What are Ole Hansen's latest trade ideas?

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has caused a major oil supply disruption, tightening the market and leading to high spot prices, backwardation in futures, and prolonged elevated prices due to logistical challenges and sustained demand.

WTI BRENT HIGH Milk Road Daily Apr 14, 14:45

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy...

▶ YouTube The Commodity Crisis Playbook: Position Before It’s Too Late (From A 20-Year Veteran) w/ Ole Hansen

Fertilizer shortages from gas supply issues.

Fertilizer production in the Middle East is hit because it relies on natural gas, which is in short supply due to the Strait closure, leading to high prices and reduced availability, especially during planting season.

MOO HIGH Milk Road Daily Apr 14, 14:45

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy...

▶ YouTube The Commodity Crisis Playbook: Position Before It’s Too Late (From A 20-Year Veteran) w/ Ole Hansen

Energy costs push up food commodity prices.

Higher energy prices are driving up food commodity prices through biofuel links and production costs; for example, soybean oil, sugar, and cotton have seen price increases due to ethanol production and synthetic fiber substitution.

SOYB CANE BAL HIGH Milk Road Daily Apr 14, 14:45

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy...

▶ YouTube The Commodity Crisis Playbook: Position Before It’s Too Late (From A 20-Year Veteran) w/ Ole Hansen

Copper demand from energy transition supports prices.

Copper shows resilience due to supply tightness and strong demand from the energy transition, such as electrification and data centers; it bounced off the 200-day moving average, indicating underlying support and potential for a long-term bull market.

COPPER HIGH Milk Road Daily Apr 14, 14:45

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy...

▶ YouTube The Commodity Crisis Playbook: Position Before It’s Too Late (From A 20-Year Veteran) w/ Ole Hansen

Broad commodity ETFs for long-term exposure.

For investors new to commodities, starting with broad exposure through commodity ETFs is advisable due to the long-term bull market and sector rotation; the Bloomberg Commodity Index has shown strong returns.

DBC HIGH Milk Road Daily Apr 14, 14:45

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy...

▶ YouTube The Commodity Crisis Playbook: Position Before It’s Too Late (From A 20-Year Veteran) w/ Ole Hansen

Diesel and jet fuel shortages raise prices.

Middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel are in short supply because Middle East crude oil, ideal for refining these products, is not reaching refineries, driving prices up significantly in Europe and Asia.

CRAK HIGH Milk Road Daily Apr 14, 14:45

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy...

▶ YouTube Iran War: Oil Set for Weekly Surge as War Heads Toward 4th Week | The Opening Trade 3/20/2026

Ola Hanson states crude is not pricing in the reality of supply being taken off the table for a long time, citing Qatari LNG damage taking years to repair and a 10 million barrel per day disruption. The physical damage to energy infrastructure (LNG trains, refineries) creates a structural supply deficit that cannot be quickly reversed, even if hostilities cease. This is a larger and more persistent shock than the market (Brent ~$108) currently reflects. The risk is "higher for longer" for crude prices. The market must eventually reprice to reflect the loss of supply, potentially requiring demand destruction to balance. A rapid and sustained de-escalation and ceasefire, coupled with faster-than-expected infrastructure repairs.

BRENT Bloomberg Markets Mar 20, 11:30

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy...

▶ YouTube Iran War: Oil Set for Weekly Surge as War Heads Toward 4th Week | The Opening Trade 3/20/2026

Hanson states he still likes gold, attributing its recent decline to reduced rate cut expectations, a stronger dollar, and profit-taking from a popular, crowded long position. The structural drivers for gold (central bank buying, geopolitical haven demand) are still present, providing a floor. The technical break below $5000 was a signal, but the world "has not become a better place," implying the core bullish thesis isn't broken. Current weakness may be a temporary shakeout rather than a trend reversal. It represents a monitoring opportunity for stabilization and re-entry as other factors (rates, dollar) stabilize. Hawkish central bank momentum continues unabated, real yields keep rising, and the dollar strengthens further.

GOLD Bloomberg Markets Mar 20, 11:30

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy...

▶ YouTube Oil Market Faces 'Higher for Longer' Risk: Saxo Bank

The speaker states the situation "all points to a higher for longer" price scenario because supply has been taken off the table and it "will take time to get that supply back." Damage to Middle Eastern infrastructure and shuttered wells cannot be quickly reversed. This creates a persistent physical supply deficit that supports prices. The dominant market risk is skewed to the upside ("higher for longer"), making a long bias on crude oil the logical positioning. A swift and sustained resolution to the Middle East conflict that enables rapid restoration of oil infrastructure and supply.

WTI Bloomberg Markets Mar 20, 08:02

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy...

▶ YouTube Markets Are ‘Breaking Apart’: What It Means For Gold, Silver, Oil In 2026 | Ole Hansen

Oil is trading in the $60s. Hansen notes that "depletion rates in the order of 6 to 8 million barrels on an annual basis" require massive investment, which current prices do not support. The market is currently complacent due to ample supply, but the lack of CapEx now guarantees a future supply crunch. Prices must rise to the $80-$90 range to make production viable for energy companies facing inflation. Long. The structural deficit is being ignored for short-term political reasons (US midterms). Political intervention to keep prices low during election cycles; demand destruction from a recession.

USO The David Lin Report Feb 16, 21:45

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy...