningful market share.
HYPE WATCH
14:00
Mar 08
Mar 08
BLK
BTC
SOL
ZEC
COIN
▾
Pal mentions "Asset management industry coming into this space," "Banks coming into this space," and the tokenization of equities, fixed income, and futures. While Pal describes the trend, the direct beneficiaries in the equity market are the infrastructure providers. BlackRock (BLK) is leading the tokenization effort (BUIDL fund), and Coinbase (COIN) provides the custody and exchange rails for these institutions. Long the "picks and shovels" of institutional adoption. Regulatory hurdles for US banks holding crypto; fee compression in the ETF/custody space.
BLK LONG
COIN LONG
Pal states that using a log regression channel based on Metcalfe's Law (network adoption), the crypto market cap is projected to reach "$100 trillion by 2032, 2034." He notes Bitcoin is now accepted as "collateral" by the traditional system. Bitcoin is the primary asset driving this regression channel. As the "pristine collateral" of this new system, it captures the majority of the store-of-value premium as institutions and banks enter the space. Long-term accumulation of Bitcoin is the safest play to capture the secular trend. Regulatory crackdowns or a breakdown in the log regression model (adoption stalls).
BTC LONG
Pal discusses "high velocity, massive use case markets" and notes that "memecoins... drove a lot of value in itself to Solana." He later emphasizes that AI agents will need rails for micropayments (sub-cent) which stablecoins cannot handle. Solana's architecture is designed for high-velocity, low-cost transactions. If AI agents and high-frequency tokenized markets (futures, equities) move on-chain, they require a high-throughput chain like Solana rather than a store-of-value chain like Bitcoin. Long Solana as the infrastructure play for high-velocity economic activity and AI agent commerce. Network outages or centralization concerns; competition from other high-performance L1s (e.g., Sui, Aptos).
SOL LONG
When discussing the "anti-rebellion" and privacy against institutions, Pal explicitly says: "Privacy... that's the other one, right? Zcash, that's a big fight to come." As the financial system becomes transparent and on-chain (tokenization), there will be a counter-demand for privacy and anonymity. Zcash is the specific asset named to capture this "rebellion" value. Long Zcash as a contrarian hedge against total financial surveillance. Severe regulatory risk (delistings) as governments generally oppose privacy coins.
ZEC LONG
14:00
Mar 07
Mar 07
COIN
BLK
CME
META
HOOD
▾
Hougan argues that Coinbase has a "unique advantage" because the hostile regulatory environment prevented natural competitors from building up. He notes, "There's no reason that Coinbase should have the market share it has... well-funded competitors were hard to come by." Usually, high margins attract competition (like Schwab vs. Fidelity). However, regulation acted as a barrier to entry, gifting Coinbase a monopoly-like position ("Regulatory Moat"). Additionally, Coinbase is integrated with Circle (stablecoins) and has "turned on stock trading," positioning it as the "super app" regulators asked for. LONG. Coinbase is the primary infrastructure beneficiary of the "everything tokenized" thesis and retains sticky market share due to high barriers to entry. Regulatory clarity could eventually lower barriers to entry, inviting cheaper competitors to erode margins.
COIN LONG
Hougan highlights that Larry Fink (CEO of BlackRock) is explicitly saying "every asset will be tokenized." BlackRock manages $10+ trillion. When the world's largest asset manager commits to a technological shift (tokenization of RWAs), they become the primary issuer and fee-collector of these new digital assets. They are driving the transition from a $20B market to a $200T market. LONG. Betting on the firm that is actively engineering the financial migration to blockchain. Institutional adoption moves slower than expected ("it always takes longer").
BLK LONG
The Chair of the CFTC stated prediction markets are acceptable, and "now the CME is building prediction markets." Prediction markets have historically been niche/crypto-native (Polymarket). The entry of a regulated, institutional giant like CME legitimizes the asset class and opens it to institutional capital, turning it into a "multi-trillion dollar market." LONG. CME captures a new revenue stream from a completely new asset class that regulators have just de-risked. Regulatory reversal or lack of liquidity in institutional prediction markets.
CME LONG
Meta is rolling out stablecoins to its massive installed user base (half the world). While they may not displace Circle (USDC) as the backend issuer, Meta will likely "carve out a decent chunk of the payments market" simply due to distribution. If stablecoins become the backend for everyday apps, Meta monetizes the transaction flow. LONG. A play on the "Agentic Economy" and mass adoption of crypto rails without users knowing they are using crypto. Meta has a history of failed crypto ventures (Libra/Diem) and burning capital on R&D.
META LONG
Hougan suggests that Meta's entry into crypto/finance is "more of a challenge to wallets... and maybe brokerage apps eventually like Robinhood." If social media giants (Meta/X) integrate seamless payments and investing (stablecoins/tokenized assets), standalone retail brokerages like Robinhood lose their "convenience" moat. WATCH (Potential Short/Avoid). The convergence of social apps and finance threatens pure-play retail brokerages. Robinhood has a loyal user base and is expanding internationally/into crypto itself, which may defend its turf.
HOOD WATCH
19:45
Mar 04
Mar 04
MS
COIN
V
PYPL
AAPL
▾
Schmidt notes that the industry is "growing up," citing that "BlackRock is here, Fidelity is here, and Morgan Stanley just came out pivoting their whole roadmap into crypto." This is no longer a retail speculation game; it is an institutional asset class. BlackRock (ETFs/Tokenization) and Morgan Stanley (Wealth Management/Custody) are positioning themselves to earn fees on the securitization and custody of digital assets for the wealthy. LONG. These incumbents will capture the "safe" yield and management fees as crypto becomes a standard portfolio allocation. continued regulatory hostility or a catastrophic failure of a major custodian that scares institutions away.
MS LONG
BLK LONG
Schmidt argues that AI agents (autonomous software) need to make payments but cannot get credit cards or bank accounts. He states stablecoins are the "perfect fit" for these micro-transactions and cross-border API calls. If AI agents proliferate, transaction volume on stablecoin rails will explode. Coinbase (via USDC partnership), PayPal (PYUSD), and Visa (integrating stablecoin settlement) are the primary regulated infrastructure providers that will capture fees from this new "machine economy" volume. LONG. These companies own the "rails" for the next generation of automated B2B/B2C payments. Regulatory crackdowns on stablecoin issuance or the development of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) that bypasses private issuers.
COIN LONG
V LONG
PYPL LONG
Schmidt highlights a portfolio company (Exo) that enables distributed inference by sharding models across local devices. He explicitly mentions using "Apple Mac Studios, Mac Minis, and iPhones" because new open-source models can run locally on high-end consumer chips. As AI models become efficient enough to run on "edge" devices (to avoid censorship or cloud costs), demand for high-performance consumer hardware with strong neural engines (like Apple Silicon) increases. Apple becomes the hardware layer for decentralized AI. LONG. Apple is the "pick and shovel" play for local/edge AI inference. Open-source models failing to catch up to closed-source giant models (OpenAI/Google), rendering local compute irrelevant.
AAPL LONG
Schmidt discusses the explosion of prediction markets (like Poly Market), noting that volume is sticky even post-election because users are trading sports and pop culture events. While Poly Market is offshore/crypto-native, the demand for "event contracts" is proving to be massive. Robinhood (HOOD) recently launched prediction markets for US customers, and DraftKings (DKNG) operates in the adjacent sports betting vertical. These regulated US entities will capture the onshore demand for this market structure. LONG. Betting on the "gamification" of financial events and the legalization of prediction markets in the US. The CFTC could ban event contracts in the US, forcing this volume back to offshore/crypto-native platforms.
HOOD LONG
DKNG LONG
15:45
Mar 03
Mar 03
TLT
USO
XLE
XLK
IGV
▾
"We are going into Quad 4 in the second quarter... the best time to be long long-term Treasuries." Quad 4 is a deflationary recession environment. As growth and inflation decelerate simultaneously, the Fed is forced to cut rates aggressively. The speaker predicts the 10-year yield could fall to 3.25% (down ~100bps). Long duration bonds are the highest conviction trade for Q2 2026. Inflation re-accelerates (staying in Quad 3) rather than cooling off.
TLT LONG
"As long as my signal says buy every damn dip in oil, I'm going to buy every damn dip in oil." The market front-ran the geopolitical escalation (US-Israel/Iran). Oil is breaking out technically, regardless of the specific news cycle. In a Quad 3 (current state) environment, energy is a top performer. Continue buying oil and energy equities on pullbacks. A sudden geopolitical resolution or demand collapse in deep Quad 4.
USO LONG
XLE LONG
"We're short what we call Moab tech... mother of all bubbles... revenue growth rate slows." Software companies (like Salesforce/CRM) and Hyperscalers (like Microsoft/MSFT) are seeing revenue deceleration. The "AI narrative" is insufficient to prop up valuations when growth slows. The speaker explicitly mentions being short "all four" hyperscalers and software. Short Tech and Software as the bubble deflates. Re-acceleration of revenue growth or a Fed pivot sparking a liquidity rally.
XLK SHORT
IGV SHORT
MSFT SHORT
CRM SHORT
"Housing is a big recent addition... housing is definitely going to see a resurgence in demand." This is a second-order effect of the Bond trade. As the economy slows (Quad 4), bond yields crash. Lower yields mean lower mortgage rates, which immediately stimulates housing demand despite the broader economic slowdown. Long Homebuilders as a rate-sensitive proxy. If yields stay high (Quad 3 persists), housing remains under pressure.
ITB LONG
XHB LONG
"Quad 3 means short the financials... If you're still long like JP Morgan... we're short those." In a stagflationary (Quad 3) or recessionary (Quad 4) environment, credit risk rises and yield curves behave unfavorably for bank margins. Financials are explicitly named as a sector to short. Short large-cap financials. A "soft landing" where credit quality remains pristine.
XLF SHORT
JPM SHORT
"Japan... exports just went from essentially flatlining... to up 16.8% year-over-year." While the US is slowing, Japan is in "Global Quad 1" (Growth accelerating). The massive jump in exports signals a cyclical recovery in the Japanese economy, making it a divergence play against the US. Long Japanese Equities. Currency volatility (Yen fluctuations) impacting returns.
EWJ LONG
"The things that do well [in Quad 4] are gold, bonds, and utilities." As the economy enters a deflationary slowdown (Quad 4), investors flee to safety and yield. Utilities (bond proxies) and Gold (store of value/currency hedge) historically outperform when growth collapses. Long Defensive Sectors and Precious Metals. Rising real rates (if inflation falls faster than nominal yields).
GLD LONG
XLU LONG
"We're long steel stocks... We're long water. I think water is a big idea long term." Despite the tech selloff, "unexciting" cyclical and thematic trades are working. The speaker explicitly names Steel and the Water ETF (AQWA) as current long positions based on his signals. Long Niche Real Assets. Global industrial slowdown hurting steel demand.
SLX LONG
AQWA LONG
"It's down 45%... that is a crash... inviting Wall Street to their party was one of the biggest mistakes." Institutional adoption marked the cycle top. The asset is in a downtrend (crash mode). The speaker emphasizes he is not "faith-based" and the current signal is bearish/broken. Avoid or Short Bitcoin until the signal reverses. A sudden sentiment shift or regulatory catalyst sparking a rally.
BITO AVOID
IBIT AVOID
14:01
Mar 01
Mar 01
MAGS
QQQ
SPY
▾
The "MAGS" ETF (Magnificent 7) has explicitly "broken this support level... to the downside with strong volume." Similarly, the Nasdaq is now making "lower highs and lower lows," which is the technical definition of a downtrend, and has been rejected at resistance. The "Mag 7" act as the market's heavyweight boxers; where they go, the indices follow. Since the leaders (MAGS) have already broken down, the broader tech index (Nasdaq) is confirming the weakness. This weakness in the leaders signals the "AI bubble" is beginning to unfold, and capital is fleeing the sector. SHORT. The trend in Tech has reversed from up to down. The "Buy the Dip" dynamic is invalid here as the structure has broken. The S&P 500 is still holding up; if the broad market refuses to roll over, tech could see a dead-cat bounce before the drop.
MAGS SHORT
QQQ SHORT
The S&P 500 is currently "still rising" with price above the 20, 50, and 150-day moving averages. Vermeulen states, "We're still long... until proven wrong." However, the S&P 500 typically follows the Nasdaq. With the Nasdaq already in a downtrend and a "20% crash" predicted due to an economic reset, the S&P is the last domino standing. The trade is to wait for the S&P to break its trendline (like the Nasdaq did) to confirm the "Stage 4 decline." WATCH. Remain Long only as long as the uptrend holds, but prepare to exit or flip Short immediately upon a trend break, as a "precipitous fall" is expected. Selling too early while the "rising tide" is still technically intact.
SPY WATCH
15:45
Feb 26
Feb 26
CORN
USO
CPER
FCX
SCCO
▾
"Three times in the last 17 years, the price of corn has doubled from that $350 to $4 a bushel range up to almost $8... currently you're about four... low fours right now." Agricultural commodities trade at their cost of production during surplus years. Corn is currently at this "floor" price. The downside is mathematically limited to the break-even price (~5% drop), while a single weather event (drought) historically triggers a 100% rally. Long corn as a portfolio stabilizer with asymmetric upside. Continued perfect weather leads to bumper crops, keeping prices sideways/dead money for an extended period.
CORN LONG
"I am convinced you sell the rallies... There continues to be plenty of oil in the world. I'm a $50 oil guy." Geopolitical spikes (war fears) are temporary noise. The structural reality is oversupply. Therefore, any price spike driven by conflict news should be faded (sold) rather than chased, as the price will gravitate back down to the $50 equilibrium. Short oil futures or ETFs on geopolitical spikes. A major, sustained disruption in the Middle East (e.g., closure of the Strait of Hormuz) that physically removes supply for months.
USO SHORT
"AI demand for electricity... that's just enormous... until somebody starts predicting that we even have enough copper, copper is probably a buy on the dips." AI data centers require massive grid upgrades. These upgrades are copper-intensive. Current supply cannot meet this projected demand. Therefore, price pullbacks are liquidity events to accumulate exposure before the structural shortage bites. Long copper exposure (via futures or miners). Global recession reducing industrial demand; rapid substitution of copper with aluminum in transmission lines.
CPER LONG
FCX LONG
SCCO LONG
"For whatever reason, my entire life, I've owned the silver ETFs versus the gold ETFs... I would on the dips buy buy more silver." Silver often acts as a "high beta" version of gold but with industrial utility. The speaker prefers this volatility and utility mix over pure gold exposure. Overweight Silver relative to Gold. Industrial slowdown (silver is 50% industrial demand) causing it to underperform gold during a recession.
SLV LONG
"XRP has a use case... make money move better and faster... You can move money from New York to Tokyo in something like 3 to 15 seconds using the XRPL." The current banking system (nostro/vostro accounts) traps capital inefficiently. As real-world assets (RWAs) get tokenized and cross-border payments seek efficiency, XRP's ledger provides a superior settlement layer, driving demand for the token. Long XRP as a utility play on financial plumbing upgrades. Regulatory crackdowns or adoption of competing blockchains/stablecoins by major banks (e.g., JPM Coin).
XRP LONG
"China bought their 12 million metric tons... rumored Trump has said that they will buy another 8 million... If they were to do that again, the US soybean balance sheet would tighten up." Economically, China *should* buy from Brazil (cheaper). If they buy from the US, it is purely a political decision to appease the US administration. A confirmed purchase of 8M tons would distort the supply/demand balance and spike US prices. Watch for confirmation of Chinese purchases before entering; currently neutral as global supply is adequate. China ignores political pressure and buys exclusively from Brazil, leaving US farmers with a surplus.
SOYB WATCH
17:20
Feb 24
Feb 24
TBT
BIL
QQQ
MAGS
GLD
▾
Pento explicitly states he is "short the long end of the yield curve" and notes the US faces a $9 trillion debt maturity wall. With annual deficits projected to hit $4-6 trillion in a recession, there are insufficient natural buyers for US debt. Unless the Fed monetizes everything (hyperinflation), yields on the long end must rise significantly to attract capital, crushing long-term bond prices. SHORT Long-Term Treasuries (or LONG inverse ETFs like TBT). The Fed implements full Yield Curve Control (YCC), capping rates regardless of inflation.
TBT SHORT
TLT SHORT
Pento states he is "overweight the short end of the Treasury yield curve" and holds cash. In a fragile "Sector 3" environment that could tip into "Sector 1" (deflation/crash), short-term treasuries offer yield without the duration risk of long bonds. They act as "dry powder" to deploy when asset prices eventually correct. LONG Short-Term Treasuries. Rapid rate cuts by the Fed in response to a crisis would lower yield, though capital would remain preserved.
BIL LONG
SHV LONG
Pento is "underweight" the Mag 7 (only a 2% position) and calls AI a "crazed overinvestment" where ROI is based on debt issuance, not cash flow. He draws a direct parallel to Cisco in 2000—great technology but massive overvaluation. As the "AI moat" breaks and debt servicing costs rise, the valuation premium for hyperscalers will collapse. SHORT Big Tech / Nasdaq. The "melt-up" continues longer than expected due to continued Fed liquidity injections.
QQQ SHORT
MAGS SHORT
Pento says to "own gold" and is looking to "re-enter silver on a pullback" (noting silver is trading in the low $80s in this 2026 scenario). Precious metals serve as the primary hedge against the two extreme outcomes: "Sector 5" (Stagflation/Hyperinflation) or the monetary debasement required to keep the sovereign debt bubble afloat. LONG Precious Metals. A "Sector 1" liquidity crunch (deflationary crash) often causes gold/silver to sell off initially as investors raise cash.
GLD LONG
SLV LONG
Pento notes home price-to-income ratios are at record highs and prices have already begun to crash in hubs like Florida and Texas. To restore historical affordability, home prices need to drop 40-50%. This devaluation will crush homebuilder margins and likely bankrupt highly leveraged regional banks exposed to real estate. SHORT Homebuilders. The Fed lowers rates aggressively, temporarily re-inflating the housing bubble.
ITB SHORT
XHB SHORT
Pento explicitly states he is "overweight international markets" while being underweight US Tech. With US valuations (Buffett Indicator) at 230% of GDP, international markets offer better relative value and less exposure to the specific "AI bubble" dynamics inflating the S&P 500. LONG International Equities. Global contagion; if the US sneezes, the world often catches a cold.
VXUS LONG
EFA LONG
Pento mentions, "The energy complex looks interesting to me." Energy is a tangible asset class that performs well in "Sector 5" (inflation/stagflation) scenarios and has been underinvested relative to tech. It serves as a hedge against the devaluation of the currency. LONG Energy Sector. A deep global recession ("Sector 1") would crush demand for oil and gas.
XLE LONG
14:01
Feb 22
Feb 22
CPER
FCX
COPX
PPLT
PALL
▾
"I'm getting a large hill of copper right now... Copper is just going to be a awesome tidal wave of profits for me in due course." The "AI War" between the US and China is fundamentally an energy war ("AI is just energy"). Building the infrastructure to support AI dominance requires massive electrical grid expansion. Copper is the non-negotiable physical input for this energy transmission. Long exposure via physical copper ETFs (CPER) or major producers (FCX) is the play on the "AI = Energy" thesis. Global recession dampening industrial demand; substitution of copper with aluminum in transmission lines.
CPER LONG
FCX LONG
COPX LONG
"Platinum and palladium as in my world, in my model, they'll go one to one with gold... They only make 200 tons of platinum a year and they only make 200 tons of palladium." The market priced these metals for death assuming EVs would replace ICE cars. However, the grid cannot support full EV adoption ("We haven't got enough electricity"), leading to a resurgence in hybrids and gas cars. These vehicles require catalytic converters (Palladium for gas, Platinum for diesel). With supply fixed and concentrated in unstable regions (Russia, South Africa), renewed demand creates a massive squeeze. Long Platinum (PPLT) and Palladium (PALL) as a mean-reversion and supply-crunch trade. rapid breakthrough in battery technology or grid capacity; geopolitical stability in Russia/South Africa increasing supply.
PPLT LONG
PALL LONG
"I've got a lump of gold... quite likely another one, two, or $3,000 an ounce." Despite the price already being high, the momentum is intact. He views Gold as a standard asset that has broken out technically. While he admits he "should" sell to rotate into higher beta assets, he expects the run to continue significantly higher. Hold/Long trend following. A sudden drop in volatility or a hawkish shift in central bank policy strengthening the dollar.
GLD LONG
"I'm out of silver... Until that sinks up and the volatility comes down, we won't know what's going to happen next because volatility... is a sign that the market doesn't know." High volatility is not an opportunity here; it is "noise." The market is confused. The smart money (Chambers) has taken profit ("two or three houses worth") and is sitting on the sidelines until price action stabilizes and correlates with Gold again. Avoid new positions until volatility compresses. Silver could "melt up" irrationally, leaving sidelined investors behind.
SLV AVOID
15:54
Feb 19
Feb 19
XLI
XLE
IGV
XLK
GLD
▾
"Industrials are leading... S&P 500 earnings on in the industrial sector... are up 26% right now year-over-year... Two months ago, right now, they expected to be down." When a sector shifts from expected negative growth to massive positive growth (26%), it indicates a fundamental economic re-acceleration that the market is currently pricing in. Leadership in cyclicals confirms a healthy economy, not a recession. LONG Industrials as a play on economic resilience and earnings surprises. A sudden economic rollover or manufacturing contraction.
XLI LONG
"Energy... it's trading virtually where it was in 2008... Yet, it's starting just now to break out... 100% of all energy stocks are above their 200 day moving average." Energy has been dead money for 18 years (since 2008). A breakout from an 18-year base, combined with perfect technical breadth (100% > 200DMA), signals the start of a secular trend change, likely driven by sticky inflation and global growth. LONG Energy as a momentum and value breakout play. A sharp drop in oil prices due to demand destruction.
XLE LONG
"Short interest on XLK has absolutely soared... Software companies have the lowest valuation since 2013... We actually added some little bit of software." The market has panic-sold software due to AI disruption fears (similar to the "Deep Seek" panic a year prior). High short interest combined with decade-low valuations creates a classic contrarian "short squeeze" and mean-reversion setup. LONG Software/Tech as a contrarian value play against extreme negative sentiment. AI actually does permanently destroy the business models of legacy software companies (the "Blockbuster" risk).
IGV LONG
XLK LONG
"We added gold... There have been periods of five to seven years throughout history where stocks and gold were higher together... Materials... haven't done all that well... doing good this year." In a "3% inflation world" (sticky inflation) with rising geopolitical tensions, hard assets like Gold and Materials act as necessary portfolio diversifiers that can perform alongside equities, unlike bonds which failed in 2022. LONG Gold and Materials for diversification and inflation protection. A return to disinflation (2% or lower) or a very hawkish Fed crushing commodity prices.
GLD LONG
XLB LONG
"South Korea is up 35%... Most European stock markets are up high single digits... We have a good deal of international exposure." The US market dominance (Mag 7) is fading as rotation occurs. International markets are breaking out to new highs after lagging for years. Capital is rotating from expensive US Tech to cheaper global cyclicals. LONG International Developed Markets (specifically South Korea and Europe). A strong US Dollar crushing international returns or a global recession.
EWY LONG
EFA LONG
"We own some Bitcoin... If you overlaid software relative strength... with Bitcoin, they're like a perfect match... It probably will be an opportunity we look back a year from now." Bitcoin is trading as a high-beta proxy for the Software sector. Since the strategist views Software as oversold and at a valuation bottom, Bitcoin is implicitly at a similar bottom after its correction (from 126k to ~65k). LONG Bitcoin as a high-risk recovery play correlated to the software sector rebound. Regulatory crackdowns or a breakdown in the correlation with tech/software.
BTC LONG
15:45
Feb 17
Feb 17
SLV
UUP
TLT
EEM
CPER
▾
"I sold all my physical metals... The short-term chart is very bearish." He notes Gold has a "bear flag" pointing to a 11-20% drop, and Silver could fall to $28. While long-term bullish ($5k+ Gold), the short-term technicals indicate a "liquidity flush." In a financial reset (Stage 4), metals often get sold off alongside equities to cover margin calls. He is waiting for a washout (Silver ~$50 or lower) to re-enter. AVOID (Cash out and wait for lower prices). Geopolitical escalation causes an immediate safe-haven bid, invalidating the bearish technical pattern.
SLV AVOID
GLD AVOID
"When we see stage 4 declines hit, usually the dollar index outperforms... In 2022... the US dollar rallied about 17%." In a global deflationary event or financial reset, capital flees to the safety of the US Dollar. As equities and foreign currencies collapse, the USD strengthens (the "Milkshake Theory" dynamic). LONG (Defensive Play). The Fed cuts rates aggressively earlier than expected, weakening the dollar.
UUP LONG
"The bond ETF like TLT could come back to life. There could be an opportunity in bonds as the stock market falls." As the economy rolls over into a recession (Stage 4), interest rates typically fall, and investors rush into safe-haven Treasuries. This causes bond prices (TLT) to rise while stocks fall. WATCH (Look for entry as stocks break down). Stagflation (high inflation + recession) would hurt both bonds and stocks simultaneously.
TLT WATCH
"When the stock market actually enters a stage four decline... We see all of the international markets move in sync." Investors often mistakenly buy Emerging Markets (EEM) for diversification. However, in a liquidity crisis, correlations go to 1. EEM often leads the US market to the downside. There is no hiding place in foreign equities during a US recession. AVOID. A specific country (e.g., India) decouples from the global trend, though Vermeulen views this as unlikely.
EEM AVOID
"It looks like it has put in a top... huge price that ran up and then it got slammed with selling big volume." Copper is a barometer for the global economy ("Dr. Copper"). The chart shows distribution selling (big money exiting). A breakdown here confirms the thesis of a global economic slowdown/reset. AVOID (or SHORT). A massive Chinese stimulus package could artificially bid up industrial metals.
CPER AVOID
"The S&P 500... is still in an uptrend. We are actually long the S&P 500 here still... The moving averages are still layered properly." Despite his bearish macro outlook, Vermeulen follows price, not predictions. The S&P 500 is above its 150-day moving average, meaning the "tide is rising." He will remain long until the trend technically reverses, even if other sectors are failing. LONG (Trend Following). The NASDAQ is dragging the market down; if SPY breaks below the 150-day MA, the trade flips to short/cash immediately.
SPY LONG
"The NASDAQ definitely showing a lot more weakness... making a series of lower highs... definition of a downtrend." "The Mag 7 has already done what the NASDAQ I think is about to do... broken this support level." Tech leadership has fractured. The "Mag 7" (tracked by MAGS) have broken support, and the NASDAQ (QQQ) has been rejected at resistance. Vermeulen explicitly states he has "closed out our NASDAQ position" because it lost momentum. AVOID (or SHORT if aggressive). A sudden rotation back into tech if AI sentiment reignites.
QQQ AVOID
MAGS AVOID
14:00
Feb 15
Feb 15
XLF
KRE
BTC
GOLD
COPX
▾
Steno argues that Kevin Warsh wants to shrink the Fed balance sheet, but cannot do so without causing a liquidity crisis in the repo market (as seen in Q4). The only way to shrink the Fed balance sheet safely is to allow private banks to take on more leverage. This requires rolling back post-2008 regulations, specifically the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR). Steno predicts this easing will free up "trillions" in capacity. A rollback of leverage constraints allows banks to expand their balance sheets and profitability, creating a massive tailwind for the financial sector. If the administration fails to pass regulatory easing, the Fed cannot shrink its balance sheet without breaking the repo market.
XLF LONG
KRE LONG
Steno notes that the upcoming relaxation of bank leverage rules (SLR) will allow for "indefinite leverage" similar to the 2004-2007 era. Increased bank leverage results in a flood of cheap funding and liquidity entering the system. Steno explicitly states this will result in "cheaper funding for your crypto bags." Crypto is a direct beneficiary of increased systemic liquidity and cheaper cost of capital. Regulatory delays or a sudden pivot back to hawkish monetary policy to combat inflation.
BTC LONG
Steno is "fully out" of Silver but holds Gold (specifically Barrick), Copper miners, and Rare Earth metals. While the metals trade is strong due to geopolitics, Silver has become a speculative mania (illiquid relative to trading volume). Gold and Copper offer the same thematic exposure but with significantly deeper liquidity and lower volatility-adjusted risk. Long the miners and underlying metals as a safer way to play the commodities supercycle. A strengthening US Dollar or a deflationary bust could hurt commodity prices.
GOLD LONG
COPX LONG
REMX LONG
Steno sold his entire Silver position two weeks prior. He notes that on a single Friday, the SLV ETF turnover was $40 billion (40% of annual mining supply), signaling extreme speculation. When paper trading volume dwarfs physical supply to this degree, it indicates a "blowoff top" or extreme fragility. Steno advises staying out despite the temptation to chase. The risk/reward in Silver is poor compared to Gold/Copper due to extreme volatility and speculative frothing. Silver could continue to melt up irrationally in a "meme stock" fashion before crashing.
SLV AVOID
15:15
Feb 14
Feb 14
BTC
IBIT
IWM
UUP
XLI
▾
"The overall macro backdrop... usually leads to a situation where after we see that massive economic reaceleration, there's a big movement of capital into more risk assets... Bitcoin specifically." The convergence of a weakening dollar, stable inflation, and rising ISM (business cycle acceleration) historically triggers a "Risk On" environment. The speaker explicitly links this macro setup to a capital rotation back into Bitcoin, noting that spot buying via ETPs (like BlackRock's IBIT) drives price discovery. LONG. If the "economic re-acceleration" fails to materialize or if the Trump administration's liquidity plans do not offset tightening elsewhere.
BTC LONG
IBIT LONG
"I don't think either of those things are related to the overall broadening of the bull run that we're seeing in... the Russell 2000 or the acceleration of the economy." The speaker cites the Russell 2000 (Small Caps) as the primary evidence of the "broadening" economic expansion. As the ISM Manufacturing index rises (targeting 60), cyclical small-cap stocks historically outperform defensive sectors. LONG. Retail spending decline or credit issues (though the speaker currently dismisses these as minor headwinds).
IWM LONG
"The DXY has been dropping... The dollar's weakening... usually what we see lead into a significant business cycle acceleration." A falling US Dollar (DXY) is a prerequisite for the speaker's "Expansion Phase" thesis. Shorting the dollar ETF (UUP) aligns with the expectation of a weaker dollar fueling asset prices and global growth. SHORT. Inflation spiking, forcing the Fed to "slam on the brakes" and raise rates, which would strengthen the dollar.
UUP SHORT
"The ISM manufacturing PMI is accelerated back above 50, and there are estimates that it could go above 60." The ISM Manufacturing Index is the primary gauge for the industrial economy. A move from 50 to 60 represents a massive boom in manufacturing activity. The logical trade for a manufacturing boom is the Industrial Select Sector (XLI). LONG. ISM data is a "lagging indicator" and could reverse if consumer demand collapses.
XLI LONG
15:45
Feb 12
Feb 12
INDA
FXI
QQQ
USO
XLE
▾
Gertken advises investors to "increase your holdings of emerging markets" specifically naming "India, Mexico" due to structural reforms and manufacturing shifts. As supply chains decouple from China (Friend-shoring), countries like Mexico and India benefit from increased foreign direct investment (FDI) and manufacturing bases. India specifically has managed inflation well and has a growing population workforce. Long India and Mexico ETFs. Global recession dampening export demand; political instability in local markets.
INDA LONG
EWW LONG
China's domestic economy is "extremely depressed," burdened by high debt, and the government is refusing to use a "fiscal bazooka" to reinflate assets. The leadership's focus on security over economics means the private sector will continue to suffer debt deflation. Without a massive stimulus (which Xi is avoiding), there is no catalyst for a sustained equity recovery. Avoid Chinese Equities. Xi Jinping suddenly pivots to massive fiscal stimulus (the "bazooka").
FXI AVOID
MCHI AVOID
"The US is still the place to be." Gertken disagrees with the "sell America" narrative, citing independent central banking, tech leadership, and favorable demographics (immigration). Despite the noise, the US remains the "cleanest dirty shirt" in the global economy. Until Europe stabilizes or China fixes its debt crisis, global capital has nowhere else to go for safety and growth. Overweight US Equities. US political instability or a severe recession.
QQQ LONG
SPY LONG
Gertken states that US strikes on Iran are "likely" this year and that the Iranian regime is unstable. He explicitly says, "In the short term you want to be long oil." While global demand is wobbly (due to China), the geopolitical risk premium is underpriced. A kinetic conflict or regime collapse in Iran could trigger a massive supply constraint, forcing prices higher regardless of the demand backdrop. Long Oil futures or Energy Equities as a geopolitical hedge. China's economy collapses faster than expected, crushing global demand; US/Iran tensions de-escalate unexpectedly.
USO LONG
XLE LONG
"The Americans clearly have the advantage... not only innovating these large language models, but also the semiconductor stack." Geopolitics is now a tech race. The US has a structural advantage in the "micro level" of compute and chips. If the US wins the AI race (which Gertken believes they are winning), capital will continue to concentrate in US tech leaders rather than Chinese competitors who are "5 or 10 years behind." Long US Semiconductor and AI infrastructure plays. Regulatory crackdowns or a hot war over Taiwan destroying chip supply chains.
NVDA LONG
MSFT LONG
SMH LONG
Gold is rising due to fears that "US governance is collapsing" and potential future capital controls, alongside Chinese investors "hoarding" commodities because their property market is broken. Precious metals are acting as a hedge against the US fiscal situation and a safe haven for Chinese capital trapped by domestic deflation. As long as US debt concerns persist and China's economy lags, this bid remains. Long Gold and Silver. US fiscal discipline returns unexpectedly or the Fed tightens aggressively, strengthening the dollar.
GLD LONG
SLV LONG
15:45
Feb 10
Feb 10
PYPL
FLR
PPLT
PALL
CPER
▾
"I've just bought PayPal... 11 PE or is it 7 PE... big fat business... doing a lot of business for a long time and it's very dull." In a market with "astronomical" valuations for AI darlings, capital will rotate into deep value, cash-flow-positive legacy tech stocks that are being priced for death but are actually stable. LONG. A contrarian value play based on multiple compression and market overreaction to the "old tech" narrative. Continued market preference for growth over value; competition from newer fintech.
PYPL LONG
"This is one that I recently bought. It's called Fluor... They go around and they say, 'Oh, you want to build a nuclear power station? We'll help you.'" AI data centers require massive baseload power. Renewables aren't sufficient, leading to a nuclear renaissance. Fluor is one of the few engineering firms capable of managing complex nuclear construction projects, giving them pricing power in a supply-constrained market. LONG. An infrastructure pick specifically levered to the "AI needs Energy" thesis. Regulatory hurdles for nuclear; cost overruns typical in large construction projects.
FLR LONG
"They only make 200 tons of platinum a year... internal combustion engine going to go away... now that's gone into reverse." The grid cannot support a full EV fleet while simultaneously powering AI data centers. This forces a longer lifespan for gas/diesel cars (ICE) and hybrids. ICE vehicles require catalytic converters (using Platinum/Palladium). With supply concentrated in unstable regions (Russia, South Africa) and demand increasing unexpectedly, prices must rise. LONG. A supply/demand mismatch trade driven by the failure of the rapid EV transition narrative. rapid battery breakthroughs; stabilization of supply from Russia/South Africa.
PPLT LONG
PALL LONG
"Copper is the element that boils it [the ocean]... shipping your nuclear power to your hyperscaler... you need copper and lots of it." AI is fundamentally an energy arbitrage trade. Moving that energy from generation (nuclear plants) to consumption (data centers) requires physical transmission infrastructure. Copper is non-substitutable for high-efficiency transmission, creating a "tidal wave" of demand against a structural supply deficit. LONG. The "pick and shovel" play for the AI energy crisis. Global recession dampening industrial demand; substitution with aluminum in some applications.
CPER LONG
FCX LONG
"Gold is for war... Gold is the international currency of conflict." Central banks (specifically those near conflict zones like Poland) are accumulating gold not as an inflation hedge, but as a strategic sovereign asset to bypass sanctions or currency failures during kinetic war. As US-China tensions rise, this sovereign bid provides a price floor and upside catalyst. LONG. A geopolitical hedge rather than a monetary one. De-escalation of global conflicts; strong USD headwinds.
GLD LONG
"I'm out of silver... until silver sinks up with gold again... volatility equals noise and noise equals lack of knowledge." Silver has decoupled from fundamentals and is driven by retail FOMO ("up like a rocket, down like a rock"). The current high volatility indicates the market has no consensus on price, making it a gambling vehicle rather than an investment right now. AVOID. Wait for volatility to compress and correlation with gold to return before re-entering. Missing a parabolic move if retail mania returns immediately.
SLV AVOID
"I'm a bit frightened about the S&P chart right now... Someone has definitely pulled a handle on something... hyperscalers are draining large amounts of liquidity." Recent chart patterns suggest a regime change or a major player repositioning. The massive capital expenditure by "hyperscalers" (Big Tech) is sucking liquidity out of the broader market, potentially leaving the rest of the S&P 500 vulnerable until the Fed injects more liquidity. WATCH. Caution is warranted due to technical anomalies and liquidity drains. Fed intervention (money printing) could trigger a melt-up, invalidating the caution.
SPY WATCH
14:00
Feb 08
Feb 08
HOOD
SPY
TSLA
GME
▾
Green notes that commission-free trading is funded by Payment for Order Flow (PFOF), stating, "I believe Citadel pays about $4 billion a year to Robin Hood so they can see what the Robin Hood retail traders are doing." With retail trading now comprising 17-20% of the market (up from 10% in 1995), the "facilitators" of this volume are the primary beneficiaries. Robinhood monetizes the user base regardless of whether the users make money. LONG. The business model is validated by the massive checks written by market makers like Citadel to access retail flow. Regulatory changes to PFOF or a decline in retail trading participation.
HOOD LONG
Green states that passive strategies act as a "systematic algorithm" where "did you give me cash? If so then buy everything in proportion to its market capitalization." He notes that 85 cents of every retirement dollar now flows into these strategies. Because these vehicles receive "ungodly amounts of cash" daily (Vanguard raises Simplify's total AUM every week), there is a persistent, price-insensitive bid under the largest market-cap stocks. As long as net flows are positive, the indices are mathematically forced to drift higher. LONG the S&P 500 (SPY) to align with the dominant mechanical flow of capital. A reversal in flows (net redemptions) would trigger the algorithm to sell indiscriminately ("passive sell pressure"), though the trigger for this was asked but not answered in the provided text.
SPY LONG
Green explains that "index arbitrage" is the single largest hedge fund strategy, citing "Tesla soaring prior to inclusion in the S&P 500" as the prime example. Price action in large-cap names is often driven by funds front-running mandatory index buying rather than fundamental improvements. While the S&P inclusion trade is in the past for Tesla, the stock remains a proxy for how index mechanics distort valuation. NEUTRAL. The easy "inclusion arbitrage" money has been made, but the stock is now supported by the passive bid described in the SPY thesis. If passive flows reverse, high-beta constituents like TSLA suffer from the same mechanical selling pressure.
TSLA NEUTRAL
Green describes the mechanics of retail flow: "If the retail traders want to bid up GameStop... We're going to need to buy more GameStop." He explains that market makers are "delta hedging," buying the stock simply to offset the risk of call options sold to retail. The price movement is mechanical. Market makers do not care if the company is good or bad; they are forced to buy when retail buys options (gamma squeeze). This creates explosive volatility disconnected from fundamentals. WATCH. This is a structural play on volatility and retail sentiment, not an investment in the business. Once retail option volume dries up, the mechanical bid from market makers disappears, leading to rapid mean reversion.
GME WATCH
12:00
Feb 07
Feb 07
IWM
ETH
KRE
BAC
C
▾
"The Russell 2000 is breaking out... this breakout here seems like this break of a large cup and handle and it seems like it's likely to continue much higher." The speaker notes that the "Mag 7 have turned into the Lag 7" and the market is broadening. A breakout in the Russell 2000, supported by strong ISM Manufacturing data (New Orders > 57), signals a rotation into cyclical and mid-cap stocks. The IWM ETF is the direct instrument to capture this rotation. LONG. The breakout could be a "fake out" and get rejected, returning to the previous range.
IWM LONG
"Ethereum tends to follow this chart of the Russell 2000 very tightly... This is also bullish for the rest of the altcoin space if those historical correlations hold." Since the Russell 2000 is confirming a breakout and economic conditions (ISM PMI) are accelerating, the historical correlation dictates that Ethereum (and high-beta alts) will follow this move upward. ETH is the high-beta play on the economic recovery narrative. LONG. Decoupling of the correlation between traditional finance risk assets (Russell) and crypto assets.
ETH LONG
"The reason the regional banks are struggling is because the... globally important banks, they put in all this legislation to make it effectively impossible to start a bank... all these regional banks are up against the wall and... at risk of being closed." The regulatory environment is designed to favor G-SIBs (Global Systemically Important Banks) at the expense of smaller institutions. This creates a toxic environment for regional banks, leading to consolidation or failure. Investors should avoid the sector represented by KRE. AVOID (or Short). Government intervention or bailouts specifically targeting regional bank liquidity could squeeze shorts.
KRE AVOID
"The globally systemically important banks in the United States got the Senate Banking Committee and basically the entire financial regulatory apparatus... aligned with them." If the regulatory game is rigged against regional banks and in favor of the "Too Big To Fail" institutions, the large money center banks (JPM, BAC, Citigroup) will gain market share and assets as smaller competitors are regulated out of existence. LONG. Systemic financial crisis that drags down all banking equities regardless of size.
BAC LONG
C LONG
JPM LONG
"Are we going to allow the people that have all the power and control to co-opt crypto... or are we going to invest ideologically... and choose an economic system that values individual sovereignty." The speaker explicitly mentions banks taking out ads against Brian Armstrong (CEO of Coinbase) calling him "Big Crypto." The trade here is the "Ideological Investor" thesis: buying the infrastructure of the new financial system that is under attack by the old guard. Coinbase is the primary equity proxy for this battle. LONG. Regulatory enforcement actions or successful legislative attempts by the banking lobby to cripple crypto on-ramps.
COIN LONG
15:45
Feb 05
Feb 05
BE
ENPH
NXT
UUUU
COPX
▾
AI hyperscalers are announcing massive numbers, but the physical power grid is a major bottleneck. Connecting data centers to the grid takes too long. Bloom Energy (BE) provides decentralized fuel cells (running on biogas/nat gas) that allow data centers to bypass grid connection delays. LONG as a solution to the "AI Power Bottleneck." Volatility in natural gas prices or competition from other decentralized power sources.
BE LONG
Despite the Trump administration's aversion to green energy, Andreas notes that ~50% of the US population still wants solar solutions (the "middle finger to Trump" trade). Enphase (ENPH) provides decentralized battery/solar solutions for households. Nextracker (NXT) (referred to as "Next Power" in the video but described as the tracker/software optimizing yield as the sun moves) is an "anti-China" solar trade because its supply chain is less dependent on China. LONG on decentralized solar infrastructure that works independent of federal subsidies. Punitive tariffs or complete removal of tax credits by the new administration.
ENPH LONG
NXT LONG
Andreas states that the West has officially decoupled from China regarding critical minerals and the US administration plans to implement price floors for rare earths. Building a Western supply chain for rare earths is impossible without price floors due to profitability issues. Energy Fuels (UUUU) is unique because it is both a Uranium player (energy security) and a Rare Earths processor (strategic decoupling), solving two geopolitical problems at once. LONG as a top pick for the domestic US Capex and supply chain onshoring cycle. Failure of the US administration to implement promised price floors or delays in processing capabilities.
UUUU LONG
Central banks are buying hard assets to protect reserves from seizure. Andreas sold his Silver (SLV) due to extreme volatility but remains invested in Gold and Copper miners. Silver is too small and speculative (ETF turnover was 40% of yearly mining supply in one day). Gold (Barrick - GOLD) and Copper (COPX) offer much deeper liquidity and better volatility-adjusted returns for the "hard asset" trade. LONG the miners as a safer, leveraged play on the underlying commodity bull market. A strengthening US Dollar or a deflationary bust crashing commodity prices.
COPX LONG
GOLD LONG
Private Credit firms have allocated roughly 25% of buyout deal value to the Software sector over the last few years. If the "Death of SaaS" thesis plays out and AI commoditizes software, Private Credit firms like Apollo (APO) are the ones "holding the bags" on these massive leveraged buyouts. Andreas notes Apollo and Bitcoin have become the "same trade" due to correlation. AVOID or WATCH closely as a proxy for software sector credit risk. The SaaS sector proves resilient, or the Fed eases regulations (ESLR) allowing banks/private credit to lever up further, bailing out bad loans.
APO AVOID
15:45
Feb 03
Feb 03
AVGO
AAPL
QQQ
ORCL
MSFT
▾
"You look at a basket of Microsoft, Broadcom, Apple, Tesla, Netflix, and Palantir... They're actually going bearish trend." These specific tickers represent the "software and services" weakness that has dragged on the market. They are currently in a bearish trend, but they are the key to the "Nasdaq Catch-Up" thesis. Investors should watch these specific names for a bottoming formation to confirm the broader long tech thesis. Watch for trend reversals in this basket to signal the next leg up for the broader market. If these companies break support levels, the "catch-up" trade fails and the Nasdaq could correct.
AVGO WATCH
AAPL WATCH
TSLA WATCH
NFLX WATCH
PLTR WATCH
"The most bullish call with size is going to be for us long the NASDAQ... Oracle is in the gutter... Microsoft being down the way it is... Amazon not moving." The Nasdaq index has held up near highs despite its largest components (Mega Caps) lagging or being in bearish trends. If these giants (Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon) simply stop falling or mean-revert upwards, the index will be forced significantly higher. The "death of the dollar" trade is overblown; global capital has no viable alternative to US markets. Long US Tech Laggards and the Index (QQQ) as a catch-up trade. Continued contraction in credit risk or a failure of software/services companies to bottom out.
QQQ LONG
ORCL LONG
MSFT LONG
AMZN LONG
"Bitcoin is essentially just a release valve for excess liquidity... As soon as the trend went bearish, it started really cascading... We've been sidelined Bitcoin this entire time." Bitcoin is not trading as "digital gold" (a store of value) but as a high-beta liquidity proxy. With credit risk contracting and the asset currently in a bearish trend, it lacks the momentum required to attract bids. Buying now is "bottom fishing" with leverage, which is dangerous. Wait for the trend to flip and for the asset to reclaim its "mid-vamp" range before entering. If credit risk tightens further, Bitcoin will likely lead the downside as the furthest asset out on the risk curve.
BTC NEUTRAL
"Gold's liquidating almost... 21%... Gold shouldn't trade 10% daily ranges... everyone's pulling their bids from the order book." The recent volatility in precious metals indicates a broken market structure where liquidity has evaporated. The move was driven by "silly" retail speculation rather than the macro fundamentals (de-dollarization) that started the rally. Until the order book stabilizes and liquidity returns, the risk of further wash-outs is too high. Avoid metals until volatility compresses; the "blow-off top" dynamic suggests bag-holders are currently trapped. A sudden return of liquidity could squeeze prices back up, but the technical damage suggests a cooling-off period is needed.
GLD AVOID
SLV AVOID
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