The Commodity Crisis Playbook: Position Before It’s Too Late (From A 20-Year Veteran) w/ Ole Hansen

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 14, 2026 at 14:45  |  39:15  |  Milk Road Daily
Speakers
Ole Hansen — Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank

Summary

Ole Hansen analyzes the Strait of Hormuz crisis and its widespread impact on commodity markets, from oil and refined products to fertilizers and industrial metals. He explains how supply disruptions are driving prices higher, shifting the shock from inflation to growth risks, and offers advice on navigating volatile commodity investments with broad exposure and patience.

  • The Strait of Hormuz blockade has caused major oil supply disruptions, leading to high spot prices and backwardation in futures.
  • Diesel and jet fuel prices are soaring due to Middle East refinery outages and crude shortages.
  • The crisis is spreading to other commodities like fertilizers, food (soybean oil, sugar, cotton), and industrial metals.
  • Copper shows resilience supported by energy transition demand, while aluminium faces supply issues from energy intensity.
  • Higher energy costs are transitioning the market focus from inflation shock to global growth risks.
  • Supply constraints in commodities like copper may sustain high prices due to production challenges.
  • Investors are advised to start with broad commodity exposure via ETFs and respect market volatility.
  • The situation is compared to the 2022 European gas crisis, indicating prolonged volatility and logistical nightmares.
Trade Ideas
Ole Hansen Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank 2:55
Oil supply disruption keeps prices high.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis has caused a major oil supply disruption, tightening the market and leading to high spot prices, backwardation in futures, and prolonged elevated prices due to logistical challenges and sustained demand.
WTI BRENT HIGH
Ole Hansen Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank 4:02
Diesel and jet fuel shortages raise prices.
Middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel are in short supply because Middle East crude oil, ideal for refining these products, is not reaching refineries, driving prices up significantly in Europe and Asia.
CRAK HIGH
Ole Hansen Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank 23:14
Energy costs push up food commodity prices.
Higher energy prices are driving up food commodity prices through biofuel links and production costs; for example, soybean oil, sugar, and cotton have seen price increases due to ethanol production and synthetic fiber substitution.
SOYB CANE BAL MED
Ole Hansen Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank 24:10
Fertilizer shortages from gas supply issues.
Fertilizer production in the Middle East is hit because it relies on natural gas, which is in short supply due to the Strait closure, leading to high prices and reduced availability, especially during planting season.
MOO MED
Ole Hansen Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank 26:13
Copper demand from energy transition supports prices.
Copper shows resilience due to supply tightness and strong demand from the energy transition, such as electrification and data centers; it bounced off the 200-day moving average, indicating underlying support and potential for a long-term bull market.
COPPER HIGH
Ole Hansen Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank 29:25
Aluminium supply shortage from energy issues.
Aluminium is energy-intensive, and production in the Middle East is affected by the Strait closure, leading to short supply and price increases.
JJU MED
Ole Hansen Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank 34:49
Broad commodity ETFs for long-term exposure.
For investors new to commodities, starting with broad exposure through commodity ETFs is advisable due to the long-term bull market and sector rotation; the Bloomberg Commodity Index has shown strong returns.
DBC MED
Up Next
2:52
Breaking Down Earnings From JPMorgan, Citi and Wells Fargo
Bloomberg Markets · Apr 14
24:42
This is Apple's Last Chance (N50 AI Smart Glasses)
Bankless · Apr 14
5:06
Hormuz Closure Impact Will Be Felt for Months, Seroka Says
Bloomberg Markets · Apr 14
4:49
Warsh Fed Confirmation Hearing Will Be Next Week, Sen. Scott Says
Bloomberg Markets · Apr 14
2:31
US, Iran Weigh New Talks as Tanker Crosses Hormuz
Bloomberg Markets · Apr 14

This Milk Road Daily video, published April 14, 2026, features Ole Hansen discussing WTI, BRENT, CRAK, SOYB, CANE, BAL, MOO, COPPER, JJU, DBC. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ole Hansen  · Tickers: WTI, BRENT, CRAK, SOYB, CANE, BAL, MOO, COPPER, JJU, DBC