Martin Toman

Coinbase reported a net loss due to unrealized crypto holdings dropping in value, yet adjusted EBITDA was positive (~$500M). Additionally, "Subscription and services... grew like six times over the last five years." The market is punishing the stock for "paper losses" on its balance sheet while ignoring the rapid growth of its sticky, non-transactional revenue (Subscription & Services). As the company pivots to "agentic e-commerce" and institutional infrastructure, it becomes less correlated to spot crypto prices. LONG. The "hidden gem" thesis relies on the market eventually valuing the durable subscription revenue over the volatile trading fees. Continued crypto bear market suppresses retail engagement; potential margin compression on stablecoin revenue (USDC) if Fed rates drop significantly.

Martin held HYPE and LIGHTER, perpetuals protocols that can benefit from increased volatility, noting HYPE's real-world asset volumes surpassed crypto volumes. Even in down markets, volatility drives trading volumes and revenues for perpetuals exchanges, supporting token value. LONG due to revenue resilience and growth potential from volatility. If volatility decreases or competition intensifies, revenues could drop.

Martin held TESLA for its AI and robotics growth, specifically robo-taxis entering production and Optimus humanoid robots with improved capabilities. Tesla's advancements in autonomous vehicles and robotics may drive stock price appreciation independent of economic cycles. LONG due to long-term growth drivers and product execution. Economic downturn could affect demand, or execution delays might slow growth.

Coinbase's "Base" blockchain is a "layer 2 built on top of Ethereum... whatever happens on Ethereum like Coinbase can profit from that." Coinbase's long-term infrastructure bet (Base) is inextricably linked to Ethereum. As Coinbase pushes "agentic e-commerce" standards, the underlying settlement layer (ETH) benefits from increased utility and transaction volume. LONG. It is the underlying commodity powering the infrastructure Coinbase is building. L2 fragmentation or alternative L1s gaining market share over Ethereum.

Robinhood's earnings are growing despite the crypto slump because "people are still trading stocks and stocks are like S&P, NASDAQ, they are still hitting all-time highs." They also reported 4x growth in prediction markets. Unlike Coinbase, Robinhood is diversified into traditional equities. It acts as a hedge: if crypto lags, HOOD still profits from record-high stock market volumes and new verticals like prediction markets. LONG. It is the preferred vehicle for retail engagement in traditional finance while retaining optionality on a crypto recovery. A correction in the broader stock market (S&P 500) would crush HOOD's primary revenue driver; less institutional moat compared to Coinbase.